🏀 March Madness Survivor Picks Today 2026: Best Sunday Strategy (March 22)
With just eight games left in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, and a difficult set of teams to choose from on Sunday, my March Madness survivor picks today are focused on a pair of No. 2 seeds with challenging paths to the Final Four.
After hitting on Michigan State and Illinois yesterday in relatively stress-free games, Sunday looks like the toughest crop to date for March Madness survivor pool picks, which is why I'm taking a pair of teams that have both been ranked top two in the country at various points this season.
Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
📊 Sunday Survivor Pool Power Rankings: Day 4
For more on survivor pools, check out my March Madness survivor pool strategy guide. Teams I've already used are bolded.
| Rank | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 2 Purdue | No. 7 Miami |
| 2 | No. 2 Iowa State | No. 7 Kentucky |
| 3 | No. 5 St. John's | No. 4 Kansas |
| 4 | No. 2 UConn | No. 7 UCLA |
| 5 | No. 6 Tennessee | No. 3 Virginia |
| 6 | No. 5 Texas Tech | No. 4 Alabama |
| 7 | No. 1 Florida | No. 9 Iowa |
| 8 | No. 1 Arizona | No. 9 Utah State |
🎯 Best Sunday March Madness survivor picks
Best survivor pool pick today: Purdue
There was a point this season where Purdue looked like the most disappointing team in the country. However, the preseason March Madness odds favorites have come alive, winning the Big Ten Tournament and jumping to No. 1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (132.1).
The Boilermakers are the only team in the country that's top 20 in effective field goal percentage (58.1%), turnover rate (13.6%), and offensive rebound rate (36.8%).
And for as impressive as Miami's turnaround has been in Year 1 under Jai Lucas, the Canes are 1-5 against teams ranked in the top 30 in net rating this season.
🏀 All-time assist record for the All-American
In Purdue's opening NCAA Tournament win over Queens, Boilermaker point guard Braden Smith broke Bobby Hurley's all-time collegiate assist record. Our Miami vs. Purdue prediction expects the All-American to add to his total today against a susceptible Hurricanes defense.
Smith is No. 5 in the country in assist rate (43.7%) and is averaging 10.8 apples per game during Purdue's winning streak. Miami is No. 228 nationally in assists allowed per game (13.9).
Safest survivor pool pick today: Iowa State
It might seem a little crazy to tab Iowa State for the safest pick today, given the uncertainty around All-American Joshua Jefferson, who's listed as questionable after injuring his ankle in Round 1. But Jefferson's injury is why the Cyclones are worth taking down rather than saving.
The Cyclones are a top-10 team in the country at full strength (No. 7 in net rating), but if Jefferson can't go or isn't 100% for the Sweet 16 and beyond, Iowa State becomes the riskiest top-two seed on the board for survivor.
Still, against a Kentucky team that's 5-6 since Feb. 14 and needed an impossible buzzer beater to forced OT with Santa Clara, Iowa State shouldn't have much trouble. The Cyclones are No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency (91.4) and No. 4 in forced turnover rate (22.3%).
The Wildcats are a turnover-prone team (16% turnover rate since mid-February), and our Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction expects that to bite them.
Riskiest survivor pool pick today: St. John's
The game of the day on paper is St. John's vs. Kansas. Two championship-winning Hall of Fame coaches, Rick Pitino and Bill Self, are slugging it out with defenses ranked in the top 10 in efficiency. But surprisingly, it's the Johnnies' offense that's more trustworthy today, with the Jayhawks slipping to No. 176 in offensive rating (109.6).
Even with projected top-three pick Darryn Peterson, Kansas is 343rd nationally in effective field goal percentage (45.3%) and averaging 69.2 PPG since Feb. 14.
In that same time frame, St. John's is No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency (88.0) and No. 8 in effective field goal percentage allowed (44.2%).
While our St. John's vs. Kansas prediction projects a 7-point win for the Red Storm, Kansas is too talented a team to feel ultra confident picking against in survivor on the first weekend of the tournament.
🚫 Sunday survivor picks to avoid (March 22)
Have questions, like what is a March Madness survivor pool? We've got answers.
| Rank | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 1 Arizona | No. 9 Utah State |
| 2 | No. 1 Florida | No. 9 Iowa |
| 3 | No. 5 Texas Tech | No. 4 Alabama |
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Arizona
All No. 1 seeds, especially a foursome as dominant as this year's, must be saved until at least the Sweet 16 if you want to win your survivor pool. The Wildcats are an 11.5-point favorite against Utah State as the only team in the country ranked top five in both adjusted offensive (127.9) and defensive (90.0) efficiency.
I can't burn a team this good against a double-digit underdog, especially one that's talented enough to be ranked No. 1 in our March Madness Cinderella Index.
And with the way the bracket is shaping up, with so many favorites winning in the first two rounds, Arizona will be needed next weekend.
So, despite our Utah State vs. Arizona prediction backing the Cats to win by 15, you've got to steer clear of taking them this early.
💵 My survivor picks for March Madness
I'm making two separate survivor pool picks each day for two different survivor pools.
| Round (day) | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Arkansas ✅ | Arkansas 97, Hawaii 78 |
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Vanderbilt ✅ | Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Kansas ✅ | Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Virginia ✅ | Virginia 82, Wright State 73 |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Illinois ✅ | Illinois 76, VCU 55 |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Michigan State ✅ | Michigan State 77, Louisville 69 |
| Round 2 (Sunday) | Purdue | TBD |
| Round 2 (Sunday) | Iowa State | TBD |
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