🏀 Toledo vs. Akron Prediction: MAC Championship Game Odds & Picks (March 14)
The MAC likely became a two-bid league after Miami (OH) lost, paving the way for either No. 4 seed Toledo or No. 2 seed Akron to earn the conference's NCAA Tournament bid in tonight's championship game between two in-state rivals. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2), and the Zips are listed as the 7-point betting favorite.
My Toledo vs. Akron prediction recognizes that the Zips were arguably the best team in the MAC all season, and should pay that success off with a cover and their third straight NCAA Tournament berth.
Just one day until Selection Sunday, so stay in front of all the action with our college basketball conference tournament guide.
π Toledo vs. Akron picks & odds: MAC Championship Game (March 14)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Akron -7 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | ββββ |
| O/U pick | Over 159.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.95u | ββ |
| Player prop pick | Evan Mahaffey Over 6.5 rebounds (-135 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.74u | βββ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.6 units
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π° Toledo vs. Akron prediction & best bet
Akron -7 (-110)
Akron was the -115 pretournament favorite (53.49% implied odds) over then-undefeated Miami (OH). The Zips reached as high as KenPomβs 52nd-ranked team in adjusted efficiency margin, and their only conference loss was to the RedHawks.
Akron benefits from only having seen Toledo one time, a 10-point home victory. Though Toledo had an eight-point halftime lead, I am concerned about the margin of victory despite how well it shot. That was one of 13 games of the entire college basketball season where a team lost by 10-plus despite making 55% of its threes on at least a 35% attempt rate.
Score prediction: Akron 86 - Toledo 75
π₯ Best Toledo vs. Akron player prop bet
Evan Mahaffey Over 6.5 rebounds (-135)
Akron power forward Evan Mahaffey has major D-I experience playing at Penn State and Ohio State before transferring to the MAC.
Mahaffey is a bully on the offensive glass, ranking ninth in league play with a 9.5% offensive rebounding rate. He should improve upon those numbers against an undersized Toledo team than allowed a 33.5% offensive rebounding rate this season (308th-worst).
Akron's offense was so efficient in the first meeting against Toledo, that its gaudy 1.3 points per possession average was just its 11th-best this season. That should put added pressure on the Toledo offense, and will likely force more bad shots and misses.
I expect Mahaffey to exceed this projected total for the third straight game and fourth in the last five.
π Toledo vs. Akron same-game parlay
bet365 was the most logical sportsbook for this same-game parlay, as it was one of the only ones offering player props at the time of this writing. When more odds become available, bettors should shop around in case they can save some money on juice while not compromising on either the point spread or O/U numbers.
💵 Toledo vs. Akron SGP picks
- Akron -7 (-122)
- Over 159.5 (-116)
- Evan Mahaffey Over 6.5 rebounds (-135)
Best odds: +490 via bet365 (1u -> 4.9u)
π‘ How I'm betting Toledo vs. Akron
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Despite varying levels of confidence in all three plays, each are backed with one unit from my bankroll.
Toledo made 55% of its 3-pointers on a 35.7% 3-point rate in the first meeting. But Akron would likely allow it to bomb away more, as the Rockets are just 1-3 when taking at least 42% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Mahaffey and his brother, Eric, combined for 17 rebounds in the first meeting, while Toledo only had 25 as a team. That has me confident in the Over on Evan's rebounding total, as I'm expecting a lot of offensive rebounds even if it's tougher for defensive boards with Toledo firing away from deep.
π Live Toledo vs. Akron odds: MAC Championship Game
The best sports betting sites that opened with Akron -6.5 were quickly bet up to -7.5. bet365 was the lone sportsbook to reach -8, but that seems like the ceiling for this line before tipoff, as that didn't last long before coming back down to -7.5.
The total had much more movement in comparison, being bet down drastically from an opening number of 163.5. But Akron has scored 85 or more points in four consecutive games against Toledo, so we may see some buyback on the Over throughout the day.
π Toledo vs. Akron betting trends
| Toledo | Statistic | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| 19-14 | W-L record | 28-5 |
| 17-14 | ATS record | 17-14 |
| 13-18 | O/U record | 14-17 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
πΊ How to watch Toledo vs. Akron: MAC Championship Game
- Date: Saturday, March 14
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Rocket Arena (Cleveland)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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