🏀 Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 21)

No. 11 seed Texas won its second straight March Madness game as an underdog and looks to continue its run from the First Four to the Sweet 16 when it faces No. 3 seed Gonzaga on Saturday night.

This West Region tipoff is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Moda Center in Portland, Ore., with the Bulldogs the 5.5-point betting favorite. The game airs on truTV and TBS.

My Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction believes in Sean Miller's Longhorns, and that it has the offense to pull off another cover in an underdog role. Also, as part of our March Madness predictions, I am backing Texas' defensive trends to find an edge on a Bulldogs player prop.,

🏀 Texas vs. Gonzaga picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.62 units

🏆 Who will win Texas vs. Gonzaga?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 or better in 13 of its last 14 NCAA Tournament appearances. Therefore, I am not calling for an outright upset, but believe the Longhorns will cover the spread even if the Bulldogs make up for their Round of 32 loss from last season.

Score prediction: Gonzaga 74, Texas 72

💰 Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction & best bet

Texas +6.5 (-110)

Prior to its win over BYU, Texas ranked as the 64th-best team since Valentine’s Day.

But this is also not the same powerful Gonzaga team we’ve seen in the past, and there is something to be said for the momentum Texas has generated from its early NCAA Tournament success.

Gonzaga has a difficult prep for a much different opponent than Kennesaw State was, as the Owls confused the Bulldogs with a myriad of junk zone looks. But it is also concerning that the Owls attempted 26 free throws, while Texas averages the third-highest free throw rate in the country.

🔥 Best Texas vs. Gonzaga player prop bet

Davis Fogle Under 1.5 assists (-125)

Texas is not the most sound defensive team, ranking outside the top 100 in that poor stretch since Valentine’s Day.

But it is figuring things out, as it held its First Four opponent in NC State to 0.98 points per possession, just the second time all year it has held a team to fewer than 1.0 PPP.

One thing Texas has always been good at defensively is preventing ball movement and forcing isolation. Head coach Sean Miller even said in an in-game interview the team “can’t” stop BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, but it limited everyone else (Dybantsa finished with 35 points, the rest of the Cougars had 36). 

Because of its ability to stop ball movement, Texas ranks 23rd in assist rate allowed. So while Davis Fogle has multiple assists in four of the last five games, these are great odds for him to be stymied.

🚀 Texas vs. Gonzaga same-game parlay

This same-game parlay focuses more on Texas' recent sample size of success by backing it to cover with the Under cashing. But I am also looking at the last leg with a wide lens, analyzing the Longhorns' ability to prevent assists at a high rate.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. Gonzaga: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Though two of my three picks above are backed with four stars of confidence, all are one-unit plays.

I toyed with limiting my Under bet to a half-unit given Texas' defensive inconsistencies, but Gonzaga has been too good of an Under team this year to ignore (they've cashed the Under in 23 of 34 games).

I will also be sprinkling 0.25 units on Texas' +198 moneyline odds at FanDuel. Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 in 13 of its last 14 NCAA Tournaments, but head coach Mark Few is also just 19-27-1 ATS as a betting favorite, the third-worst among active coaches in that role in the NCAA Tournament since 1978 (min. 10 games). 

📊 Live Texas vs. Gonzaga odds: March Madness Second Round

Thus far the -5.5 has been a very sharp line with zero line movement to this point, which is also justified since the early wagers are just 51/49 in favor of Texas.

There is a great chance this line stays where it is, as there does not appear to be any one-sided sharp action on either side.

Comparatively, the O/U has seen much more fluctuation. DraftKings saw its opening number plummet from 149.5 to 146.5 initially with no buyback on the Over. Elsewhere, BetMGM saw its opening number initially bet up from 147.5 to 148.5 before a cascade of Under money lowered it as much as two full points.

📈 Texas vs. Gonzaga betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Gonzaga: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Saturday, March 21
• Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
• TV: truTV/TBS
• Streaming: Max