🏀 San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction: Mountain West Odds & Picks (March 14)
My best San Diego State vs. Utah State prediction for tonight's Mountain West Championship final at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas focuses on San Diego State's defense. Utah State is a 1.5-point betting favorite ahead of tipoff at 6 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.
With each of these teams playing their third game in as many days, I expect the defense of San Diego State to have the advantage over the high-scoring offense of Utah State, as the Aztecs punch their ticket to March Madness.
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🏀 San Diego State vs. Utah State picks & odds: Mountain West (March 14)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | +105 via FanDuel | 1u -> 1.05u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 145.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| San Diego State wins by 1-10 | +195 via FanDuel | 1u -> 1.95u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 4.36 units
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💰 San Diego State vs. Utah State prediction & best bet
Under 145.5 (-110)
Despite Utah State averaging 82.8 points per game, I love this Under. First, San Diego State is allowing opponents to make just 40% of their field goals, which is the 15th-lowest percentage in the nation. The Aztecs' defense has been on full display in both meetings with Utah State, holding the Aggies to just 71 and 72 points.
This is also the third game in three days for both teams. Tired legs were already a factor for San Diego State yesterday against New Mexico, as the Aztecs scored just 64, despite reaching at least 76 in both regular-season meetings.
Score prediction: San Diego State 71 - Utah State 69
🔥 Best San Diego State vs. Utah State player prop bet
San Diego State wins by 1-10 (+195)
San Diego State has won three consecutive games, and every victory has been by single digits. In fact, win or lose, seven of San Diego State's last eight games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.
While I've talked a lot about San Diego State's defense, Utah State's is actually allowing fewer points per game. You'd expect a team averaging over 82 points per game to give up a lot of points, but despite all the points they score, the Aggies' pace of play is slow. Utah State ranks 28th in offensive efficiency and just 184th in possessions per game.
With few possessions, and both teams playing on tired legs, I'll take the more defensive-minded team to win, but I don't see this game ever being a blowout.
🚀 San Diego State vs. Utah State same-game parlay
If San Diego State is going to pull off this upset, it's going to be with defense. Sure, San Diego State dropped 89 on Utah State earlier this season, but the Aztecs haven't scored more than 71 at the Mountain West tournament, and I don't expect that to change tonight. FanDuel is currently offering the total one point higher than DraftKings, and the sportsbook is giving a slightly better price for the San Diego State moneyline.
💵 San Diego State vs. Utah State SGP picks
- San Diego State
- Under 145.5
Best odds: +252 via FanDuel (1u -> 2.52u)
💡 How I'm betting San Diego State vs. Utah State
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
San Diego State is the more desperate team in this matchup, as they're currently on the wrong side of the bubble in many projections. Between that fact and their defensive skill, I'm willing to risk one unit on the Aztecs to win. And if they do win, they'll win by 10 or fewer, so I'll risk another unit on that winning margin.
The Under is my favorite play of the game. However, with the number dropping, what would have been a two-unit play at Under 147.5 is now just a 1.5-unit play at 145.5.
📊 Live San Diego State vs. Utah State odds: Mountain West
While the spread hasn't changed, the total has been falling consistently. It opened at 148.5, and it's down to 144.5 at DraftKings and 145.5 at FanDuel. At 145.5, I'd still make this a four-star play, but anything lower is a three-star play or worse. I wouldn't go any lower than 140.5. As for the San Diego State moneyline, I'd even back the Aztecs as small favorites of -1.5.
📈 San Diego State vs. Utah State betting trends
| San Diego State | Statistic | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| 22-10 | W-L record | 27-6 |
| 15-15 | ATS record | 14-18 |
| 15-15 | O/U record | 19-13 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
📺 How to watch San Diego State vs. Utah State: Mountain West
- Date: Saturday, March 14
- Tipoff: 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Thomas & Mack Center (Las Vegas)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
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