🏀 March Madness Upset Picks Today: Best Sweet 16 Underdog Bets

The Sweet 16 promises more evenly matched games than the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament, as only two spreads are greater than 6.5 points and three are 3.5 points or fewer. 

Below, I highlight the best March Madness upset picks for the Sweet 16, including backing No. 9 Iowa to defeat No. 4 Nebraska for the second time this year. I also have my eye on the status of No. 2 Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson, as I make my best March Madness predictions. But the game I'm most excited for features a clash of styles: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston.

🏀 March Madness upset picks today: Best underdog bets for the Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 5.89 units

💰 Best March Madness upset pick today

See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Iowa (+110)

Iowa has already beaten Nebraska this season, and when they played on Nebraska's home floor, it took overtime for the Cornhuskers to secure the win.

Though Nebraska ranks sixth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom and ranks 19th in opponent field goal percentage (40.2%), Iowa shot 48% from the field against the Cornhuskers earlier this season. And in their win, the Hawkeyes overcame 33% shooting by winning the rebounding battle 37-24. With Iowa allowing the third-fewest rebounds per game, this is an area the Hawkeyes will have a massive advantage again.

Our own Shane Thurston covers this game in depth in his Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction.

🚨 More March Madness upset picks today

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Illinois (+136)

Illinois is averaging 13.4 offensive rebounds per game, and the Fighting Illini's ability to create second chances will be the difference in this game. While Houston is allowing the second-fewest points per game and ranks 11th in opponent field goal percentage, the Cougars are susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds, ranking 184th in the country.

These second-chance opportunities will lead to more 3-pointers for Illinois, a team that attempts 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. While Houston is allowing opponents to make just 31.4% of their attempts from deep, Illinois shoots 35% from 3-point range, averaging 11.0 makes per game, the ninth-most in the country.

Thurston took a deep dive on this game too in his Illinois vs. Houston prediction.

Tennessee (+165)

The status of Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson is unknown entering this matchup, even after Jon Rothstein reported that he is "continuing to progress" on Tuesday. Jefferson is the team's second-leading scorer and leading rebounder. While Iowa State had no trouble with Kentucky without him, I think the Cyclones could struggle, whether he plays or not, against Tennessee's 14th-ranked defense.

Tennessee's Ja'Kobi Gillespie has made nine of his 16 3-point attempts thus far. While Iowa State is tied for 12th in scoring defense (65.3 points per game), the Cyclones rank just 74th in opponent 3-point percentage, so I expect Gillespie to continue his hot shooting into Friday.

And finally, Tennessee ranks second in the country in offensive rebounds per game. Iowa State doesn't give up many, but in what should be a very close game, the impact of Tennessee's presence on the glass will be felt.

My Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction breaks down why the Vols should cover the spread, at least. 

🚀 Best March Madness underdog parlay today

None of the three teams I'm backing is a huge underdog, but the price for all three to win at DraftKings is still a very lucrative +1188. DraftKings is offering the best price for this parlay despite BetMGM offering the best price for Tennessee, as DraftKings has the best odds for both Iowa and Illinois.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting March Madness upsets today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I love Iowa based on how they played against Nebraska in the regular season. Even when Nebraska imposed its will at home, Iowa still managed to force overtime, and after their massive win over Florida, I'm willing to risk two units on the Hawkeyes. Illinois vs. Houston will be the game of the Sweet 16. I think Illinois' offense is incredible, but I'm only risking 1.5 units, as Houston has a way of making teams look really bad. As for Tennessee, I'm only risking one unit right now, but if Jefferson doesn't play, I'll risk two.

For more information about every Sweet 16 game, check out the latest March Madness betting trends.

🆚 March Madness Sweet 16 matchups & previews

Here are our Sweet 16 betting previews for every game this round: