🏀 SF Austin vs. Missouri State Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness First Four
Two teams dealing with NCAA Tournament slumps will meet in the First Four, as No. 16 SF Austin (25-9) looks to pick up its first tournament win since 2000, and No. 16 Missouri State (22-12) looks for its second First Four win in program history.
My best SF Austin vs. Missouri State prediction for Wednesday's 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2/ESPN+) women's March Madness game at Moody Center in Austin, Texas, focuses on two stingy defenses keeping this a low-scoring game.
For the latest on the tournament, check out our women's March Madness odds.
π SF Austin vs. Missouri State picks & odds: Women's March Madness First Four
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF Austin +2.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ββ |
| Under 138.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| SF Austin Under 68.5 | -125 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.2u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.02 units
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π Who will win SF Austin vs. Missouri State?
I'm taking SF Austin to win this game by one point, because though Missouri State will be able to slow down the Ladyjacks' offense, SF Austin has won four of its last five games, despite scoring 71 or fewer in each.
Score prediction: SF Austin 64, Missouri State 63
π° SF Austin vs. Missouri State prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Under 138.5 (-110)
SF Austin is shooting 44.1% from the floor this season and averaging 75.3 points per game. But Missouri State held opponents to just 37.7% from the field and 61.0 points per game this season. The Lady Bears have held three of their last six opponents to just 38 points, with only one of their last 10 opponents topping 70.
Meanwhile, SF Austin has held opponents to just 36.8% from the field and 27.6% from 3-point range. That's a huge problem for a Missouri State team shooting just 29.8% from deep this year.
π₯ Best SF Austin vs. Missouri State team prop bet
Our free, printable womenβs March Madness bracket is now live.
SF Austin Under 68.5 (-125)
What makes this a particularly tough matchup for SF Austin is Missouri State's 3-point defense. SF Austin relies heavily on threes, averaging 8.3 makes per game, which is the 36th-most in the nation. But Missouri State is holding opponents to just 29% from deep this season. Only one of SF Austin's Southland foes, Lamar, had a better 3-point defense, and the Ladyjacks never scored more than 64 in any of their three games against them.
SF Austin is averaging over 75 points per game, but the Ladyjacks have scored 71 or fewer in five consecutive contests. In seven nonconference games against Division I opponents, SF Austin was held to 74 or fewer points five times, scoring 67 or fewer points three times.
π SF Austin vs. Missouri State same-game parlay
A defensive game definitely favors Missouri State, but SF Austin has proven all season that it can find ways to pull out wins in low-scoring contests. Since this feels like a coin flip, I'll take points with the team that clearly has the better offense. FanDuel is currently offering slightly better odds than bet365 or DraftKings for this parlay.
💵 SF Austin vs. Missouri State SGP picks
- SF Austin +2.5
- Under 138.5
Best odds: +264 via FanDuel (0.5u -> 1.32u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units β | +3.6% β |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units β | -9.6% β |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units β | -13.3% β |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units β | +75.7% β |
π‘ How I'm betting SF Austin vs. Missouri State: Women's March Madness
Missouri State's defense has been incredible down the stretch, holding nine of 10 opponents to fewer than 70 points. SF Austin has a very good offense, but a lot of that has to do with the caliber of defenses the Ladyjacks faced this year. Therefore, I'll risk 1.5 units on SF Austin to go below their team total, and risk one unit on the game to go Under as well. As for the spread, I lean toward SF Austin simply because this will be a low-scoring game, and I expect them to be the team to make a shot late.
π Live SF Austin vs. Missouri State odds: Women's March Madness First Four
There has been no movement for this game yet, and I honestly don't expect there to be. This is a First Four game, but these are such small brands that I don't expect a lot of public betting attention. If anything, the total will decrease as the week progresses, but I doubt it drops by more than a point or two.
πΊ How to watch SF Austin vs. Missouri State: Women's March Madness First Four
- Date: Wednesday, March 18
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Moody Center (Austin, Texas)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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