🏀 Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction, Picks & Parlay: March Madness Second Round Odds Tonight

No. 11 Texas keeps defying the odds, entering today's second-round clash with No. 3 Gonzaga off back-to-back wins as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 6.5-point favorites ahead of a 7:10 p.m. ET tip at Moda Center in Portland on TBS/truTV, with the spread holding firm since the open and 60% of bets backing the Longhorns.

My best Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction has faith in Sean Miller's squad to keep this one close again, fading a Gonzaga team that allowed 26 free throw attempts against Kennesaw State. My March Madness predictions also target a Davis Fogle assists prop, banking on Texas' elite ability to prevent ball movement.

🏀 Texas vs. Gonzaga picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

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💵 Latest Texas vs. Gonzaga odds & betting splits

Latest Texas vs. Gonzaga odds and betting splits via BetMGM.

Sixty percent of spread bets are on Texas, but the line hasn't budged from 6.5 as Gonzaga's side is holding firm. The total sits at 147.5 with 70% of bets on the Over, though the number has seen significant fluctuation across books. Gonzaga draws 72% of moneyline action at -250.

🏆 Who will win Texas vs. Gonzaga?

Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 or better in 13 of its last 14 NCAA Tournament appearances. Therefore, I am not calling for an outright upset, but believe the Longhorns will cover the spread even if the Bulldogs make up for their Round of 32 loss from last season.

Score prediction: Gonzaga 74, Texas 72

💰 Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction & best bet

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Texas +6.5 (-110)

Prior to its win over BYU, Texas ranked as the 64th-best team since Valentine’s Day.

But this is also not the same powerful Gonzaga team we’ve seen in the past, and there is something to be said for the momentum Texas has generated from its early NCAA Tournament success.

Gonzaga has a difficult prep for a much different opponent than Kennesaw State was, as the Owls confused the Bulldogs with a myriad of junk zone looks. But it is also concerning that the Owls attempted 26 free throws, while Texas averages the third-highest free throw rate in the country.

🔥 Best Texas vs. Gonzaga player prop bet

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Davis Fogle Under 1.5 assists (-125)

Texas is not the most sound defensive team, ranking outside the top 100 in that poor stretch since Valentine’s Day.

But it is figuring things out, as it held its First Four opponent in NC State to 0.98 points per possession, just the second time all year it has held a team to fewer than 1.0 PPP.

One thing Texas has always been good at defensively is preventing ball movement and forcing isolation. Head coach Sean Miller even said in an in-game interview the team “can’t” stop BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, but it limited everyone else (Dybantsa finished with 35 points, the rest of the Cougars had 36). 

Because of its ability to stop ball movement, Texas ranks 23rd in assist rate allowed. So while Davis Fogle has multiple assists in four of the last five games, these are great odds for him to be stymied.

🚀 Texas vs. Gonzaga same-game parlay

This same-game parlay focuses more on Texas' recent sample size of success by backing it to cover with the Under cashing. But I am also looking at the last leg with a wide lens, analyzing the Longhorns' ability to prevent assists at a high rate.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. Gonzaga: March Madness strategy

Though two of my three picks above are backed with four stars of confidence, all are one-unit plays.

I toyed with limiting my Under bet to a half-unit given Texas' defensive inconsistencies, but Gonzaga has been too good of an Under team this year to ignore (they've cashed the Under in 23 of 34 games).

I will also be sprinkling 0.25 units on Texas' +198 moneyline odds at FanDuel. Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 in 13 of its last 14 NCAA Tournaments, but head coach Mark Few is also just 19-27-1 ATS as a betting favorite, the third-worst among active coaches in that role in the NCAA Tournament since 1978 (min. 10 games). 

📊 Live Texas vs. Gonzaga odds: March Madness Second Round

The spread has been locked at 6.5 with virtually no movement, even with 60% of bets on Texas. That kind of stability suggests the books are comfortable with the number. The total has been more volatile: DraftKings saw its opener drop from 149.5 to 146.5 before bouncing back, while BetMGM sits at 147.5 after its own fluctuation. Under money has been aggressive, but 70% of bets are still on the Over.

📈 Texas vs. Gonzaga betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Gonzaga: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Saturday, March 21
• Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
• TV: truTV/TBS
• Streaming: HBO Max

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