🏀 Samford vs. Southern Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness First Four (March 19)
I'm prepared for a defensive slugfest, as both No. 16 Samford and No. 16 Southern enter this First Four game averaging fewer than 62 points per game.
My best Samford vs. Southern prediction for Thursday's 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2/ESPN+) women's March Madness game at Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, S.C., focuses on how the strong defenses of both teams will be further highlighted by poor offensive play. Southern is favored by 3.5 over sub-.500 Samford.
For more NCAA Tournament picks, check out our women's March Madness odds.
🏀 Samford vs. Southern picks & odds: Women's March Madness First Four
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samford +3.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 117.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Samford Under 57.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 1.35u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.08 units
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🏆 Who will win Samford vs. Southern?
I'm taking Southern to win this game by two points, because Southern can overcome a poor shooting night with extra possessions thanks to winning the turnover battle.
Score prediction: Southern 53, Samford 51
💰 Samford vs. Southern prediction & best bet
Under 117.5 (-110)
Not only is Samford averaging just 60.2 points per game, but the Bulldogs are also averaging the 31st-fewest field goal attempts per contest (53.8). Southern is holding opponents to just 38.7% from the field, so Samford's few shots won't result in much success.
And while Southern averages 11.5 steals per game, the 21st-most nationally, the Jaguars don't do much with their extra possessions. Southern is averaging just 61.9 points per game, and while Samford has struggled defensively at times this season, the Bulldogs have held six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 points.
🔥 Best Samford vs. Southern team prop bet
Samford Under 57.5 (-110)
Just how bad has the Samford offense been this season? The Bulldogs have been held below 70 points 25 times and have failed to reach 60 on 15 occasions.
Samford is also averaging 15.4 turnovers per game, which will be very problematic against one of the best teams in the nation when it comes to steals. But Samford won't be able to steal any extra possessions, as the Bulldogs average just 6.2 steals per game, 35th-fewest in the country.
Southern has held three consecutive opponents to 56 or fewer points, holding 7 of its last 11 opponents below 57.5. With few possessions against a team that is very good defensively, Samford could win this game and still fail to hit this Over.
🚀 Samford vs. Southern same-game parlay
I realize that almost everything I've highlighted is an advantage for Southern. But 3.5 points is a lot when two teams that score as little as these two meet. Therefore, I'm taking the Under and the underdog for a standard parlay price at FanDuel. I'd probably wait until closer to tipoff to see if the total increases any further.
💵 Samford vs. Southern SGP picks
- Samford +3.5
- Under 117.5
Best odds: +231 via FanDuel (1u -> 2.31u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Samford vs. Southern: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
The Under feels like a lock, but I can't bring myself to wager more than two units on these two teams. And while I don't see Samford scoring more than 57.5, there's also a chance that Samford just faced tougher competition in the SoCon than Southern did in the SWAC. If that's the case, Samford will hit Over 57.5, so Under 57.5 is just a 1.5-unit play. As for the spread, it's close to a toss-up, but with how low-scoring I expect this to be, I'll back a one-possession game no matter who wins.
📊 Live Samford vs. Southern odds: Women's March Madness First Four
The total has actually increased from 116.5 to 117.5. If bettors continue to back the Over, I'll continue to grow more confident in the Under. This is a low number, but these teams have earned it. As for the spread, Southern opened a 2.5-point favorite, and the Jaguars are now favored by 3.5. Some sportsbooks have Samford +3.5 for -120, which indicates that this spread is more likely to fall to 2.5 than increase to 4.5.
📺 How to watch Samford vs. Southern: Women's March Madness First Four
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Colonial Life Arena (Columbia, S.C.)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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