Free College Basketball Picks: NCAAB Predictions & Best Bets

Jackson Rasmussen only had a 6.1% offensive rebounding rate and an 11.4% defensive rebounding rate in five games against “Tier B” opponents, per KenPom. The physicality against a Houston team will be too much to overcome for him to exceed this projected total for just the second time in the last five games.

The Vandals get next to nothing offensively inside the arc, ranking ninth among Big Sky teams in the percentage of points coming from 2-point range.

Denzel Aberdeen has been distributing the ball effectively for Kentucky this season, averaging 3.6 assists per game. He's increased his playmaking in this area of late, averaging 4.85 assists per game over his past seven contests.

This is an area in which Kentucky can exploit Santa Clara, as the Broncos permit 15.2 assists per game to the opposition (295th). They've been particularly generous of late, allowing 19.0 assists per game over their past three games.

While Santa Clara has the slightly better offense according to the metrics (23rd vs. 39th in ORtg), the differential on the defensive end should make the difference in this game. Kentucky boasts a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency, with Santa Clara falling outside the top 80.

Akron is pure electricity, as the Zips can shoot threes with the best of them (10.9 made threes per game) but have one of the weaker defensive teams in the field. That leads to points against Texas Tech's 12th-ranked ORtg.

Hardman has been on a heater from deep range recently, knocking down three or more triples in four of his past five games.

While the Zips might hit some keys threes, Akron's defensive efficiency (113th) will ultimately create too much of a deficit against Texas Tech's potent offense (12th in adjusted efficiency). 

Arizona should score in the mid-90s, but I have very little confidence in Long Island to score due to being outsized and a poor shooting team. It's safer to bet Arizona's team total Over than to rely on Long Island to have any offensive success.

Arizona is a much bigger team than Long Island, and Long Island has the added deficiency of not being a very good 3-point shooting team, making just 6.0 per game. This spread is huge, but Arizona has six 30-point wins this year.

Awaka is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, and he has 15 double-digit rebounding performances this season. Even if he sees limited minutes, he's recorded 18 rebounds in 19 minutes against Utah Tech and 16 rebounds in 20 minutes against Denver.

Virginia’s only two losses since late January were to overall No. 1 seed Duke. But the Raiders can stay close in this matchup since the Cavaliers are outside of the top-100 in defensive rebounding percentage, turnover rate forced, and free throw rate allowed.

Wright State is averaging 80.7 points per game and shoots 48.8% from the floor. This high shooting percentage should help the Raiders stay within striking distance late.

Virginia scored over 80 points in 11 of 13 nonconference games, averaging 88.3 against non-power teams. Wright State struggles defensively, ranking 193rd in defensive efficiency, and offensively, the Raiders average 80.7 points per game.

De Ridder does most of his scoring from inside the arc, which is where Wright State is easiest to exploit. Wright State allows 40.8 points from 2-pointers this season, which ranks 323rd in the country.

Iowa State is averaging 81.8 points per game and is the second-best shooting team in the country. Tennessee State ranks 212th in defensive adjusted rating, so even if Tennessee State struggles to score, Iowa State is going to get near 100.

Iowa State shoots 38.7% from deep, and the defense ranks fourth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom. Tennessee State ranks 126th in opponent 3-point percentage, despite no team in their conference shooting better than 35.6% from deep.

Lipsey is averaging 5.0 assists per game this season. Considering he's averaging 6.1 against non-power conference teams, and Iowa State is the second-best shooting team in the nation, I expect him to easily clear his season average.

Edmead leads Hofstra with 90 made 3-pointers, and he's shooting 38.3% from deep this season. Alabama ranks 169th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage.

Alabama has the highest-scoring offense in the nation, but this is a huge number no matter what teams are playing. Plus, Hofstra ranks 19th in scoring defense, so the Pride should be able to hold Alabama at least slightly below their season average of 91.7.

Hofstra is making 36.8% of their 3-pointers this season (33rd-best in the nation), and is about to face a defense that ranks 169th in opponent 3-point percentage. Hofstra also has the 19th-best scoring defense and should be able to keep this close with the nation's highest-scoring offense.

Lewis has failed to reach double-digit points in three of his past four games as the freshman seems to be hitting a wall down the stretch. We expect this game total to go Under, which could correlate to another quiet performance from Lewis.

Villanova's measured pace (296th in adjusted tempo) should limit possessions and suppress scoring as both teams possess top-45 defensive units.

Utah State's elite offensive efficiency and interior scoring (11th in nation in two-point percentage) should have the edge over Villanova's mediocre two-point defense (170th).

Miami (OH) won't hit 16 threes against Tennessee's stifling defense, which will be the best unit the Redhawks have seen all year. The Vols allow just 69.4 PPG.

