🏀 Prairie View A&M vs. Southern Prediction: SWAC Championship Game Odds & Picks (March 14)

Prairie View A&M looks to continue its Cinderella run as the No. 8 seed when it faces No. 3 seed Southern in the SWAC Championship Game for the right to go to the NCAA Tournament. Tipoff from Gateway Center in College Park, Ga., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU), with Southern listed as a 3.5-point betting favorite. 

My Prairie View A&M vs. Southern prediction backs the Panthers on the point spread, but my most confident play is on the Under, as Prairie View A&M has been one of the best defensive teams in the country amid a six-game winning streak. I also added a game prop pick that would pay out at +165 odds.

Our college basketball conference tournament guide provides all the info you need ahead of Selection Sunday.      

🏀 Prairie View A&M vs. Southern picks & odds: SWAC Championship Game (March 14)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.51 units

💰 Prairie View A&M vs. Southern prediction & best bet

Under 150.5 (-105)

Prairie View A&M is 12-18 to the Under, compared to a 20-10 O/U record for Southern, despite playing at a faster adjusted tempo (top-20) than the Jaguars. 

The Panthers have cashed the Under in seven of their last eight games, largely because the first half Under is 6-0 in their last six. 

Prairie View has found great success during its six-game winning streak slowing tempo after building a halftime lead. It should continue to rely on its D-I best effective field goal percentage defense which it has sported through the winning streak, per Bart Torvik.

Score prediction: Southern 74, Prairie View A&M 73

🔥 Best Prairie View A&M vs. Southern game prop bet

Either team to win by 1-5 points (+165)

Prairie View A&M and Southern split their two regular season meetings, with both games being decided by five or fewer points. That makes these +165 odds at a 37.74% implied probability enticing, especially since the point spread is as low as Southern -2.5 at FanDuel.

Through the Panthers’ six-game winning streak, they have played just one game within this five-point margin (though another nine-point win came in overtime). 

But Southern has had a habit of playing close games of late, with three straight victories coming by exactly three points, and four of its last five games staying within this margin.

🚀 Prairie View A&M vs. Southern same-game parlay

With my analysis that this should be a hotly contested SWAC Championship Game, backing the underdogs at +3.5 while getting +165 odds on the winning margin to be within five points plays nicely together.

DraftKings is my go-to sportsbook for this wager, not just because of its extensive game prop offerings, but because it was the only top sports betting site offering both Prairie View A&M at +3.5 (compared to +3 or lower) and the Under of 150.5 at less than the standard -110 juice.

💡 How I'm betting Prairie View A&M vs. Southern

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

My four stars of confidence in the Under 150.5 in spite of Southern's gaudy 20-10 O/U record comes from the expectation that Prairie View A&M will keep the game competitive, especially early. The Panthers put on a clinic in their semifinal win over Alabama A&M in holding the Bulldogs to eight points through the first 10 minutes of the second half after building a 15-point halftime lead, largely because it drained the shot clock.

If Prairie View A&M falls behind early, it could force it to do things it hasn't had to do during its six-game winning streak. But it is hard to overlook the Panthers' top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and second-ranked 2-point percentage defense over the last three weeks, which is why I expect this to be a close-fought defensive struggle throughout.

📊 Live Prairie View A&M vs. Southern odds: SWAC Championship Game

While FanDuel has held firm with an opening number of Southern -2.5 since last night, BetMGM has moved to -3.5 after opening at the same number. DraftKings saw the most support on the underdog after opening at -3.5. But even though its spread was quickly bet to -2.5, it also has re-aligned with the majority of the market at -3.5.

My Under bet seems to align with sharp action, as most of the top sports betting sites opened with O/Us much higher at 153.5 or 152.5 before being slammed with Under money. As of this writing two-thirds of the wagers on the total have supported the Under.

📈 Prairie View A&M vs. Southern betting trends

📺 How to watch Prairie View A&M vs. Southern: SWAC Championship Game

• Date: Saturday, March 14
• Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Gateway Center (College Park, Ga.)
• TV: ESPNU
• Streaming: ESPN+