🏀 Tennessee vs. Iowa State Prediction Tonight: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds & Picks
Tennessee excels at chasing teams off the 3-point line, but Iowa State has the perimeter firepower to push back tonight - led by Milan Momcilovic, whoβs knocking down 49.3% of his shots from deep. The No. 2 Cyclones enter tonightβs Sweet 16 clash as a 3.5-point betting favorite over No. 6 Tennessee, with tipoff from United Center in Chicago set for 10:10 p.m. ET (TBS).
My Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction tonight anticipates a slow, physical battle that keeps the total in check. Along with the Under, Iβm backing Tennessee to cover the number and Momcilovic to hit from beyond the arc - a combination that builds a +612 same-game parlay as part of our March Madness predictions.
π Tennessee vs. Iowa State picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee +4.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.91u | ββ |
| Under 138.5 | -110 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.82u | ββββ |
| Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers | -105 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.42u | βββ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.15 units
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π Who will win Tennessee vs. Iowa State?
I'm taking Iowa State to win a low-scoring game by three points.
While Tennessee's defense is great at defending the 3-point line, Iowa State has some of the best shooters in the country, who will be able to make big shots late in a tight game.
While I think Tennessee will cover this spread, I also make the case for why they could pull off the victory in my March Madness upset picks.
Score prediction: Iowa State 65, Tennessee 62
💡 Iowa State offers a sweet survivor pick
Our Rob Paul believes Iowa State makes the best pick for tonight's March Madness survivor picks.
π° Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction & best bet
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Under 138.5 (-110)
Tennessee ranks 27th in opponent field goal percentage (40.7%) and 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage (30.5%). The latter category is particularly important in this matchup, as Iowa State shoots 38.7% from deep, which is 13th-best in the country. Meanwhile, Iowa State is holding opponents to 42.7% from the floor, and the Cyclones will keep Tennessee's offense out of rhythm with turnovers, as Iowa State averages 9.1 steals per game.
And even if both teams shoot well, possessions will be at a premium, as Iowa State ranks 204th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, while Tennessee ranks 306th.
💸 March Madness Final Four odds
Iowa State has the seventh-shortest odds to make the Final Four, per our Final Four odds leaderboard.
π₯ Best Tennessee vs. Iowa State player prop bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-105)
Momcilovic makes his living beyond the 3-point line, averaging 3.7 makes and 7.6 attempts per game. For the season, he's shooting 49.3% from deep, which is why I expect him to have success even in this tough matchup.
Momcilovic made four 3-pointers in Sunday's win over Kentucky, and he's made at least three 3-pointers in three consecutive games. In his final game before the NCAA Tournament, he went 8-of-14 from deep against Arizona, the country's 42nd-best 3-point defense.
Momcilovic has made at least four 3-pointers in 17 of his 36 games this season. With Iowa State's second-leading scorer, Joshua Jefferson, likely to play limited minutes, if he plays at all, I expect more attempts from Momcilovic. Considering 67% of Momcilovic's field goal attempts are from 3-point range, those added attempts will be from outside the arc rather than inside of it.
🏀 Who will win March Madness 2026?
Our Rob Paul backs a team at +450 to win outright in his March Madness odds 2026.
π Tennessee vs. Iowa State same-game parlay
I'm expecting a low-scoring game, which is why I anticipate Tennessee covering this spread. And even though Iowa State will likely shoot worse than usual, Momcilovic should still get plenty of opportunities, especially if Jefferson doesn't play. Him hitting his Over on 3-pointers is a great contradiction to the Under and the spread, which helps elevate these parlay odds.
💵 Tennessee vs. Iowa State SGP picks
- Tennessee +4.5
- Under 138.5
- Milan Momcilovic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers
Best odds: +612 via bet365 (1u -> 6.12u)
βοΈ Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds movement & betting splits
Latest Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds movement and betting splits via BetMGM.
| Market | Tennessee | Iowa State | Betting splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| βοΈ Spread | +3.5 (-105) | -3.5 (-115) | 26% Tennessee / 74% Iowa State |
| βοΈ Total (O/U) | O 139.5 (-110) | U 139.5 (-110) | 78% Over / 22% Under |
| π΅ Moneyline | +154 | -190 | 20% Tennessee / 80% Iowa State |
Iowa State is drawing heavy action across the board with 74% of spread tickets and 80% of moneyline tickets. Despite that, the spread has actually dropped from -4.5 at open to -3.5, a full point of reverse line movement in Tennessee's favor. Joshua Jefferson's uncertain status could be influencing the move, but the line is trending toward the Volunteers regardless.
The total has climbed from 137.5 at open to 139.5, with 78% of bets on the Over. That's the second-most lopsided total split on tonight's slate, and the market is responding by pushing the number higher.
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-44 | +29.27 units β | +28.4% β |
| Game picks | 24-19 | +16.66 units β | +26.7% β |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units β | -37.7% β |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units β | +136.5% β |
π€ Sweet 16 betting insights tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
Most-bet spreads and moneylines
| Spreads by bet % ποΈ | Spreads by handle % π° | MLs by spread % ποΈ | MLs by handle % π° |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State -3.5 | Iowa State -3.5 | St. John's +230 | Michigan State +110 |
| Alabama +9.5 | Michigan -9.5 | Michigan State +110 | Michigan -450 |
| St. John's +6.5 | St. John's +6.5 | Alabama +340 | St. John's +230 |
| Michigan State +1.5 | Connecticut -1.5 | Tennessee +145 | Iowa State -180 |
π‘ How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Iowa State: March Madness strategy
If I knew Jefferson was out, then I'd have much more faith in Tennessee based on the latest March Madness betting trends. But with Jefferson's status up in the air, I'm only willing to risk one unit on the Volunteers at this time. I love the Under in this game, because while both teams are great offensively, the defenses will dictate the tempo of this game. Therefore, that's a two-unit play. And though Tennessee plays great 3-point defense, very few teams have been able to shut down Momcilovic, so I'll risk 1.5 units on him hitting his Over.
π Live Tennessee vs. Iowa State odds: March Madness Sweet 16
Iowa State opened at -4.5 but has dropped to -3.5 across our best sports betting sites, with Joshua Jefferson's status still uncertain. If Jefferson is ruled out, I'd expect even more movement toward Tennessee, potentially reaching +5 or higher.
The total has moved in the opposite direction, rising from 137.5 at open to 139.5. I'd recommend getting on the Under sooner rather than later if the number continues to climb toward tipoff.
π Tennessee vs. Iowa State betting trends
| Tennessee | Statistic | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 24-11 | Record | 29-7 |
| 16-18-1 | ATS record | 22-13-1 |
| 17-18 | O/U record | 16-20 |
| 14th | KenPom ranking | 7th |
| 121.6 (31st) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 124.7 (17th) |
| 94.7 (14th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.3 (5th) |
πΊ How to watch Tennessee vs. Iowa State: March Madness Sweet 16
- Date: Friday, March 27
- Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Location: United Center (Chicago)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
- Spread: Iowa State -3.5 (-115)
- Total: 139.5
π March Madness Sweet 16 predictions & player props
March Madness expert picks tonight
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