South Dakota State vs. Oregon Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 12
My South Dakota State vs. Oregon prediction hinges on a strong statement from the Ducks (2-0) when they host the Jackrabbits (2-1) as a 16.5-point betting favorite from Matthew Knight Arena on Peacock (9:30 p.m. ET).
Oregon has survived a pair of close scares against Hawaii and Rice, winning both games by a combined five points, but I expect Dana Altman's group to step up tonight against an overmatched nonconference foe - especially on the defensive end.
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🏀 South Dakota State vs. Oregon preview & score prediction
It’d be easy to get scared off by Oregon’s play to start the season. The Ducks were laying -12 against Hawaii in their one-point win and -15.5 against Rice in a four-point victory. But Oregon is capable of playing better.
Can Oregon shoot better?
The key factor in the Ducks' improved play is better shooting. They are currently 340th in effective field goal percentage (38.6%), 342nd in 3-point shooting percentage (20.5%), and 291st in 2-point shooting percentage (43.9%).
Oregon made 21 shots against Hawaii and 17 against Rice.
Well, consider me skeptical that this is one of the worst offensive teams in the sport. Altman’s Ducks ranked 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency last year. They have been 52nd or better in that metric for six straight seasons.
South Dakota State, which is coming off a seven-point loss to Northern Iowa, is a soft matchup for a motivated Oregon team. I expect the Ducks to flex their muscles on Wednesday, winning $9.09 on a $10 spread bet.
Score prediction: Oregon 84, South Dakota State 61
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🆚 South Dakota State vs. Oregon matchup to watch
Ducks defense vs. Jackrabbits shooters
South Dakota State hasn’t fared much better on the offensive end to start the season. The Jackrabbits rank 220th in effective field goal rate, 223rd in 3-point shooting, and 198th in 2-point percentage.
That said, I don’t see SDSU achieving better results against Oregon’s elite defense. The Ducks rank 16th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held both their opponents to 63 points or fewer.
I like that trend to continue, which is why I’m on the Under for South Dakota State’s team total at 63.5.
Best prop bet: South Dakota State Under 63.5 (-115 via Caesars)
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📺 How to watch South Dakota State vs. Oregon
- Date: Wednesday, Nov. 12
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Matthew Knight Arena (Eugene, Ore.)
- TV: Peacock
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