🏀 Saint Louis vs. Georgia Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)

If you are a fan of good offense and the schematic elements of college hoops, Thursday's late-night showdown between No. 9 Saint Louis and No. 8 Georgia is the game for you. Get your popcorn ready before tipoff from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS).

Georgia is a 2.5-point betting favorite, but the total (170) tells the real story of this March Madness matchup. Both teams have paths to offensive success, though my Saint Louis vs. Georgia prediction is betting on the Billikens to have the last laugh as part of our March Madness predictions.

🏀 Saint Louis vs. Georgia picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.12 units

🏆 Who will win Saint Louis vs. Georgia?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I'm predicting Saint Louis to win by two points in a game that could come down to whichever team has the ball last. The Billikens have limped into the NCAA Tournament following their 24-1 start, finishing 4-4 over the past month. But I'm betting that has led to a tiny bit of value on a fun Saint Louis squad.

Score prediction: Saint Louis 85, Georgia 83

💰 Saint Louis vs. Georgia prediction & best bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Saint Louis ML (+124)

Saint Louis has an efficient offense under head coach Josh Schertz, who will almost certainly be a top candidate this offseason.

The Billikens run a lot of great ball-screen sets, which is why their half-court offense ranks in the 96th percentile, and their man offense is in the 97th percentile (per BBall Index). Georgia ranks in the 58th and 53rd percentiles, respectively, due to its struggles when defending ball screens. If the Bulldogs don't find success with their press, the Billikens will score a lot of points.

At the same time, Georgia's offense is due for some regression after posting the sixth-best 3-point percentage over the last month.

This is a coin-flip matchup, but one I'm comfortable selling high on Georgia, and buying low on Saint Louis.

🔥 Best Saint Louis vs. Georgia player prop bet

Our March Madness betting trends break down which coaches have been the most profitable in the NCAA Tournament.

Robbie Avila Over 3.5 assists (-130)

There is no way I wasn't betting on Robbie Avila in Round 1, but I actually like this angle a lot, given the potential game script on Thursday.

Georgia will deploy a full-court pressure defense, while mixing in some zone looks. That means Avila, a 6-foot-10 center, should be an option for an outlet pass or in the middle of the zone.

When the ball is in Avila's hands, he's one of the better passing big men in college hoops. He's cleared this assist line in 20 of his 33 games, averaging 4.1 dimes this season.

🚀 Saint Louis vs. Georgia same-game parlay

With bet365 the only book to offer Avila's passing prop, I placed my Saint Louis vs. Georgia parlay at that shop. I had to sacrifice some value on the other two legs, as Saint Louis is +120 to win and -120 to score more than 39.5 points in the first half. This three-leg parlay is extremely correlated, which is why it only comes out to +390.

💡 How I'm betting Saint Louis vs. Georgia: March Madness strategy

This game has the potential to be one of the best matchups in Round 1. While I could see it going either way, I do prefer the Saint Louis side at a plus-money value.

In my opinion, this is a buy-low spot on Saint Louis, which can get back on track in this matchup due to Georgia's struggles at defending ball screens. With multiple days of preparation for Schertz, I could see the Billikens having better results in the first half before the Bulldogs adjust at the break.

Plus, I found a player prop worth playing for Avila. I'm pleased with the way I've allocated two units for this late-night showdown.

📊 Live Saint Louis vs. Georgia odds: March Madness First Round

Georgia opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line is down to 1.5 at some shops. The total, meanwhile, has dropped from 170.5 to 169.5.

This game is a difficult one to project, so I wouldn't be surprised if the spread remains around one basket. The total has room to drop, particularly if the Under fares better leading into the late window on Thursday.

📈 Saint Louis vs. Georgia betting trends

📺 How to watch Saint Louis vs. Georgia: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: CBS App