🏀 Purdue vs. Arizona Prediction & Picks: March Madness Elite Eight (March 28)

No. 1 seed Arizona has its fourth straight conference tournament champion standing in the way of its first Final Four appearance under head coach Tommy Lloyd, as it faces No. 2 seed Purdue on Saturday night. Tipoff from SAP Center at San Jose is set for 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). The Wildcats are a 6.5-point betting favorite.

My Purdue vs. Arizona prediction recognizes how dominant the Wildcats have been to this point, but I am using that as a contrarian pick on the Boilermakers point spread, even if Arizona’s Ivan Kharchenkov is in for a big day offensively. It's all part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 Purdue vs. Arizona picks & odds: March Madness Elite Eight

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Purdue vs. Arizona?

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Arizona’s 147 wins over the last five seasons are the most by a team without a Final Four appearance. While the Wildcats are facing a Purdue team in its second Elite Eight in three seasons, they should still exert their physical dominance to grind out a close win and end that Final Four drought.

Score prediction: Arizona 77, Purdue 74

💰 Purdue vs. Arizona prediction & best bet

Purdue +6.5 (-112)

I’m not overreacting to Arizona’s dominant 21-point win over Arkansas (or Purdue’s subsequent 2-point win over Texas), as the Razorbacks had allowed opponents to shoot 68.7% at the rim all season, 6.1% above the national average.

Purdue had great preparation for Arizona’s size and physicality in its two matchups with Michigan, which it split by winning the Big Ten Tournament. The Boilermakers also showed that their No. 1-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency still hums when no one outside of Fletcher Loyer could make a 3-pointer, after they averaged 1.30 points per possession against Texas.

🔥 Best Purdue vs. Arizona player prop bet

Ivan Kharchenkov Over 11.5 points (-120)

Purdue has had difficulty guarding shot-creating wings with size all season, and that reared its ugly head when Texas’ Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain combined for 44 points on 17-of-28 shooting on Thursday.

Kharchenkov has a high floor, scoring in double figures in six of the last seven games, while exceeding this projected total in four. In the only game in that span he didn’t score in double figures, he still scored nine points while not lacking for shot volume, as his 11 field goal attempts were his most in the last 11 games.

Kharchenkov has also played 32-plus minutes in four of the last five, with the blowout win over No. 16 seed LIU being the only exception. He stays out of foul trouble consistently, and I expect Tommy Lloyd will again play him a heavy dose of minutes to take advantage of his 6-foot-7 frame against Purdue.

🚀 Purdue vs. Arizona same-game parlay

FanDuel offers the best number and price on Purdue's point spread, as all other top sports betting sites are either juiced as high as -115, or are a half-point lower at +6. But as of this writing, it was also the only sports book offering player props on Arizona's players, and Kharchenkov was a must-add to this same-game parlay.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Purdue vs. Arizona: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I toyed with the idea of making Purdue +6.5 a two-unit wager, seeing as how I expect the public to overreact to each team's varying Sweet 16 results, and that Arizona has not trailed the entire tournament. But I stayed with one unit on each play, which also includes another likely contrarian play on the Under after Arizona scored 109 points, the second-most by any team in March Madness thus far.

If Purdue jumps out to a halftime lead, I would also look into live betting the Under, since it tends to slow down tempo considerably when leading.

📊 Live Purdue vs. Arizona odds: March Madness Elite Eight

After Caesars and bet365 were the only two of our best sports betting sites to open at Arizona -6, bet365 has since aligned with the rest of the market at -6.5, leaving Caesars the only one with a six-point spread. Arizona is likely to be a popular public side, and it has already gotten 80% of the bets on DraftKings. I wouldn't put any Purdue supporters off waiting to see if the line ever creeps up to +7 or higher.

FanDuel was originally the only sportsbook to open with a total of 151.5, but DraftKings has since lowered its opening number from 152.5 down to 151.5 as well. I don't expect this movement to be the norm, as 78% of early wagers back the Over.

📈 Purdue vs. Arizona betting trends

📺 How to watch Purdue vs. Arizona: March Madness Elite Eight

• Date: Saturday, March 28
• Tipoff: 8:49 p.m. ET
• Location: SAP Center at San Jose (San Jose, Calif.)
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: HBO Max