🏀 Saint Louis vs. Michigan Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 2 (March 21)
The Round of 32 gets started with what is arguably my favorite March Madness matchup yet.
Saint Louis, a team I adore for its complicated offensive system, will face a Michigan defense good enough to win the national title under one of the better coaches in the sport, Dusty May.
It's a game for basketball nerds, with the No. 1 seed Wolverines listed as the 12.5-point betting favorite against the No. 9 Billikens. As a self-proclaimed basketball nerd, I'm eager to share my Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Saint Louis vs. Michigan picks & odds: March Madness Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis +12.5 | -102 via FanDuel | 0.4 -> 0.39u | ⭐⭐ |
| Under 161.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1.1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Robbie Avila Under 20.5 points + rebounds | -125 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.8u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.19 units
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🏆 Who will win Saint Louis vs. Michigan?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I predict Michigan, the March Madness odds favorites alongside Arizona, will win by 11 points in its Round of 32 matchup against a fun Saint Louis squad.
While it's difficult to prepare for the Billikens' ball-screen and motion offense on a short turnaround, there are few coaches I trust more to put together a solid game plan than May.
Score prediction: Michigan 84, Saint Louis 73
💰 Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction & best bet
Under 161.5 (-110)
According to the BBall Index, the Billikens rank in the 96th percentile in half-court offense and the 97th percentile in man offense. The Bulldogs' defensive ranks in those categories were 58th and 53rd percentiles, respectively.
To say this is a step up in competition would be an understatement. Michigan rates in the 96th percentile in half-court defense and man defense. The Wolverines are excellent at defending ball screens (91st percentile), which is what you need to do to slow down the Billikens.
This game is also a quick turnaround as the first matchup on Saturday, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some sleepy offensive play.
🔥 Best Saint Louis vs. Michigan player prop bet
Robbie Avila Under 20.5 points + rebounds (-125)
The best sports betting sites know that bettors want to have action on Saint Louis big man Robbie Avila. Heck, I cashed an Over on his assist prop in Round 1 and would be interested in a similar angle when those markets become available.
For now, I like the value of fading his points-and-rebounds combo line.
He finished with 12 points and five rebounds in 28 minutes against Georgia, which was as favorable a matchup as possible. Michigan ranks in the top 50 in rebound rates on both ends of the floor, while posting the fourth-best 2-point defensive percentage.
Avila's season averages (12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds) suggests he has a hard time clearing this number on most nights. I doubt he does it against his toughest opponent of the season.
🚀 Saint Louis vs. Michigan same-game parlay
FanDuel is the lone shop offering Avila's combo line, so I'm placing my Saint Louis vs. Michigan parlay at that book.
I don't feel confident in the Saint Louis' spread, so I replaced that with Michigan ML for this SGP. It reduced the potential payout, but the win rate is certainly higher.
💵 Saint Louis vs. Michigan SGP picks
- Michigan ML
- Under 161.5
- Robbie Avila Under 20.5 points + rebounds
Best odds: +219 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 0.44u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-25 | +1.01 units ✅ | 3.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 8-5 | +3.44 units ✅ | 29.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-6 | -2.15 units ❌ | -23.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -0.31 units ❌ | -22.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Saint Louis vs. Michigan: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Saint Louis was my favorite team heading into this tournament, which is probably why I nailed the handicap for its Round 1 matchup. I cashed all three Saint Louis vs. Georgia bets as well as the parlay for my most profitable matchup of the first day.
And that's why I feel extra confident about how I've approached Saint Louis vs. Michigan. This is truly a step up in competition for the Billikens, who had shown signs of fading before their tourney win. They went 4-4 down the stretch after a 24-1 start.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Saint Louis struggled against the best team it's faced all year, so sadly, I'm betting against its high-octane offense.
📊 Live Saint Louis vs. Michigan odds: March Madness Round 2
Michigan opened as high as a 13-point betting favorite at Caesars, but the spread has dropped down to 12.5 across the board.
The total has remained steady at 161.5, though I'd suspect it would move based on any spread movement. If bettors prefer Michigan, this total will drop. If they prefer Saint Louis, I expect the total to climb.
📈 Saint Louis vs. Michigan betting trends
| Saint Louis | Statistic | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 29-5 | Record | 32-3 |
| 18-15 | ATS record | 32-3 |
| 17-16 | O/U record | 14-21 |
| 32nd | KenPom ranking | 3rd |
| 120.1 (43rd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 127 (7th) |
| 100.1 (35th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 89.8 (2nd) |
📺 How to watch Saint Louis vs. Michigan: March Madness Round 2
- Date: Saturday, March 21
- Tipoff: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: CBS App
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