🏀 Miami vs. Purdue Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 22)
After No. 2 Purdue dispatched its No. 15 Queens with relative ease, the Boilermakers will be challenged by a No. 7 Miami squad that pulled away late in its first-round game on Friday night. The Hurricanes could find themselves behind the eight-ball with a quick turnaround to play in Sunday's opening action at 12:10 p.m. ET. Purdue is lined as a 7.5-point betting favorite.
My Miami vs. Purdue prediction, part of our March Madness predictions, likes the Boilermakers to comfortably pick up the victory and move to the Sweet 16. Tipoff from Enterprise Center in St. Louis is set for 12:10 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.
🏀 Miami vs. Purdue picks & odds: March Madness Second Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue -7.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1.1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Purdue Over 77.5 points | -114 via FanDuel | 1.14u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Braden Smith Over 9.5 assists | +100 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.5u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.74 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
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🏆 Who will win Miami vs. Purdue?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Purdue to win this one by nine points. The Hurricanes are getting more credit than they deserve off a 14-point win over Missouri in which Missouri's appalling percentage on layups made Miami look better than it was defensively. Miami's defense isn't strong enough to contain the second-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation.
Score prediction: Purdue 79, Miami 70
💰 Miami vs. Purdue prediction & best bet
Purdue -7.5 (-110)
Miami tried every which way to give away its game against Missouri and the Tigers simply ran out of steam and failed to execute the little things. I don't see Purdue making similar mistakes. The Boilermakers put up triple-digit points on Friday. Miami's 144th-ranked opposing field-goal percentage won't hold up against this Purdue offense.
Where Miami held another key edge against Missouri was in a 42-29 rebounding edge. While Miami is a statistically great rebounding unit (11th in rebounding rate), Purdue's is better (9th). Plus, Miami's strategy of packing the paint leaves the Canes susceptible to Purdue's 12th-ranked three-point shooting percentage (38.5%). Miami ranks 274th in opposing three-point rate.
🔥 Best Miami vs. Purdue player prop bet
Braden Smith Over 9.5 assists (+102)
Braden Smith set the all-time NCAA assists record in Purdue's First Round win over Queens, and I don't see any reason for him to stop now.
Even a Missouri team that didn't show well offensively against Miami mustered 16 assists on just 20 total made field goals. Miami clogged the paint which led to the majority of field-field goal opportunities to have a assist chance attached.
That's Miami's M.O. with their size on the interior. The Hurricanes permit 13.9 assists per game (217th) and has allowed 16.3 per game over its last three contests. Smith averages 9.0 assists per game on the year and has cleared this line in three of his past fives games.
🚀 Miami vs. Purdue same-game parlay
I like Purdue to produce a lopsided win in a higher-scoring effort as Miami's defense is statistically weak against the things Purdue does best, while the Hurricanes' rebounding edge should disappear. Braden Smith should have plenty of passing lanes in the type of game script we're anticipating.
💵 Miami vs. Purdue SGP picks
- Purdue -7.5
- Purdue Over 77.5 points
- Braden Smith Over 9.5 assists
Best odds: +300 via bet365 (0.5u -> 1.5u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 9, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-35-1 | -17.22 units ❌ | -29.4% ❌ |
| Spread | 4-7-1 | -4.70 units ❌ | -35.6% ❌ |
| Moneyline | 3-0 | +3 units ✅ | +75% ✅ |
| Over/Under | 5-8-1 | -2.83 units ❌ | -17% ❌ |
| Player props | 5-7 | -3.73 units ❌ | -26.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-12 | -7.81 units ❌ | -82.2% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Miami vs. Purdue: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
When it comes to bankroll management in this matchup, we're playing a unit on the spread and Purdue team total while dipping our Braden Smith assists prop down to a half unit at even money odds. We're adding another half unit on the SGP.
📊 Live Miami vs. Purdue odds: March Madness Second Round
The line opened at Purdue -7.5 and has remained in that area to this point. Odds are -110 outside of DraftKings, which has Purdue at -112, perhaps indicating a slight lean toward moving further in that direction. The total is stagnant at 147.5 after opening at that number across our best sportsbooks.
📈 Miami vs. Purdue betting trends
| Miami | Statistic | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 26-8 | Record | 28-8 |
| 18-14-1 | ATS record | 16-20 |
| 20-12-1 | O/U record | 19-17 |
| 30th | KenPom ranking | 8th |
| 121.2 (32nd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 131.6 (2nd) |
| 100.8 (40th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 100.4 (37th) |
📺 How to watch Miami vs. Purdue: March Madness Second Round
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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