🏀 Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction: College Basketball Odds & Picks (March 10)

Our Siena vs. Merrimack prediction sees a rock fight on tap for the MAAC Championship Game. The action tips off from Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Merrimack is a 3.5-point betting favorite.

We're leaning into a low-scoring outcome and pouring some cold water on the recent scoring eruption by Siena guard Justice Shoats, looking to take advantage of the resulting inflated betting line.

🏀 Siena vs. Merrimack picks & odds: March 10

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.2 units | Max profit: 3 units

💰 Siena vs. Merrimack prediction & best bet

Under 124.5 (-105)

We're betting on a sluggish championship game dominated by defense and methodical half-court basketball. Siena and Merrimack run two of the slowest paces in the nation, with both teams sitting outside the top 320 teams in adjusted tempo.

The initial matchup totaled just 122 points between a pair of opponents that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom). While the rematch reached 151 points, 19 of those points came in overtime.

The Over is 12-21 in games involving Merrimack, while Siena has seen the Over hit in just 33.3% of games (11-22).

Score prediction: Merrimack 61 - Siena 57

🔥 Best Siena vs. Merrimack player prop bet

Justice Shoats Under 14.5 points (-105)

After scoring 26 points against Fairfield in the tournament semifinal game, Siena senior guard Justice Shoats told reporters, "I'll take our backcourt against anyone." But we're fading Shoats off of that outlier performance considering the expected low-scoring game environment and his quiet efforts against Merrimack in past games.

Prior to Sunday, Shoats went Over 14.5 points just once in his last eight games. On Feb. 20, he scored just four points against Merrimack in a season-low 11 minutes, fouling out midway through the second half.

In his other matchup with Merrimack, Shoats played 37 minutes and scored just 10 points, indicating this could be a tough matchup for him. We're getting Shoats' point total at an inflated line from FanDuel based on the recency of his semifinal outburst, but we like this prop Under to a line of 13.5 points.

Our Mike Spector has a best bet in this game in his college basketball predictions today.

🚀 Siena vs. Merrimack same-game parlay

Merrimack has covered this line against Siena in their two previous meetings, while the slow tempos for both teams could produce a low-scoring affair. In that event, Justice Shoats is seeing an inflated point total due to the recency of his 26-point explosion in the semifinal, so we're targeting his Under correlating to our other picks for this SGP.

💡 How I'm betting Siena vs. Merrimack

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

I'm keeping my wagers on this matchup at one unit per bet as small conference tournaments can provide volatility.

While we like our read on the game total Under as a four-star recommendation and Justice Shoats' point total Under 14.5 correlated to that bet, we don't want to put an irresponsible number of eggs into any one basket during the high-volume betting month of March.

📊 Live Siena vs. Merrimack odds

This 3.5-line is tight due to the competitive nature of the matchups between Siena and Merrimack, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay put ahead of Tuesday night's game.

The total has dropped from 127.5 to 124.5 across our top sportsbooks and is unlikely to move back due to the team trends relating to offensive pace and efficiency.

📈 Siena vs. Merrimack betting trends

📺 How to watch Siena vs. Merrimack

• Date: Tuesday, March 10
• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall (Atlantic City, N.J.)
• TV: ESPN2
• Streaming: ESPN+