🏀 Texas Tech vs. Alabama Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 2 (March 22)
I'm expecting a lot of points when No. 5 seed Texas Tech and No. 4 seed Alabama - two of the highest-scoring teams in the country - meet on Sunday for a spot in the Sweet 16.
My top Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction anticipates a high-scoring March Madness game in which Alabama comes out on top. Tipoff from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., is set for 9:45 p.m. ET (TBS), with Alabama listed as a 1.5-point betting favorite. Our March Madness predictions also feature the Donovan Atwell player prop below.
🏀 Texas Tech vs. Alabama picks & odds: March Madness Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama -1.5 | +100 via FanDuel | 2u -> 2u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 164.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Donovan Atwell Over 16.5 points | -120 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.25u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.61 units
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🏆 Who will win Texas Tech vs. Alabama?
I'm taking Alabama to win by five points, because while both teams are missing key players, the loss of JT Toppin will be too much for Texas Tech to overcome against the highest scoring team in the nation.
Score prediction: Alabama 89, Texas Tech 84
💰 Texas Tech vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Alabama -1.5 (+100)
Alabama is averaging 91.7 points per game, and in their first game without Aden Holloway, the Crimson Tide scored 90 against Hofstra. Four Alabama players scored in double figures, including Lebaron Philon Jr., who scored 29.
Missing Toppin's 21.8 points per game will make it impossible for Texas Tech to keep up. Since the loss of Toppin, the Red Raiders are just 4-3 overall. Additionally, they've allowed at least 71 points in six of seven games, while failing to score more than 65 in two of their last four.
💸 March Madness survivor pool strategy
Our Rob Paul breaks down his March Madness survivor pool strategy as we advance deeper into the tournament.
🔥 Best Texas Tech vs. Alabama player prop bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Donovan Atwell Over 16.5 points (-115)
Atwell is a great 3-point shooter, averaging 45.9% from beyond the arc. He's made at least three in 15 consecutive games. Alabama ranks 198th in 3-point percentage allowed, giving up 8.2 3-pointers per game, which ranks 253rd in the country.
Atwell is averaging 13.5 points per game, but he's scored at least 15 in four of his last five. He's led Texas Tech in scoring in four of the Red Raiders' seven games without Toppin, and he ended the regular season scoring at least 18 in three consecutive games.
🏀 More March Madness picks for Sunday
Mike Spector's Second Round picks include Texas Tech ML (+108), St. John's -1.5 in the first half, and more.
🚀 Texas Tech vs. Alabama same-game parlay
With Toppin out, I truly believe that Alabama is the much better team in this matchup. The Crimson Tide will dictate the tempo of the game, leading to both teams scoring at least 80. Though Atwell will exploit Alabama's main defensive weakness, knocking down 3-pointers to keep Texas Tech in the game.
💵 Texas Tech vs. Alabama SGP picks
- Alabama -1
- Over 165
- Donovan Atwell Over 16.5 points
Best odds: +583 via bet365 (1u -> 5.83u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-34 | +34.28 units ✅ | 42.1% ✅ |
| Game picks | 20-15 | +16.16 units ✅ | +33.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 4-8 | -7.72 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-11 | +25.84 units ✅ | +215.3% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Texas Tech vs. Alabama: March Madness strategy
Holloway's absence is a big deal for Alabama, but Toppin's absence is too much for Texas Tech to overcome in this game. Therefore, I'm wagering two units on Alabama to cover, and I'll wager 1.5 units on the Over. I'm slightly less confident in the total simply because this number is so high, but I will still back it based on March Madness betting trends. Because of how good Atwell is from beyond the 3-point line, I'll risk 1.5 units on him to score at least 17, even if he won't be the team's leading scorer.
📊 Live Texas Tech vs. Alabama odds: March Madness Round 2
Texas Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but Alabama has taken over as the favorite at every major sportsbook. That said, the spread hasn't grown larger than 1.5 points, and with the price for -1.5 actually dropping from -110 to -105 at some of the best sports betting sites, it seems the spread may move back in favor of Texas Tech. As for the total, it opened at 164.5, and while it's stayed there at some sportsbooks, it has increased to 165.5 at others. I expect it to keep rising.
📈 Texas Tech vs. Alabama betting trends
| Texas Tech | Statistic | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 23-10 | Record | 24-9 |
| 17-16 | ATS record | 14-18 |
| 15-18 | O/U record | 17-14-1 |
| 19th | KenPom ranking | 18th |
| 125.6 (10th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 129.3 (3rd) |
| 99.9 (33rd) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 103.0 (65th) |
📺 How to watch Texas Tech vs. Alabama: March Madness Round 2
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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