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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

With six games tipping off at or before noon E.T., we have you covered for Tuesday's college basketball slate with our daily college basketball player props and best bets based on the best college basketball odds.

On Monday, the Maui Invitational witnessed all the higher-ranked teams efficiently handling their business. Four teams ranked in the AP top 7 AP — Tennessee, Purdue, Kansas, and Marquette — advanced to the next stage. Marquette was the only one who failed to secure a double-digit victory.

Today's semifinal games feature four top-tier teams, showcasing the exceptional quality of this year's competition. The lineup highlights the depth and skill present in college basketball, treating fans to a pre-Thanksgiving spectacle reminiscent of Final Four intensity and excitement.

We dove deeper into the two semifinal matchups of the Maui Invitational with our Tennessee vs. Purdue prediction and Marquette vs. Kansas prediction.

Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Tuesday’s college basketball best bets

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Tuesday’s college basketball player props

Julian Reese (Maryland) Over 13.5 points vs. UMBC (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Maryland’s offensive struggles are a big reason for its 1-3 start, as it has scored 0.97 points per possession or worse in three consecutive losses. The Terrapins should find offense easier to come by against a UMBC team that plays at a break-neck top-two tempo in the country. That should create easy opportunities in transition while also maximizing Maryland’s amount of possessions, and Julian Reese stands to be one of the biggest benefactors against the undersized Retrievers. 

This is a four-star play, as Reese is one of two Maryland players to score in double figures in three games this season. This would be a more confident four-star play if Reese did not total just five points against the last up-tempo team Maryland played (UAB), but he only played 28 minutes in that game and had a season-low four free throw attempts before fouling out.

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Dawson Garcia (Minnesota) Under 7.5 rebounds vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota center Dawson Garcia leads the team in points (18.8), minutes (34.0), and rebounds (8.8). However, his rebounding average is buoyed by a solid 14-rebound performance on opening night against Bethune Cookman, as he has totaled eight or fewer boards in two of four games. 

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, securing 21% of its misses (ranks 334th) and allowing opponents a 40.4% offensive rebounding rate (348th). However, the Golden Lions play at the 19th-fastest tempo, which favors the guards and may not allow Garcia to get up and down the floor as quickly. In addition, UTSA was the only other team Minnesota played that ranked in the top 90 in tempo. In that game, Garcia secured just six rebounds, with one coming on the offensive glass despite the Roadrunners ranking 319th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. The Golden Gophers also have a road game against one of their most formidable non-conference opponents looming this weekend versus San Francisco. Thus, the coaching staff may be cautious with Garcia’s minutes as 16.5-point favorites.

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Tuesday’s college basketball game picks

Gonzaga -12 vs. Syracuse (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gonzaga was relegated to the loser’s bracket of the Maui Invitational after scoring just 0.86 points per possession against Purdue and shooting 18.8% (6-for-32) from 3-point range. The Orange would normally be a difficult prep in a tournament setting if they exclusively used Jim Boeheim’s trademark 2-3 zone. But Syracuse was using it on roughly half of possessions before the Tennessee game, and the Bulldogs are equipped to shred a zone given how frequently they see it in West Coast play.

Syracuse was heavily reliant on Judan Mintz’s scoring through the first three games, and he ranks in the top 20 in the country in percentage of the time he possesses the ball. However, Gonzaga has one of the best defensive guards in the country in Nolan Hickman, who had three steals against Purdue and looks like he is ready to make an even bigger jump after ranking in the top 11 in the conference in steal rate last season. Look for Gonzaga head coach Mark Few to dial up the defensive pressure on Mintz, and the Bulldogs will have too much offensive firepower and will run away from Syracuse. 

This is a four-star play, as Gonzaga has covered three of its four games on zero rest dating back to the start of the 2021 season. Caesars is slightly higher on the Bulldogs at -12.5, and DraftKings is the only shop charging less than -110 odds to back the favorites at the best number available.

Fresno State -4.5 vs. New Mexico State (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Fresno State’s strength is its mammoth frontcourt, with its ability to rotate in three players that stand 6-foot-11. The Bulldogs’ size is a big reason they rank in the top 10 in 2-point shooting percentage (62.2%), but they are prepared to knock down perimeter shots if opponents double-team their bigs, as they are shooting better than 44% (seventh-best in D-I) from 3-point range.

Fresno State will have trouble with opponents that pressure its guards, as evidenced by a 79-69 loss to Kent State, where they were forced into 22 turnovers. However, New Mexico State ranks outside the top 230 in turnover rate forced, and the Aggies allow opponents to shoot 60.2% from inside the arc, so the Bulldogs should use their size to make a living inside the arc tonight.  

DraftKings is the only other shop offering Fresno State at -4.5, but it charges a slightly higher -112 price to back the favorites. All other sportsbooks are at -5, with BetMGM the only one as high as -5.5.

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College basketball best bets made 11/21/2023 at 6:21 a.m. ET.

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