🏀 Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction & Parlay: Tonight's Round 2 March Madness Picks, Odds, & Best Bets

No. 6 Tennessee takes on No. 3 Virginia in today’s East Region Round of 32 matchup, and in my Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction, I'm backing the underdog to move on to the Sweet 16.

Although the Volunteers are the lower seed, they enter as a 1.5-point favorite for the game, which tips off at 6:10 p.m. ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on TNT. While I anticipate a strong 3-point performance from Tennessee’s Nate Ament, I’m backing the Cavaliers on the moneyline as part of the March Madness predictions. 

🏀 Tennessee vs. Virginia picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.26 units

📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Virginia: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Sunday, March 22
• Tipoff: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: HBO Max
• Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (-110)
• Total: 137.5

🏆 Who will win Tennessee vs. Virginia?

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Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has some horrible ATS trends, which have me buying a Virginia win in a mild upset.

Barnes is just 8-19 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2010, and entered the tournament as the least profitable coach based on $100 wagers in that span. And as an underdog or non-double-digit favorite, Barnes is 5-16 ATS in the “Big Dance” since 2009-10.

Score prediction: Virginia 70, Tennessee 69 

💰 Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction & best bet

Virginia ML (+100)

Tennessee may be slightly overrated in this game after dominating one-loss Miami 78-56, posting 1.19 points per possession. Their defensive strength isn't surprising, though, as they’ve held teams outside the top 40 to just 0.91 points per possession.

Virginia poses other issues, but the most glaring is how well it is set up to defend Tennessee inside. The Volunteers rank in the 89th-percentile in post-ups and the 86th percentile in efficiency, but the Cavaliers’ elite rim protection ranks fifth in 2-point percentage allowed.

🔥 Best Tennessee vs. Virginia player prop bet

Nate Ament Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+135)

If Virginia’s 2-point percentage defense is going to be stingy again, Tennessee will likely have to fire away from 3-point range early and often.

The Cavaliers’ opening round opponent, Wright State, was not known as a volume shooting type of team. But instead of the Raiders challenging Thijs De Ridder and Ugonna Onyenso at the rim, a team that averaged nearly seven 3-pointers per game in the regular season had already exceeded that by halftime (eight), en route to 13 made threes for the game.

We are getting great value on this play, as Tennessee ranked in the bottom 35 in the country in 3-point attempt rate, and the bottom-40 in percentage of its points coming from beyond the arc.

This is a three-star play, as though it didn’t shoot them often, Tennessee ranked in the 98th percentile in generating open catch-and-shoot threes this year.

🚀 Tennessee vs. Virginia same-game parlay

Backing Nate Ament to hit multiple 3-pointers aligns well with the Over hitting. Although it might seem at odds with the first part of the parlay, which requires Virginia to win outright, the plan is that the Cavaliers’ stout interior defense will push Ament to the perimeter, limiting his opportunities in the paint where he's usually most dangerous.

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💡 How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Virginia: March Madness strategy

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Since Virginia is only catching +1.5 points on the spread, that didn't present enough value for me to wager on it on its own. Instead, I am more intrigued by the plus-money odds for the Cavaliers moneyline, as the only way I'd lose that wager but win a point spread play is if Virginia loses by exactly one point.

Ament is 0-for-6 from 3-point range over the last two games, so I needed to get plus-money odds to back his player prop.

I will look more into other Volunteers' 3-point props when they become available, but Ament can easily cash this wager, given he has multiple 3-point makes in two of the three games prior to this recent poor stretch.

📊 Live Tennessee vs. Virginia odds: March Madness Second Round

This was a sharp opening number, as none of the best sports betting sites has budged off of Tennessee -1.5 since this line opened early Friday afternoon.

The only somewhat significant change is that FanDuel saw its juice change from +102 to lay the -1.5 to -118. That suggests this line is more likely to go to -2 than -1, in which case I'd also be backing Virginia's point spread at that better number in addition to my moneyline play.

Sportsbooks are also in unison with an O/U of 137.5, also a number that hasn't budged, even though 61% of the early wagers support the Under.

📈 Tennessee vs. Virginia betting trends

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See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.