Wisconsin vs. Oregon Predictions, Odds & Picks: Stifling Defenses Control Pace in NIT Quarterfinals
Two power conference programs playing good defense will match up Tuesday in what could be a tight NIT battle in Eugene. Read on for our Wisconsin vs. Oregon prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
The NIT continues Tuesday as No. 1-seed Oregon (21-14) and No. 3-seed Wisconsin (19-14) do battle in Eugene. With both sides playing quality defensive basketball lately, could we see the type of matchup that leans Under the total on Tuesday night?
Here is our best Wisconsin vs. Oregon prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wisconsin vs. Oregon odds
Wisconsin vs. Oregon prediction
Under 131.5 (-105 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐
Oregon has played stifling defense so far in this NIT, holding both UC Irvine and UCF in the 50s in the Ducks’ opening pair of games. This matchup with Wisconsin is expected to continue that trend - arguably on both sides as the Badgers have a team built around their defensive identity, as well.
Wisconsin endured more of a barnburner than it’s used to when the Badgers outlasted the Liberty Flames 75-71, but that occasion was the first time that Wisconsin has allowed an opponent to reach 70 points across five March affairs. At 342nd in adjusted tempo, Wisconsin is one of the slowest teams in the country in terms of pace offensively.
The Ducks rank outside the top 200 in AdjT and have been able to stifle opponents over the past month, allowing just one 70-point total since mid-February. Unless either side shows outlandish efficiency on the offensive end, we’re likely to see a close battle in the low-60s between the teams ranked with the 27th and 53rd-best defensive efficiency metrics in Division 1.
Oregon road games have gone 9-11 on Overs this season. Recent trends for both sides suggest this could be another low-scoring affair inside Matthew Knight Arena.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon best odds
|Under 131||Under 131.5||Under 131.5||Under 131.5||Under 131.5|
Although we’ve lost a few points of value since this line opened, it hasn’t been steamed enough to take me off the Under in this spot. Four of the five recommended books have the number at 131.5, with DraftKings at 131 as the exception.
While any among FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet are fine values, FanDuel’s current odds at -105 take the cake over the -110 odds offered by their competitors. It’s possible FanDuel realizes it’s the outlier at this point and makes an adjustment, but until then, this is the best value on the board for Under bettors.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon odds analysis
Oregon opened as a 4.5-point favorite but has seen that number drop down to between -2.5 and -3 across our affiliated sportsbooks. In spite of that line movement, 59% of wagers have come in on the Ducks.
The total has seen a stark decline after opening at 134.5. The number is down to between 131 and 131.5 across our recommended sportsbooks. Roughly 58% of wagers have gone Under.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon game info
- Date: Tuesday, March 21, 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
Wisconsin-Oregon pick made 3/21/2023 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
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