🏀 March Madness Upset Predictions & Picks (Sweet 16): 2026 NCAA Tournament Underdog Tracker

March Madness has been dominated by favorites through the first two rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament - though High Point, Texas, and Iowa have delivered some memorable upsets to shake up the bracket entering the Sweet 16.

We're looking to predict the next one with our March Madness upset picks as we track the best underdog bets for every round. Below, you'll find our Sweet 16 upset predictions along with historical March Madness upset trends and NCAA Tournament history.

🚨 Best March Madness upset predictions: Sweet 16

Here are our experts' best March Madness upset predictions and picks for the Sweet 16. You can also check out all of our college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds for every March Madness matchup.

Outright upset picks (moneyline)

Underdog picks against the spread (ATS)

👠 March Madness upsets 2026: Every lower seeded team that won

Here's a look at every lower-seeded team that won in the 2026 NCAA Tournament:

First round (March 19-20)

Second round (March 21-22)

📅 Sweet 16 schedule: March Madness games this week

Here's a full look at the Sweet 16 schedule this week with tipoff times, TV info, and locations for every NCAA Tournament matchup:

Thursday, March 26

• (11) Texas vs. (2) Purdue | 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) | San Jose, Calif.
• (9) Iowa vs. (4) Nebraska | 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS) | Houston, Texas
• (4) Arkansas vs. (1) Arizona | 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS) | San Jose, Calif.
• (3) Illinois vs. (2) Houston | 10:05 p.m. ET (TBS) | Houston, Texas

Friday, March 27

• (5) St. John’s vs. (1) Duke | 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS) | Washington, D.C.
• (4) Alabama vs. (1) Michigan | 7:35 p.m. ET (TBS) | Chicago, Ill.
• (3) Michigan State vs. (2) UConn | 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS) | Washington, D.C.
• (6) Tennessee vs. (2) Iowa State | 10:10 p.m. ET (TBS) | Chicago, Ill.

🔮 More March Madness predictions

• March Madness Sweet 16 survivor picks
• March Madness second chance bracket picks
• Final Four odds & best bets entering Sweet 16
• March Madness odds, best bet & sleeper

📈 March Madness upset trends: 2026 NCAA Tournament

After a historically chalky NCAA Tournament last year, we've been treated to another this year with the first round dominated by outright favorites - including a day in which the betting favorites went 16-0 straight up as part of a 39-9 run across the first two rounds.

Only three first-round games qualified as upsets by the NCAA’s definition (a win by a team seeded five or more lines lower): No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin, No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU, and No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina. In the second round, Iowa (9) stunned Florida (1) as the only top seed to lose thus far, and Texas (11) extended its "Cinderella" run with an upset of No. 3 Gonzaga.

Even with fewer upsets than normal, the main historical trends still hold: the most reliable upset seed lines are the 12 (over the 5) and the 11 (over the 6). A 12-seed has won at least once in 35 of 41 tournaments played since 1985, including High Point continuing the streak in 2026. An 11-seed has reached the second round in every tournament since 2005 with Texas and VCU both winning their first-round games this year.

Conference tournament performance remains a signal. Teams that enter March Madness on a hot streak after a deep conference tournament run tend to outperform their seeding. Florida rode an SEC Tournament title all the way to the 2025 national championship as an example from the top of the bracket, and Arkansas repeated that formula in 2026 by winning the SEC Tournament and rolling through the first weekend with 94 and 97 points in its first two games.

💡 What is a March Madness upset?

A March Madness upset is when a lower-seeded team knocks off a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. The NCAA's official definition is a win by a team seeded five or more lines below its opponent - so a 12-seed beating a 5-seed counts, but a 9-seed over an 8-seed doesn't.

Upsets are what make March Madness the best event on the sports calendar. They're why you fill out a bracket, why you sweat a first-round game between two teams you've never watched, and why mid-major programs become household names overnight. From UMBC stunning Virginia in 2018 to Fairleigh Dickinson toppling Purdue in 2023, the tournament delivers at least a handful of stunners nearly every year.

For bettors, upset picks are focused on the team with the better price by the March Madness odds for that matchup. A team priced at +200 on the moneyline would return $200 in profit on a $100 bet with an outright win, which is why targeting underdogs is such a popular (and potentially profitable) strategy for March Madness betting.

🆚 History of 12 vs. 5 seed upsets in March Madness

Few March Madness upset predictions are as popular as the 12 vs. 5 first-round matchup, and many people aim to include at least one of these upsets in their annual March Madness bracket predictions.

A 12-seed has upset a 5-seed 58 times since the NCAA Tournament format expanded in 1985. The higher seed owns a 106-58 record in 5-12 matchups over that span, and at least one 12-seed has pulled off the upset in all but six of the last 41 tournaments.

We got one this year (High Point over Wisconsin) and two in both 2024 and 2025, while three 12-seeds pulled the upset during the 2019, 2014, and 2013 tournaments.

Every 12 vs. 5 upset since 2010