🏀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Four (March 18)

One MAC tournament loss for No. 11 Miami (OH) didn't lead to the nightmare scenario of a danceless March, but it did force a trip to UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, as the Redhawks must oust No. 11 SMU to earn a spot in the Round of 64. 

My Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction for the First Four sees the plucky mid-major kicking off March Madness by showing why it belongs in the field. Wednesday's action starts at 9:15 p.m. ET (truTV). SMU is a 7.5-point betting favorite, but in our March Madness predictions, we back Miami (OH) to give the Mustangs a fight.

🏀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU picks & odds: March Madness First Four

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.25 units | Max profit: 3 units

🏆 Who will win Miami (OH) vs. SMU?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I'm taking SMU to win this one by four points. SMU's high-octane offense should emerge with a narrow edge over a mediocre Miami defense that hasn't had to face a scoring unit of this caliber.

Score prediction: SMU 86, Miami (OH) 82

💰 Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction & best bet

Miami +7 (-110)

My belief in the Redhawks keeping this close is the notion that Miami (OH), which averages 87.2 PPG, can score on an SMU defense that has allowed 77.6 PPG (256th in nation).

The Mustangs rank 174th in opposing 3-point percentage and could be susceptible to the Redhawks letting it fly. Miami (OH) makes 37.5% of its threes (21st) and averages 9.8 made threes per game (34th).

Miami (OH) is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Several of the best sports betting sites have this line at Miami (OH) +6.5, and that's about as low as I'd play it.

🔥 Best Miami (OH) vs. SMU player prop bet

Boopie Miller Over 20.5 points (+100)

In analyzing Miami (OH)'s lack of defensive efficiency (156th in DRtg), I've settled on Boopie Miller as a scorer for SMU that should have a big day in this First Four matchup. The Redhawks rank 227th in opponent scoring average (76.3) despite not having played a Quad 1 game all year.

Miller has averaged 19.2 PPG while facing an ACC schedule and dropping 21 or more points in four of his last five games. He's seen a recent uptick in 3-point attempts, shooting eight or more in three straight games, boasting a pair of games in that span with five and seven made threes, respectively.

Miami allows opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3-point range (273rd in the nation) and should be susceptible to Miller's recent deep-ball usage to pace his scoring total.

🚀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU same-game parlay

I like both teams to pour on the points in this matchup, and I believe Miami can hit enough threes to cover the spread. SMU's Boopie Miller should feast against a Redhawk defense that hasn't seen many scorers of his ilk, correlating to the game total going Over in a narrow win for the Mustangs.

💡 How I'm betting Miami (OH) vs. SMU: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I have all three of my picks for this game as four-star recommendations, as I see Miami using its fifth-ranked scoring attack in the nation (87.2 PPG) to put up a good fight, with SMU ultimately scoring plenty to help the total go Over.

I'm looking to stick to single-unit bets for the majority of March Madness, but will consider bumping the Boopie Miller prop to two units considering Miami's defense has allowed 76.3 PPG (227th in NCAA) against inferior competition than Miller typically faces.

📊 Live Miami (OH) vs. SMU odds: March Madness First Four

Miami opened as a 7.5-point underdog but has moved to +6.5 or +7 across our best sports betting apps as the public looks to back this polarizing mid-major. The total has come down slightly from its open at 164.5, which is a move that I'm looking to take advantage of between these two productive offenses.

📈 Miami (OH) vs. SMU betting trends

📺 How to watch Miami (OH) vs. SMU: March Madness First Four

• Date: Wednesday, March 16
• Tipoff: 9:15 p.m. ET
• Location: UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
• TV: truTV
• Streaming: March Madness Live