🏀 Second Round Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Predictions for March 22
All teams in action on Sunday played on Friday of March Madness, a day when favorites went a perfect 16-0 SU (and 12-4 ATS). That was only the second time ever that favorites went undefeated in the Round of 64, and the first time since 1992. Bettors bold enough to place a 16-team moneyline parlay on all favorites would have cashed at around 33-to-1 odds. Will the market correct itself, and will we see more upsets on Sunday, or are the favorites ready to dominate once again?
My Second Round picks offer a variety of plays, from a point spread and an underdog moneyline to a first-half spread on a team that has gotten off to blistering starts of late.
My March Madness predictions for Friday's First Round slate went 3-0 and cashed a four-leg parlay at +915 odds, and I aim to continue that momentum on Sunday.
🏀 College basketball picks & best bets for Sunday: March Madness Second Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Pick | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami vs. Purdue | Purdue -7.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| St. John's vs. Kansas | St. John's -1.5 first half spread (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas Tech vs. Alabama | Texas Tech ML (+108 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 1.08u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.9 units
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💰 Best Second Round bet for March 22
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Purdue -7.5 (-110)
Purdue was one of five of KenPom’s top eight conference tournament winners that placed in this loaded West Region. The good news is that Miami is not one of them, and the Boilermakers should play much more relaxed now that Braden Smith has officially set the NCAA all-time assist record.
Miami plays zone defense 18% of the time, but Purdue is one of the best zone offenses in the country. And the Boilermakers are built to negate the Hurricanes’ biggest offensive advantage, as they rank 23rd in defensive rebounding rate while Miami is a top-16 offensive rebounding team.
💸 March Madness survivor pool strategy
Our Rob Paul breaks down his March Madness survivor pool strategy as we advance deeper into the tournament.
🔥 More Second Round picks for March 22
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
St. John's -1.5 first half spread (-110)
St. John’s has raced out to an 8-0 lead or better in four consecutive games after never trailing in the entire Big East Tournament, and scoring the first 13 points against Northern Iowa on Friday.
It is a scary thought for Kansas that the Red Storm, typically hailed as a poor shooting team, just made double-digit 3-pointers for the first time since Jan. 10.
The Jayhawks as underdogs may be in trouble if they cannot get a solid game from Flory Bidunga. In wins, Bidunga is averaging 15.1 points on better than 70% shooting. In losses, his points per game total and shooting percentage plummet to 9.9 and 50.6%, respectively.
St. John’s is 18-10-1 ATS as a favorite this year, but I’m limiting this play to just the first half given its scalding hot starts of late.
Texas Tech ML (+108)
The Red Raiders proved they can be just fine (for now at least) without injured star JT Toppin, as they shot a blistering 75% in the second half on Friday to beat the Zips by 20 in a laugher. The more impressive part was their defense that held Akron to 17 points below its season scoring average.
While Alabama usually has a distinct advantage over its opponents in 3-point volume, Texas Tech is a bad matchup for the Crimson Tide as one of the few teams left in this tournament that can match them shot-for-shot.
Alabama leads D-I in 3-point attempt rate and 3-pointers made per game, but Texas Tech is third and fifth, respectively, in those categories. And those numbers have skyrocketed for the Red Raiders since JT Toppin’s injury, shooting threes at a 51% rate or higher in four of the last five games.
🚀 Best Second Round parlay picks for March 22
FanDuel is among the best sports betting sites for this three-leg parlay, as it is offering plus-money odds for Texas Tech's moneyline. That is a big difference from the next-closest sportsbook (Caesars), who is offering -105 odds, which translates to a 51.22% implied probability. That value makes it worth paying up in juice (-120 compared to -110) for the Red Storm's first half spread.
💵 Best Second Round parlay for March 22
- Purdue -7.5 (-110)
- St. John's -1.5 first half spread (-120)
- Texas Tech ML (+108)
Best odds: +628 via FanDuel (1u -> 6.28u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 42-42 | +12.71 units ✅ | +15.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 28-27 | +10.54 units ✅ | +188% ✅ |
| Player props | 14-13 | +4.17 units ✅ | +15.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting the Second Round: March Madness strategy
All three of my wagers are one-unit plays, though I may get more aggressive with my last two plays if I hit on the five-star play with Purdue in the early 12:10 p.m. ET tip.
There are several trends that support these wagers, starting with the fact that Purdue head coach Matt Painter is now 17-8 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. In addition, St. John's has covered the spread in 71.4% of its neutral site games, while Texas Tech won a respectable 50% of its games against ranked opponents.
Our Rob Paul breaks down March Madness betting trends, including coaches’ ATS records and more.
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