South Dakota vs. Missouri Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 20

My South Dakota vs. Missouri prediction anticipates the Tigers struggling to clear this massive spread, largely due to Dennis Gates playing less-potent lineup combinations after a game is already in hand.

The Tigers expect to welcome a former top recruit back into the lineup on a limited basis in this matchup, according to the Missouri head coach.

The action for South Dakota vs. Missouri tips off from Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Mo., Thursday at 8 p.m. ET (SECN+). Missouri is a 25.5-point betting favorite.

✅ South Dakota vs. Missouri prediction & expert picks

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🏀 South Dakota vs. Missouri preview & score prediction

While Missouri is certainly the more talented team in this matchup, projecting the Tigers to cover a 25.5-point margin against a mid-major with consistently solid results so far this season is tough. That's especially true after the ugly way Missouri closed out its last game against Prairie View A&M.

Tigers struggling to close blowouts due to limited depth 

Missouri allowed one of the worst teams in the country to play the final six-plus minutes of the game with a 23-7 scoring advantage, taking the Tigers way out of range to cover the spread in a 91-73 victory. With Missouri's depth limited due to injuries, the players that Gates typically uses to close out these blowouts aren't necessarily equipped to hold serve.

Though Annor Boateng is expected to return for minimal minutes on Thursday, his impact against the spread will likely be limited while facing a South Dakota squad (KenPom: 275) that's picked up two D1 wins and played Creighton (KenPom: 48) within 16 points already this season.

Missouri (KenPom: 33) has cleared a margin of this size just once out of four mid-major matchups, with that triumph coming against VMI (KenPom: 296).

FanDuel offers South Dakota +25.5 with solid -108 odds, equating to an implied probability of 51.92%. A winning $10 wager would profit $9.26. 

Score prediction: Missouri 98, South Dakota 76

🆚 South Dakota vs. Missouri matchup to watch

Missouri's defense vs. South Dakota's Tempo

Though Missouri’s adjusted tempo ranks only 132nd, the Tigers certainly don’t mind facing an opponent that speeds up the game. Missouri’s athletes prefer to score quickly in Gates' system, with transition basketball being a strong suit of their offensive attack.

But that creates less of an emphasis on defense and rebounding, which leads to outcomes like SEMO (268th in adjusted offensive efficiency) putting up 84 points on the Tigers earlier this season.

South Dakota ranks 20th in adjusted tempo and 217th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so there should be plenty of up-and-down action in this game. The Coyotes are averaging 89.6 PPG while scoring at least 76 points in every game. That includes a matchup against Creighton, and that school's adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 82nd. Missouri sits 86th.

Best prop bet: South Dakota team total points Over 73.5 (-120 via DraftKings)

💰 Missouri sports betting

📊 South Dakota vs. Missouri odds

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📺 How to watch South Dakota vs. Missouri

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Mizzou Arena (Columbia, Mo.)
• TV: SECN+