🏀 Texas A&M vs. Houston Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 21)

No. 10 seed Texas A&M and No. 2 seed Houston scored some of the most impressive March Madness victories from Thursday's opening round, setting up an interesting matchup on Saturday for the right to go to the Sweet 16. The Cougars are an 11-point betting favorite, with tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City set for 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT).

My Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction loves how much the Aggies' "Bucky Ball" style can be a foil to Kelvin Sampson's Cougars defense. That is why I am including a Texas A&M cover to our March Madness predictions, sparked by positive regression from one of the best 3-point shooters in the country. Our Rob Paul breaks down both of these teams' stats in his March Madness betting guide.

🏀 Texas A&M vs. Houston picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.15 units

🏆 Who will win Texas A&M vs. Houston?

I do not expect Houston to squander an opportunity to play in the Regional Semifinals in its home city next weekend. But while I expect the Cougars to advance, Texas A&M is a live underdog in this matchup.

Score prediction: Houston 73, Texas A&M 68

💰 Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction & best bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Texas A&M +11 (-110)

This five-star play is backed by the confidence of how well this matchup mirrors a Saint Mary’s team that Texas A&M just easily handled.

Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Aggies had only played two games with under 65 possessions. But they certainly didn’t mind Thursday’s 63-50 slugfest, and they improved to 17-2 when forcing a turnover rate of at least 16%.

Houston ranks 351st in adjusted tempo (Saint Mary’s was 310th). The only other sub-300 tempo NCAA Tournament team Texas A&M played was Tennessee, who it lost to in double overtime while still forcing a 22% turnover rate.

🔥 Best Texas A&M vs. Houston player prop bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Rylan Griffen Over 1.5 3-pointers made (-115)

Texas A&M deployed its usual offensive strategy of a 3-point barrage in its opening round win over Saint Mary’s, with 23 of its 52 field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. Part of that was by design and not wanting to consistently challenge the Gaels’ 7-footers, but Houston will likely oblige in letting the Aggies bomb away from deep once again.

Houston allowed the second-highest 3-point rate in Big 12 play, while those opponents got more than one-third of their points from the perimeter (fifth-most). 

Rylan Griffen is just 1-for-8 from 3-point range over the last two games. But I am banking on positive regression for a sharpshooter that shoots 3-pointers at a near 41% clip, and was the seventh-best 3-point shooter in SEC play.  

🚀 Texas A&M vs. Houston same-game parlay

We lucked out having bet365 as one of our best sports betting sites for this same-game parlay. It's one of the best March Madness betting sites because it has player props available at the time of this writing and is also aligned with other books price-wise as a Texas A&M and Under backer.

Adding Griffen to hit at least two 3-pointers helps our case of the Aggies covering, but we still need them to play solid defense to cash the leg of the parlay pertaining to the full-game total.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Texas A&M vs. Houston: March Madness strategy

Texas A&M +11 is arguably my top play of Saturday's slate, which is why I am getting more aggressive with it as a two-unit play. I would have made the Aggies moneyline (+450 via FanDuel is the best number) a small 0.25-unit play, until learning that Kelvin Sampson is 14-0 SU as a favorite of eight or more points in the NCAA Tournament. Still, one double-digit seed has reached every Sweet 16 since 2008, so you're saying there's a chance!

Rob Paul's March Madness betting trends feature more records for coaches.

📊 Live Texas A&M vs. Houston odds: March Madness Second Round

Adding to my confidence on Texas A&M is the fact that I am getting a slightly better number than what it opened at, just on pure patience. The opening number of +10.5 didn't last long on the best sports betting apps, as the Aggies were as low as +9.5 at several sportsbooks. There was clearly some respected buyback on the favorites at that number, and I wouldn't put anyone off waiting for any +11.5s or +12s to pop up, since Houston is always a popular public side.

📈 Texas A&M vs. Houston betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas A&M vs. Houston: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Saturday, March 21
• Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: HBO Max