🏀 March Madness South Region Predictions, Picks & Bracket Preview: 2026 NCAA Tournament

Both teams from last year's national championship landed in the South Region of the March Madness bracket this year, which could lead to one of the best Elite Eight matchups in recent memory if both advance that far in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Florida and Houston are indeed the betting favorites to make it out of the South Region, though they aren't the only teams with Final Four ambitions as Illinois, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt take aim at a deep run in potentially the most wide-open region.

Below, I'm breaking down my March Madness South Region predictions with my picks for every first-round matchup, upset rankings, and best bets to win the region.

🏀 March Madness bracket previews: East | Midwest | West | South

📋 March Madness South Region bracket & first-round matchups

Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 16; all times listed in Eastern Time.

📊 Odds to win the South Region

Odds via DraftKings; see the latest Final Four odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

🔮 South Region predictions for every first-round matchup

Follow all of our college basketball analysis for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

🏀 Florida vs. Prairie View A&M/Lehigh prediction

Florida (26-7) ranks fourth in KenPom's net rankings with a top-10 offense, top-six defense, and the best frontcourt in the country. Whoever wins the First Four - whether it's Prairie View A&M (18-17) or Lehigh (18-16) - faces a tough road ahead. Lehigh's Nasir Whitlock (21.1 PPG, 44.5% from 3) could provide some fireworks, but the defending champs' interior dominance will take over early and often.

Pick to advance: Florida

🏀 Clemson vs. Iowa prediction

The 9-seed is the better team in this matchup, as Iowa (21-12) ranks 25th in adjusted efficiency — 11 spots ahead of Clemson (24-10) — and is balanced on both ends with a top-31 offense and defense. Clemson's top-20 defense gives the Tigers a path, but losing Carter Welling (10.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG) to an ACL tear in the ACC tournament is a brutal blow to their interior depth. The Hawkeyes are the rightful favorite in this one even as the worse seed.

Pick to advance: Iowa

🏀 Vanderbilt vs. McNeese prediction

Vanderbilt (26-8) quietly ranks 11th in KenPom rankings as one of the most underseeded teams in the bracket - the Commodores have the No. 7 offense and just won the SEC tournament, beating Florida by 17 in the semis before slotting into their region in March Madness. Tyler Tanner (19.1 PPG) is an SEC POY contender for Vandy, and while McNeese (28-5) is a legitimate 12-seed with high-major athleticism and a solid top-50 defense, the efficiency gap here is more like a 2-seed vs. a 10-seed.

Pick to advance: Vanderbilt

🏀 Nebraska vs. Troy prediction

Nebraska (26-6) has famously never win an NCAA Tournament game as the only power-conference team without a tournament win. I expect that to change this week: the Cornhuskers own the No. 7 defense in the country while holding opponents to just 30% from 3 all season, while Pryce Sandfort (17.9 PPG, 40% from 3) leads a balanced offensive attack. Troy (22-11) played in the tournament last year but doesn't have the offensive weapons to shuck the Cornhuskers' defense.

Pick to advance: Nebraska

🏀 North Carolina vs. VCU prediction

I hate to say this as a North Carolina graduate, but this is one of the best upset spots in the entire bracket. North Carolina (24-8) will be without star freshman Caleb Wilson for the season, and this team hasn't been the same without him - ranking outside of the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. VCU (27-7) is a top-50 team on paper and just won back-to-back A-10 tournament titles. The gap between these teams isn't great without Wilson, and VCU has an experienced roster to exploit a diminished UNC team.

Pick to advance: VCU

🏀 Illinois vs. Penn prediction

Illinois (24-8) has the best offense in the country (131.2 adjusted points per 100 possessions) behind a balanced attack led by Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG), one of five players scoring in double figures on the season. Penn (18-11) won the Ivy League title and can shoot it from deep, but the Quakers can't defend at a high enough level to keep up with this kind of firepower.

Pick to advance: Illinois

🏀 Saint Mary's vs. Texas A&M prediction

Saint Mary's (27-5) is a top-25 team by advanced stats despite falling to the 7-seed line. Randy Bennett's teams are built for March: slow tempo (65.2), elite half-court defense, and efficient shooting (38.6% from 3). Texas A&M (21-11) is a borderline top-40 team on paper with a preference for a faster tempo. The question is who controls the pace ... and Bennett's teams almost always win that battle. The Gaels' defensive efficiency should be the difference in a game that stays in the low 60s.

Pick to advance: Saint Mary's

🏀 Houston vs. Idaho prediction

Houston (28-6) enters this year's tournament with a top-five defense and an improved scoring attack from last year's runner-up squad. Kelvin Sampson's program plays suffocating defense at the slowest tempo among elite teams (63.4). Idaho (21-14) is making its first tournament appearance since 1990 and doesn't have the profile to trouble the Cougars. Houston should be locked in knowing a potential home-court Elite Eight awaits.

Pick to advance: Houston

🚨 South Region upset rankings

See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

💰 South Region predictions & best bets

See our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

📈 Live South Region odds

See the latest March Madness odds for every team's path to the Final Four.

🏀 More March Madness predictions

Follow all of our college basketball analysis for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

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