🏀 Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction: Big Ten Championship Odds & Picks (March 15)

My Purdue vs. Michigan prediction for today's Big Ten Championship at United Center in Chicago focuses on No. 3 Michigan's dominance on both offense and defense. Michigan is favored by 6.5 over No. 18 Purdue ahead of tipoff at 3:30 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.

Michigan won the only regular-season meeting between these two teams 91-80. I expect a similar result today. I also believe that Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn is in for a huge performance after he dropped 27 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in his first meeting with Michigan.

It's the last conference championship before we get fully into Selection Sunday.

🏀 Purdue vs. Michigan picks & odds: Big Ten (March 15)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 4.97 units

💰 Purdue vs. Michigan prediction & best bet

Michigan -6.5 (-108)

Michigan has survived back-to-back scares in the Big Ten tournament, but this is a team with 24 double-digit wins this season. One of those victories came over Purdue, despite Michigan losing the turnover battle 14-6.

Michigan shot 53% in the first meeting, and I expect a similar performance today, as the Wolverines are shooting 50.9% from the field this season. Meanwhile, Purdue ranks 201st in opponent field goal percentage. And while Purdue shot 10% worse than their season average against Michigan, I don't anticipate a much better effort today, as Michigan has the top shooting defense in the nation.

Score prediction: Michigan 85 - Purdue 74

🔥 Best Purdue vs. Michigan player prop bet

Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 8.5 rebounds (-118)

Kaufman-Renn is averaging 8.7 rebounds per game, and he has 18 performances with at least nine rebounds. In his first matchup against Michigan, Kaufman-Renn grabbed 12 of Purdue's 31 rebounds.

Though Michigan is allowing just 31.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 24th in the nation, Kaufman-Renn hasn't backed down in similar matchups this season. On Feb. 14, Kaufman-Renn grabbed 12 rebounds against Iowa, a team that allowed the third-fewest rebounds in the nation. And just yesterday, he recorded 10 rebounds against a UCLA team allowing just 32.8 rebounds per game.

While Michigan has three players averaging 6.9 or more rebounds per game, that depth didn't bother Kaufman-Renn in the first meeting. Though Michigan had two players with 11 rebounds in that game, he still battled and finished with the most of any player.

🚀 Purdue vs. Michigan same-game parlay

While I believe that Michigan is about to cruise to victory in a high-scoring game, getting Kaufman-Renn involved in this parlay really helps elevate the odds. Kaufman-Renn grabbing a lot of rebounds in a high-scoring game that his team loses doesn't make sense to the algorithm. But by backing this, I'm able to get a +599 parlay where the worst odds of any leg are -108 at FanDuel.

💡 How I'm betting Purdue vs. Michigan

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

I'm feeling really confident in Michigan, which is why I'm wagering more units than usual on this game. If Michigan hadn't struggled in the Big Ten tournament thus far, the Wolverines would likely be favored by closer to double digits. So I'll risk two units on them covering this spread against a Purdue team that isn't as good as they've looked over the past two days.

And while I'm confident these two teams, averaging over 80 points per game, will score plenty in this contest, I'm more confident that Kaufman-Renn replicates his performance against Michigan earlier in the season. Even in a tough matchup, Kaufman-Renn is a two-unit play.

📊 Live Purdue vs. Michigan odds: Big Ten

The spread hasn't moved at all since opening at 6.5. I would take Michigan as long as the spread is in single digits, and based on the lack of early movement, there's no reason to expect the number to ever climb to 10. As for the total, the number has dropped from 152.5 to 150.5. This is great news since I'm backing the Over. However, I don't anticipate the total continuing to drop, as the low-scoring games from yesterday move to the back of bettors' minds, and what these teams have done all season moves to the forefront.

📈 Purdue vs. Michigan betting trends

📺 How to watch Purdue vs. Michigan: Big Ten

• Date: Sunday, March 15
• Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: United Center (Chicago)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+