Texas Tech vs. Purdue Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 21

The Baha Mar Championship tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN) from the Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, Bahamas, isn't short on star power, and our Texas Tech vs. Purdue prediction expects a high-scoring game as a result. 

No. 1 Purdue is just a 3.5-point betting favorite against No. 15 Texas Tech, after both teams looked susceptible in their respective wins against Memphis and Wake Forest yesterday.

✅ Texas Tech vs. Purdue prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Texas Tech vs. Purdue preview & score prediction

What better appetizer ahead of Feast Week next week than getting to watch two of the best teams in the country, being led by Wooden Award odds favorites, square off with a championship on the line?

While the Boilermakers are the No. 1 team in the country, and most advanced metrics project the March Madness odds contenders to come out victorious in the Bahamas, I'm more comfortable taking the Over than Purdue to cover the 3.5-point spread. Mainly because Matt Painter's team has defensive issues that Texas Tech is capable of exploiting with JT Toppin and Christian Anderson.

Barnburner in the Bahmas

Purdue has the best offense in the country. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and Smith leads the nation in OBPR, per EvanMiya. With Smith running this offense - and veterans like Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer, and Oscar Cluff surrounding him - Purdue is top 25 in the country in 3-pointers (11.0) and assists per game (20.0).

However, Painter's program lags on the other end, where it's just No. 49 in adjusted defensive efficiency. That should allow a team as loaded as Grant McCasland's to put up points. Both Toppin and Anderson rank top 20 in the country in OBPR and are combining to put up 43.8 PPG, 16 RPG, and 12 APG. 

With neither of these teams being a strong ATS bet early in the season (they're a combined 2-7-1 ATS), the Over is the play in the Bahamas with both programs averaging over 88 PPG. If the Over hits (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Score prediction: Purdue 88, Texas Tech 82

🆚 Texas Tech vs. Purdue matchup to watch

Braden Smith vs. Christian Anderson

This is one of the best guard matchups we're going to get all regular season, with both Smith and Anderson being among the top offensive threats in the country. While neither is renowned for their play on the defensive end, Anderson has been far more inconsistent. 

That should open the door for Smith to have a big outing, especially as a floor general, where he's at his best. The senior is No. 2 in the country in assists per game (9.0), and his 11-assist outing against Memphis yesterday was his fourth time in five games finishing with Over 8.5 apples.

Smith's assists line is set at 7.5 at our other best March Madness betting sites, with the Over juiced to -185, implying a 64.91% probability he'll hit at least eight assists. By playing this at FanDuel, if Smith puts up just one more assist, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit vs. a $5.41 profit at the -185 odds.

Best prop bet: Braden Smith Over 8.5 assists (-110 via FanDuel)

📊 Texas Tech vs. Purdue odds

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📺 How to watch Texas Tech vs. Purdue

• Date: Friday, Nov. 21
• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Baha Mar Convention Center (Nassau, Bahamas)
• TV: CBSSN