🏀 TCU vs. Duke Prediction, Picks & Parlay: March Madness Second Round Odds Today

No. 1 Duke survived a scare from Siena in the first round and now faces No. 9 TCU this afternoon at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. The Blue Devils are 12.5-point favorites ahead of a 5:15 p.m. ET tip on CBS, with the spread ticking up from its 10.5 opener despite Thursday's shaky performance.

My best TCU vs. Duke prediction sees this as a prime bounce-back spot for the Blue Devils, who rank in the 97th percentile in half-court offense. My March Madness predictions target first-half plays and a David Punch prop, expecting Duke's elite defense to clamp down on TCU's limited offense.

🏀 TCU vs. Duke picks & odds: March Madness Round 2

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💵 Latest TCU vs. Duke odds & betting splits

Latest TCU vs. Duke odds and betting splits via BetMGM.

TCU is drawing 55% of spread bets, but the line has still moved from 10.5 to 12.5 in Duke's favor - the opposite direction you'd expect given that split, which could signal sharp play on the Blue Devils. The Over is attracting 77% of action with the total back at 140.5 after dipping to 139.5. Duke commands 87% of moneyline bets at -900.

🏆 Who will win TCU vs. Duke?

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I predict Duke to take care of business in its Round of 32 matchup against TCU. I'm projecting the Blue Devils to win by 12, as their biggest weakness (defensive 3-point rate) isn't even a strength of the Horned Frogs. TCU is 211th in 3-point shooting.

Score prediction: Duke 76, TCU 64

💰 TCU vs. Duke prediction & best bet

Duke Over 35.5 first-half points (-120)

Duke is the 16th No. 1 seed to defeat a No. 16 seed by single digits. History isn't on the Blue Devils' side when it comes to their national championship hopes, as Will Warren of Basket Under Review pointed out in this post. None of the previous 15 teams won the title.

However, plenty of those teams responded in the next game. In fact, the most-recent example was Arizona in 2014. The Wildcats jumped out to a 47-34 lead in the first half before pulling away for 23-point win.

That's what I'm expecting with the Blue Devils on Saturday, particularly in the first half. Duke's half-court offense ranks in the 97th percentile, per BBall Index. TCU's half-court defense ranks in the 68th percentile.

This is a talent mismatch, which is why FanDuel has set Duke's first-half total at 36.5.

🔥 Best TCU vs. Duke player prop bet

David Punch Under 15.5 points (-120)

Duke might be getting its rim protector back on Saturday, with Patrick Ngongba II nearing a return. That would be huge, considering he has a 6.2% block rate.

That's also bad news for TCU big man David Punch, who is giving up a lot of size at 6-foot-7. Punch has played well of late, scoring 16-plus points in three straight games. But facing the Blue Devils' No. 1 defense is an entirely different challenge, especially if their rim protector is back.

This line is as low as 14.5 at bet365, highlighting the deal at FanDuel.

🚀 TCU vs. Duke same-game parlay

FanDuel is the place to play this TCU vs. Duke same-game parlay, as it offers the best odds on Punch's scoring prop. I had to sacrifice some value on the Blue Devils' first-half team total, but the odds are still a solid +273. Let's get a fast start for the Blue Devils.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting TCU vs. Duke: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

If you are only betting college basketball based on what you saw Thursday, TCU +11.5 would seem like a no-brainer. But contrary to popular belief, the college basketball season has been going on longer than that.

To me, this seems like a prime bounce-back spot for the Blue Devils. They have been the best team in basketball, they are motivated, and they might be getting reinforcements.

I'm all about the Blue Devils on Saturday.

📊 Live TCU vs. Duke odds: March Madness Round 2

Duke's spread has climbed from 10.5 at the open to 12.5 at BetMGM, even with 55% of spread bets backing TCU. That reverse movement suggests the money on Duke's side is outweighing the ticket count. The total briefly dipped to 139.5 before settling back at 140.5, with 77% of bets on the Over.

📈 TCU vs. Duke betting trends

📺 How to watch TCU vs. Duke: March Madness Round 2

• Date: Saturday, March 21
• Tipoff: 5:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: CBS App

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