🏀 Texas vs. UCLA Prediction: Tonight's Women's March Madness Final Four Picks
No. 1 seed UCLA has only one blemish on its record this season, and it came at the hands of tonight's opponent, No. 1 Texas. And, the Longhorns are a 1.5-point betting favorite to complete the season sweep and advance to the national championship game tonight. Tipoff from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix is set for 9:30 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN.
My best Texas vs. UCLA prediction, using the latest women's March Madness odds, focuses on what impact UCLA's Lauren Betts can make tonight after being neutralized in the season's first meeting.
🏀 Texas vs. UCLA picks & odds: Women's March Madness Final Four
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas -1.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 134.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 1.36 u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lauren Betts Under 17.5 points | -108 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.09 units
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🏆 Who will win Texas vs. UCLA?
I'm taking Texas to win this game by five. While I expect UCLA to be more competitive than earlier in the season, Texas' defense is fantastic. When the Longhorns shut down Betts again, UCLA won't have anyone who can account for all of her lost points.
Score prediction: Texas 66, UCLA 61
💰 Texas vs. UCLA prediction & best bet
Under 134.5 (-110)
These are two of the best offensive teams in the country, but both are also allowing fewer than 57 points per game. Texas hasn't allowed more than 58 points in the NCAA Tournament, and the Longhorns have held 18 of 19 ranked opponents to 70 or fewer.
When these teams first met, UCLA recorded just 25 points by halftime. But the UCLA defense was also good enough to hold the Longhorns to just 44% shooting from the floor, 6% lower than their season average.
Some of the best sports betting sites are setting this line as low as 132.5, and I expect it to drop at DraftKings before tipoff.
🏀 South Carolina vs. UConn
It's sometimes hard to find value on UConn, and tonight's first Final Four tilt is no different. But, our South Carolina vs. UConn prediction has accomplished just that.
🔥 Best Texas vs. UCLA player prop bet
Lauren Betts Under 17.5 points (-108)
One matchup doesn't define a player, but Betts scored just eight points when these teams met earlier this season.
What worries me about her entering this game is that, despite scoring at least 22 points in two of her three NCAA Tournament games, she's scored 16 or fewer in six of her last eight contests against ranked opponents. In fact, she's scored more than 18 just three times in 15 games against ranked teams this season.
Texas is allowing just 55.9 points per game, which ranks 12th in the country. The Longhorns are holding opponents to 37.9% from the field, and though Betts shot 50% against Texas, the Longhorns' swarming defense only allowed her to take eight shots.
Finally, Betts averages 27.5 minutes per game. She played 37 minutes and still didn't reach double digits during her first outing against Texas.
🚀 Texas vs. UCLA same-game parlay
Unfortunately, FanDuel is alone among the best sports betting apps while offering Betts' Under. Because of that, I need to take Under 132.5 rather than 134.5 for the game total. While that's frustrating, I'm very confident in Texas in this game, especially the Longhorns' defense against Betts.
Considering my final score above comes with a projected total of 127, I'll still wager one unit on this parlay.
💵 Texas vs. UCLA SGP picks
- Texas -1.5
- Under 132.5
- Lauren Betts Under 17.5
Best odds: +343 via Sportsbook (1u -> 3.43u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53-57 | +62.06 units ✅ | +42.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 33-21 | +28.27 units ✅ | +35.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 13-15 | -7.10 units ❌ | -16.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 7-21 | +40.88 units ✅ | +177.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Betts is UCLA's leading scorer, but she hasn't been performing well against the best competition this season, and Texas shut her down early in the year.
Therefore, I'm risking two units on her Under. And because I expect her to struggle, I'm also risking one unit on Texas to cover the spread. And though these offenses are very good, the defenses have been on another level lately, especially the Longhorns' unit. That's why I'm risking 1.5 units on the Under.
📊 Live Texas vs. UCLA odds: Women's March Madness Final Four
Texas opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and the spread has yet to move. I anticipate the public backing Texas, as not only did the Longhorns beat UCLA by double digits earlier this season, but the game was over by halftime.
As for the total, it opened at 134.5, and while it's stayed there at some of the best March Madness betting sites, the number has dropped to 133.5 or 132.5 elsewhere. I don't expect it to sink to 130.5, so I'll confidently play the Under no matter where it lands for this game.
📺 How to watch Texas vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness Final Four
- Date: Friday, April 3
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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