Marquette vs. Kansas Prediction, Picks & Odds: Expect Uptempo Showdown in Maui Invitational Semifinal
For the nightcap of the Maui Invitational semifinals, here is our best Marquette vs. Kansas prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
After an opening round that went according to plan, Tuesday's semifinals of the Maui Invitational features four of the top-seven teams in the country. With a trip to the title game up for grabs, No. 1 Kansas will square off with No. 4 Marquette in the final game of the night.
This showdown should be a fast-paced battle between two of the best offenses in college basketball, a stark contrast to the other semifinal matchup in this event. But what is the best betting angle in a game where many markets will be higher than usual?
To accompany our Tennessee vs. Purdue prediction, here is our best Marquette vs. Kansas prediction for Tuesday's Maui Invitational matchup (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Don't miss our college basketball player props and best bets for more on Tuesday's action.
Marquette vs. Kansas prediction
K.J. Adams Jr. Over 1.5 assists (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's no secret that the market expects plenty of offense on Tuesday. KenPom projects an 80-77 victory for the Jayhawks, which is why you see the spread hovering around 4 and the total sitting at 157.5. Player props are priced a touch higher for many of the key players in this game, including KU big man Hunter Dickinson, who has a points prop of 20.5 ahead of Tuesday's tilt.
My favorite betting angle is on the other Kansas frontcourt member, however. Junior forward K.J. Adams Jr. is averaging 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists to begin the season. He scored eight points and dished out four assists during an opening-round win over Chaminade on Monday, a performance that took place after the recent death of his mother.
Adams has actually cleared this assist mark in three of the four games this season, with the lone exception being when he played a season-low 21 minutes in a blowout win over Manhattan. Yet none of KU's starters played a ton of minutes in that game.
The Jayhawks currently lead the nation in assists per field goals made with an assist rate of 77.1%. This has caused many of the starters to have a higher assist prop compared to what they were trading at earlier in the year. Kevin McCullar Jr., for example, now has an Over/Under of 5.5 assists after that mark was set at 2.5 in last week's Champions Classic.
But Adams is the lone starter who hasn't seen his assists prop climb, despite head coach Bill Self often praising his passing ability. As a result, don't be surprised if we see more high-low action between Adams and Dickinson moving forward.
This game could be a track meet in Hawaii, with Kansas ranking ninth in adjusted tempo and Marquette having the ninth-fastest average possession on offense. In an uptempo game, we have no problem betting on Adams to record multiple assists.
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Marquette vs. Kansas best odds
BetMGM (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | N/A | Over 1.5 assists | Over 1.5 assists | N/A |
| N/A | N/A | -110 | -115 | N/A |
Only two of our best sports betting sites even offer an assist prop for Adams, so our decision to shop at BetMGM was pretty simple. Keep an eye out to see if other sites will list Adams in the assist market before tipoff, but we'd be willing to play this at -120 or better.
Marquette vs. Kansas odds
Marquette vs. Kansas odds analysis
There hasn't been much movement on this marquee matchup. Kansas opened as a 5-point favorite, but is now laying -4 or -4.5 across our best sportsbooks. The total started at 157 before climbing up to 157.5.
Marquette vs. Kansas game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 21 at 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI
- How to watch: ESPN
Marquette-Kansas prediction made 11/21/2023 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
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