🏀 North Carolina vs. UConn Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Sweet 16 (March 27)
No. 1 UConn will look to keep its undefeated season alive against upset-minded No. 4 North Carolina.
My best North Carolina vs. UConn prediction for Friday's 5 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+) women's March Madness at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, focuses on North Carolina's offensive struggles against some of the best teams in the country. Depending on the sportsbook, UConn is favored by 26.5 or 27.5 points based on the latest women's March Madness odds, and I'm anticipating another blowout win for the Huskies.
🏀 North Carolina vs. UConn picks & odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UConn -26.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 131.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Blanca Quinonez Over 11.5 points | -129 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.55u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.28 units
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🏆 Who will win North Carolina vs. UConn?
I'm taking UConn to win this game by 30 points, because the Huskies have the best scoring defense in the country, and North Carolina hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of its five losses to ranked opponents this season.
Score prediction: UConn 83, North Carolina 53
💰 North Carolina vs. UConn prediction & best bet
UConn -26.5 (-110)
UConn is allowing just 50.3 points per game, and the Huskies have held eight consecutive opponents to 52 points or fewer. While North Carolina averages 75.6 points per game, the Tar Heels have struggled against top defenses, scoring just 60 against UCLA, 64 against Texas, and 57 against Louisville.
And while North Carolina allows just 58.9 points per game, UConn has scored at least 80 points in 32 of its 36 games. Additionally, UConn has won eight straight games by at least 30 points and has defeated three ranked opponents by at least 26 points this year.
🔥 Best North Carolina vs. UConn player prop bet
Blanca Quinonez Over 11.5 points (-129)
In her first two games of the tournament, Quinonez totaled 33 points, scoring at least 15 in each game, despite averaging just 10.4 per game this season. She also shot an astounding 13-of-20 from the field, which is no surprise since she's shooting 53.4% this season.
While North Carolina is a 4-seed, I still expect this to be a blowout. And while Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong, the Huskies' two leading scorers, tend to see their playing time fluctuate, Quinonez very consistently plays around her average of 19.8 minutes per game. She's played at least 18 minutes in all but four games.
For as good as the North Carolina defense has been, the Tar Heels have allowed at least 65 in every game against a ranked opponent, giving up 76 or more four times this season.
🚀 North Carolina vs. UConn same-game parlay
At the time of writing, there are no player props available at FanDuel, so I unfortunately have to take UConn -27.5 instead of -26.5. Still, Quinonez and UConn are going to score with ease against North Carolina, just like every other ranked opponent has this season. The only real question surrounding this parlay is whether North Carolina can score enough for the game to go Over.
💵 North Carolina vs. UConn SGP picks
- UConn -27.5
- Over 131.5
- Blanca Quinonez Over 11.5 points
Best odds: +370 via DraftKings (1u -> 3.7u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-44 | +29.27 units ✅ | +28.4% ✅ |
| Game picks | 24-19 | +16.66 units ✅ | +26.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ✅ | +136.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting North Carolina vs. UConn: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I know that North Carolina is one of the best defensive teams in the country and a No. 4 seed. However, this UConn team has been dominating everyone this season, and I am happily risking two units on them covering this spread. I'll also throw two units on Quinonez, as I expect her role to look exactly how it has all season, while Fudd and Strong could see reduced playing time. For the total, I'm only risking one unit, simply because its hard to predict totals in blowouts.
📊 Live North Carolina vs. UConn odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
UConn opened as a 25.5-point favorite, and the spread quickly grew to 27.5 at most major sportsbooks. While it has settled at 26.5 at some sportsbooks, it doesn't look like it will ever drop back to the opening line. But it seems public support for the Huskies has slowed as well, so I don't expect the spread to grow larger than 27.5. The total opened at 131.5, and it hasn't moved at all, as both of these teams are sound defensively, but UConn has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country.
📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. UConn: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
- Date: Friday, March 27
- Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Location: Dickies Arena (Fort Worth, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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