🏀 March Madness Predictions Thursday: Expert Picks & Odds for Round 1

It's finally the opening day of the NCAA Tournament, and our March Madness predictions for Thursday include our best bets for all 16 games on the slate.

From the opening tip between Ohio State and TCU at 12:15 p.m. ET to Houston vs. Idaho in the final game of the day, our March Madness bracket predictions cover every matchup.

🕒 Thursday’s March Madness schedule

Check out the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds.

🔎 March Madness predictions: Thursday

TCU vs. Ohio State odds & predictions

TCU vs. Ohio State prediction: Ohio State ML

"Based on adjusted offensive efficiency metrics, Ohio State has recorded four of its six best offensive games of the season since the calendar flipped to March. This stretch started with an 82-74 win over Purdue and featured 90-point efforts against Penn State and Indiana." - via Shane Thurston

Troy vs. Nebraska odds & predictions

Troy vs. Nebraska prediction: Troy +13.5

"Troy returned 44% of the minutes from a team that lost by 19 in the NCAA Tournament to Kentucky. But those Wildcats fared much better than this year’s Nebraska squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (10th vs. 55th) and 3-point shooting (24th vs. 103rd)." - via Mike Spector

South Florida vs. Louisville odds & predictions

South Florida vs. Louisville prediction: South Florida +5.5

"Louisville is a team that can go on a run, but it's also susceptible to an early upset because it lives and dies by the 3-ball. The Cardinals have the fourth-highest 3-point rate in the country, shooting 35.7% from distance. Louisville is 7-8 straight up this year when it shoots worse than 35% from 3-point range." - via Shane Thurston

High Point vs. Wisconsin odds & predictions

High Point vs. Wisconsin prediction: High Point +10

"As was the case last year, you want to back the team with superior talent in a battle of strength vs. strength. The difference is that we are getting +10 for High Point this year, compared to a closing spread of 7.5 against Purdue." - via Shane Thurston

Siena vs. Duke odds & predictions

Siena vs. Duke prediction: Duke -29.5

"This mismatch is one of the biggest reasons there is a plus-42.51 AdjEM gap between the No. 1 and No. 16 seeds, the second-highest all-time. Siena’s undoing will be a defensive turnover rate that lowered to 15.8% in MAAC play (11th-worst), meaning Duke will have plenty of clean possessions." - via Mike Spector

McNeese vs. Vanderbilt odds & predictions

McNeese vs. Vanderbilt prediction: McNeese Under 69.5 points

"The Cowboys lead the country with an average of 21.3 points off turnovers per game. According to BBall Index, their transition offense ranks in the 96th percentile and half-court offense in the 44th percentile." - via Shane Thurston

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds & predictions

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction: Under 143.5

"North Dakota State has the offensive system necessary to space out Michigan State’s defense, ranking in the 93rd percentile in catch-and-shoot rate combined with a 93rd percentile efficiency on such shots. But the Bison also generated many open looks by playing inside-out with an 82nd percentile post-up rate. The Spartans will not have to overhelp on post touches like other mid-majors." - via Mike Spector

Hawaii vs. Arkansas odds & predictions

Hawaii vs. Arkansas prediction: Hawaii +16.5

"Hawaii’s defense ranks in the top 15 in the country in 3-point attempt rate, and the top three in assist rate. And not only are the Rainbow Warriors not allowing long range attempts, but its 3-point percentage defense ranks in the top 30 in the country." - via Mike Spector

VCU vs. North Carolina odds & predictions

VCU vs. North Carolina prediction: VCU moneyline

"The data says that VCU is the better team in this matchup, as North Carolina is without its best player. According to Bart Torvik's ratings, North Carolina ranks No. 38 overall and has gone 5-3 over its last eight games. The Tar Heels are 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency." - via Shane Thurston

Howard vs. Michigan odds & predictions

Howard vs. Michigan prediction: Howard +31.5

"Howard deploys full-court pressure at the ninth-highest rate among all NCAA Tournament teams. The fact that it had a 98th percentile Press Defensive Rating suggests it should press Michigan at a high rate, since it’s without its backup point guard." - via Mike Spector

Texas vs. BYU odds & predictions

Texas vs. BYU prediction: Over 157.5

"The Cougars don't deserve this much respect in the market. According to Bart Torvik's ratings, the Cougars rank 46th in the country since Feb. 15. They are 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span. For comparison, BYU was No. 26 overall and 61st on defense before Saunders went down." - via Shane Thurston

Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's odds & predictions

Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's prediction: Saint Mary's -2.5

"There isn't much separating these two teams, so I think Saint Mary's rebounding advantage will be the biggest difference. The Gaels rank fourth in the country in rebound margin, posting the 15th-best offensive rebound rate and fourth-best defensive rebound rate. For comparison, the Aggies are 284th in defensive rebounding." - via Shane Thurston

Penn vs. Illinois odds & predictions

Penn vs. Illinois prediction: Illinois -24.5

"Penn had a big advantage on the sideline in the Ivy finals in Fran McCaffery who went 5-1 on the Friday-Saturday back-to-backs with no rest while Yale was 1-4. This is obviously a much different scenario with three days to prepare, and the Quakers offense that was 283rd offensively from Jan. 24 to Sunday will not keep up with Illinois." - via Mike Spector

Saint Louis vs. Georgia odds & predictions

Saint Louis vs. Georgia prediction: Saint Louis ML

"The Billikens run a lot of great ball-screen sets, which is why their half-court offense ranks in the 96th percentile, and their man offense is in the 97th percentile (per BBall Index). Georgia ranks in the 58th and 53rd percentiles, respectively, due to its struggles when defending ball screens. If the Bulldogs don't find success with their press, the Billikens will score a lot of points." via Shane Thurston

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga odds & predictions

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga prediction: Gonzaga -10.5 first-half spread

"Gonzaga ranks fourth nationally with a plus-9.4 point margin in the first halves of games. That dominance is due in large part to an offense that averages 41.1 first-half points, which ranks 16th nationally." - via Mike Spector

Idaho vs. Houston odds & predictions

Idaho vs. Houston prediction: Houston -23.5

"If the Vandals use their league-high 45.5% 3-point rate to catch fire from the perimeter, they could make this a game against Houston. But they'll have to get the Cougars defense moving, which Idaho, with its bottom-25 assist rate nationally, will struggle to do." - via Mike Spector

💡 Expert March Madness bracket picks & contests

Here are the rest of our March Madness bracket tips ahead of Thursday's deadline:

• Kalshi Billion Dollar Bracket
• Today's best March Madness bracket contests
• When are March Madness brackets due?
• Free printable March Madness bracket
• Expert March Madness bracket predictions
• March Madness AI bracket predictions

📅 March Madness key dates

• Selection Sunday: March 15
• First Four: March 17-18 (Dayton, Ohio)
• First round: March 19-20
• Second round: March 21-22
• Sweet 16: March 26-27
• Elite Eight: March 28-29
• Final Four: Saturday, April 4
• National championship game: Monday, April 6