Elmer has racked up three or more made threes in only 12 of his 33 games this season. Tennessee allows just 30.6% from beyond the arc.

Tennessee is stingy against the three-point shot and should stifle Miami (OH), which still hasn't faced a quality opponent if you're as skeptical of SMU as I was.

Iowa holds opponents to 11.6 assists per game (38th in nation), and although he's on a recent heater, Ace Buckner has only racked up 3+ assists 10 times in 34 games.

Iowa's winning March Madness experience after Ben McCollum brought a whole crew with him from Drake should benefit the Hawkeyes. Of these two similarly-styled squads, Iowa has the superior balance to Clemson.

I like Iowa's scoring and free-throw shooting late to dictate the slow-paced matchup, and the Hawkeyes have played to a trend of 19-14 on Overs this season.

We like Zuby Ejiofor to make his mark on the glass in this matchup, although the trends suggest he'll have to outpace his 3.9 defensive rebounds per game to clear his line of 7.5 boards at FanDuel. Since UNI is virtually useless on the offensive glass (19.8%, 356th), I expect that he can make that happen.

I'd love to pick a trendy outright upset, because Northern Iowa's elite defensive efficiency (24th) against a St. John's team that struggles to find its shot is a recipe to make things interesting. UNI's brutal free-throw shooting (69.7%, 279th) keeps me from fully entertaining the idea.

Bilodeau has exceeded his 17.6 PPG scoring average in 19 of 31 games and faces a UCF defense that ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency.

UCF averages 81.0 PPG and faces a defense outside the top-50 in adjusted efficiency. UCF's defense is outside the top-100 in efficiency, so UCLA should be able to help pace this game Over with their strong offensive profile.

UCLA should have a comfortable matchup to post points given its 21st-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency against a UCF defense that ranks 237th in opposing FG percetage.

UCF falls under the trend of double-digit seeds from a power conference having success against top-9 seeds of late. Those teams (Texas A&M and Missouri also qualify this year) have covered at a 62% clip in this scenario since 2010-11.

Against a defense allowing 82.9 points per game, Purdue may score more than 100 in this game. Ultimately, whether this Over hits will come down to what Queens achieves offensively.

As a team, the Royals are averaging 84.9 points per game, so I'll back them to do just enough against a solid defense for this Over to hit.

According to KenPom, Purdue ranks first in adjusted offensive rating, which is going to be a problem for a Queens team that ranks 322nd in adjusted defensive rating.

Queens is allowing 82.9 points per game, which ranks 353rd in the country.

Kaufman-Renn leads Purdue with 8.5 rebounds per game, and this season, he grabbed at least 11 boards in all three games against non-power conference teams, where he played more than 20 minutes.

Thomas Haugh is averaging 1.8 made 3-pointers per game, and he's made at least two in 19 games this season. Prairie View A&M ranks 155th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage.

Florida is averaging 86.8 points per game, but I expect the Gators to stop playing key players as soon as this game gets out of hand to prep for the Round of 32. Prairie View A&M ranks 311th in adjusted offensive rating according to KenPom.

Prairie View A&M is 22-9 against the spread this season, the fourth-best mark in the country. Florida has won just two games by more than 35 points.

Both Kansas and Cal Baptist rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency, and they both rank 164th or worse in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Cal Baptist is shooting just 43.2% from the field (267th), and the Lancers should struggle against the third-best shooting defense in the country.

Cal Baptist ranks 265th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, so the Lancers will be able to slow this game down and use their top-50 defense to prevent Kansas from getting comfortable offensively.

Cal Baptist is allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game, and Peterson is averaging just 1.7 per contest. He has fewer than two assists in 14 of his 22 games this year.

UConn has held seven consecutive opponents to 72 or fewer points, ranks 11th in adjusted defensive rating from KenPom, and is allowing just 65.1 points per game.

But the offense has also scored 73 or fewer in six of its last seven games.

UConn is 3-2 in its last five games, with only one win by more than 16 points.

While Furman will struggle against one of the best defenses in the country, I worry about UConn's offense, which has scored 73 or fewer in six of seven games.

Demary is averaging 6.2 assists per game, and he recorded at least seven assists in three of his five games against non-power conference teams this season. 

Miami ranks 21 spots higher in KenPom and is balanced as a top-40 team both offensively and defensively. Missouri could get in trouble given its recent struggles with consistent guard play, as Miami forces 12.7 turnovers per game (76th in the nation).

These teams combine to average more than 160 points per game and both possess better offensive units than defensive profiles, per the KenPom ratings. 

Even in losing efforts, Mark Mitchell has scored 32 points in each of his last two games. Missouri's offensive attack runs, at times, exclusively through the senior, and Miami doesn't defend the two-point area well enough to stop him.