🏀 Texas vs. Purdue Player Props & Picks: Best March Madness Sweet 16 Prop Bets Today
No. 11 Texas Longhorns and No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers open up the West Region Sweet 16 today, tipping off at 7:10 p.m. ET from SAP Center in San Jose on CBS. This first Sweet 16 showdown of March Madness showcases some of the most seasoned talent in the country, highlighted by Purdue’s floor general Braden Smith, the NCAA’s all-time assists leader.
My Texas vs. Purdue player props, part of our March Madness predictions, back Smith to connect from deep, with Overs on Oscar Cluff's rebounds and Dailyn Swain's assists rounding out a three-leg slate that pays +922 on a parlay.
🏀 Texas vs. Purdue player props today: March Madness Sweet 16 (March 26)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Player prop | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith, G, Purdue | Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+140 via bet365) | 1u -> 1.4u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oscar Cluff, C, Purdue | Over 8.5 rebounds (-112 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dailyn Swain, G, Texas | Over 4.5 assists (+125 via bet365) | 1u -> 1.25u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.54 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Best Texas vs. Purdue player prop tonight
See all of our March Madness prop bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Braden Smith Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+140)
From a value perspective, it doesn’t get better than backing Braden Smith to make multiple 3-pointers at +140 odds, when the high end of the market is at the standard -110 juice (52.38% implied odds) at DraftKings.
Purdue shot 58% from 3-point range over its first two NCAA Tournament wins. That’s the fourth-best shooting mark through two games in nearly 20 years of March Madness, and it was the Boilermakers’ best two-game stretch of 3-point shooting all season.
With Texas likely concerned about Smith operating in pick-and-roll, I expect it to sag off and let him fire away from deep.
💡 C.J. Cox injury status
Fellow Purdue guard C.J. Cox left the team's last win over Miami after scoring 11 points in 18 minutes with a knee injury. He is currently questionable to play tonight, but his injury is worth monitoring, as his absence would likely mean more 3-point volume for Braden Smith.
🔥 More Texas vs. Purdue prop bets tonight
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Oscar Cluff Over 8.5 rebounds (-112)
Purdue’s Oscar Cluff has a difficult matchup with Texas’ Matas Vokietaitis, who is playing as well as any big man in the country right now. While Vokietaitis had a career-high 16-rebound performance in the victory over BYU and has averaged five offensive rebounds through three NCAA Tournament wins, I expect Cluff to match his physicality.
Cluff is D-I’s fifth-best offensive rebounder with a 17.7% offensive rebounding rate. And while he ranks 118th among all players in defensive rebounding rate, he had the 11th-best rate in that metric in Big Ten play.
The Boilermakers are grabbing 74.5% of opponents’ misses in wins this season. That defensive rebounding rate plummets to 67.9% in losses. With Purdue being 7.5-point favorites, it bodes well for Cluff’s rebounding numbers.
Dailyn Swain Over 4.5 assists (+125)
Dailyn Swain leads all Longhorns with 3.5 assists per game. He has a great chance to go over that season average against a Purdue defense that allows assists on 57.9% of made field goals (314th-worst in the country).
Texas was zipping the ball around the perimeter against Gonzaga, racking up 20 assists on 31 made field goals. In that game, Swain’s six assists were double that of any other Longhorns player.
Texas will likely try to push the pace against Purdue, as it is 11-1 when scoring 87-plus points, and just 2-7 when scoring fewer than 74.
The Longhorns have cashed their team total Over in 17 of the last 25 games (+7.7 units, 27% ROI), making it worth taking a flier on the plus-money odds for Swain’s assist total.
🚀 Best Texas vs. Purdue parlay picks tonight
Purdue is D-I's most efficient offense in terms of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, while Texas allowed shots at the third-quickest rate per possession in Big 12 play. That bodes well for high shot volume between these two teams, and for all three Overs to cash a big +922 parlay.
💵 Best Texas vs. Purdue parlay today
- Braden Smith Over 1.5 3-pointers made
- Oscar Cluff Over 8.5 rebounds
- Dailyn Swain Over 4.5 assists
Best odds: +922 via bet365 (1u -> 9.22u)
🤑 Texas vs. Purdue betting splits
| Bet type | % of bets 🎟️ | % of handle 💰 |
|---|---|---|
| Texas ML (+320) | 65% | 26% |
| Purdue ML (-415) | 35% | 74% |
| Texas +8.5 | 40% | 37% |
| Purdue -8.5 | 60% | 63% |
| Over 147.5 | 68% | 47% |
| Under 147.5 | 32% | 53% |
The betting splits indicate that the sharp money is on the Purdue side, with Purdue on the moneyline and spread having over 50% of the handle. We are also seeing sharp money coming in on the Under here, which makes me inclined to take the Under in this spot. -LJ Blut
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-53 | +14.24 units ✅ | +13.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 40-34 | +14.43 units ✅ | +13.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 16-17 | +1.81 units ✅ | +5.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. Purdue today: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I already talked about how crazy the value was at bet365 for Smith's 3-point odds compared to the rest of the market. But it also offers the best price for the other two props.
Cluff's Over 8.5 rebounds is juiced as high as -146 at FanDuel (carrying a 59.35% implied probability), while Caesars and William Hill have the O/U set at 9.5. Meanwhile, we are getting +125 odds for the Over on Swain's 4.5 assists, but the same prop is -130 at DraftKings, returning 0.48 fewer units in max profit per one-unit wager.
🏀 March Madness Sweet 16 predictions & previews
| Game predictions | Player prop picks |
|---|---|
| Texas vs. Purdue prediction | Texas vs. Purdue player props |
| Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction | Iowa vs. Nebraska player props |
| Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction | Arkansas vs. Arizona player props |
| Illinois vs. Houston prediction | Illinois vs. Houston player props |
| St. John’s vs. Duke prediction | St. John’s vs. Duke player props (coming soon) |
| Michigan State vs. UConn prediction | Michigan State vs. UConn player props (coming soon) |
| Alabama vs. Michigan prediction | Alabama vs. Michigan player props (coming soon) |
| Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction | Tennessee vs. Iowa State player props (coming soon) |
More Sweet 16 expert picks
Related Articles
