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North Carolina vs. Virginia ACC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Tar Heels Improve Resume?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 9, 2023 8:49 AM EST • 2 min 61 sec read.

Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels hopes to lead his club in our North Carolina vs. Virginia picks.
Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes 89-84 in overtime during the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 17, 2022. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images/AFP.

Two of the top three projected teams in the ACC preseason poll meet in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament as No. 2 seed Virginia faces No. 7 seed North Carolina. Read on for our North Carolina vs. Virginia college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

Virginia and North Carolina split their two regular-season meetings, with each team winning on its home floor. After Virginia won seven straight head-to-head meetings from 2016-21, North Carolina has won three or the previous four. 

North Carolina is coming off its biggest win against an ACC opponent this year, beating Boston College 85-61 on Wednesday. Will the Tar Heels earn another much-needed victory to strengthen their NCAA tournament resume, or will the Cavaliers continue their pursuit of their first ACC tournament title since 2018?

Here is our best North Carolina vs. Virginia college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

North Carolina vs. Virginia odds

North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction

North Carolina +2 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Virginia has a rest advantage after earning a double bye. Still, the Cavaliers have performed poorly in those situations, covering just three of the eight games where they have had more rest than their opponents. In addition, we have seen many times in conference tournaments where having a game under one’s belt has that team more in rhythm than the team with the long layoff.

We're not taking much away from Virginia’s 65-58 win in Charlottesville over UNC this year, as Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot played just one minute and missed the rest of the game with an ankle injury. Bacot is instrumental in what the Tar Heels want to do offensively as their only legitimate post presence. He has torched the Cavaliers in the past, posting a monster 29-point and 22-rebound double-double against them in a home win last year, and we don't expect the ankle tweak he suffered Wednesday to hamper him. 

Virginia’s pack line defense always leaves itself vulnerable to hot-shooting perimeter teams, and the Cavaliers rank in the top 50 nationally in the highest percentage of opponents’ points coming from 3-point range. That coincides with the metric that Virginia ranked ninth in ACC play in defending the perimeter (35.0% 3-point percentage allowed). Thus, this is a three-star play, as North Carolina’s guard tandem of Caleb Love and RJ Davis has played well of late. Love has scored in double figures in 17 consecutive games (six 20-plus point games in that span), and Davis has averaged 17.5 ppg (and shooting 54.5% from 3-point range) over the last four. 

In front of a pro-Tar Heels crowd in Greensboro, we expect North Carolina to improve upon its 13-5 ACC tournament ATS record since 2015.  

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

North Carolina vs. Virginia best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+2+1.5+1.5+2+2
-2 -110+2 -110-1.5 -120+1.5 -102-1.5 -105+1.5 -115-2 -110+2 -110-2 -110+2 -110

While DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet offer the same +2 points at -110 odds, it's important to note that the other two competing sportsbooks (BetMGM and FanDuel) are complete opposites on who they're charging more juice on to back at a spread of 1.5. At +2, it will be tempting for UNC backers to wager on the moneyline for better value, but we're not taking any chances with these sharp conference tournament lines.

North Carolina vs. Virginia odds analysis

Virginia opened as consensus 1.5-point favorites overnight, but any line movement that has occurred since has moved in the direction of the Tar Heels, who are as high as +2 at several sportsbooks. Fifty-eight percent of all point-spread bets have backed Virginia.

The O/U has remained firm at the opening number of 129.5 across all sportsbooks. Despite the Over attracting 62% of all wagers, there has not yet been any line movement.

North Carolina vs. Virginia game info

  • Date: Thursday, March 9, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC

North Carolina-Virginia pick made 3/9/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.