🏀 First Round Player Props Today: Best March Madness Prop Bet Picks & Odds (March 19)

Thursday's NCAA Tournament First Round slate has 16 games worth of data to peruse, and offers us our first looks at two No. 1 seeds (Duke and Michigan) and another power conference champion in Arkansas.

Instead of clamoring about how the top seeds will handle playing time if their games turn into routs, my March Madness player props today identifies three players who are appearing in what should be some very competitive matchups.

My five-star play revolves around an explosive South Florida guard in a game that has the day's highest O/U. I also add a wager on a Big Ten team's all-time leading scorer, and one of the most exciting mid-major players in Troy's Thomas Dowd. It's all part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 March Madness player props today: Best bets for First Round (Thursday)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.58 units

💰 Best March Madness player prop 

See all of our March Madness prop bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Wes Enis Over 17.5 points (-110)

Get your track shoes on, as South Florida and Louisville both rank in the 80th percentile or higher in transition rates. If the game does bog down, South Florida is elite in spreading defenses and getting 3-pointers up at a top-100 rate. That is a big reason Enis has an O/U of 3.5 3-pointers made.

The Bulls are not bashful about shooting quickly, averaging the 17th-shortest time of possession on offense. That shot volume combined with Louisville’s weakness of keeping quick guards in front are why I expect a huge game from Enis.

🔥 More March Madness prop bets 

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Thomas Dowd Over 20.5 points + rebounds (-113)

Troy’s Thomas Dowd is one of the most versatile players in the country. He and Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler are the only D-I players to average a 10% offensive rebounding rate and 20% defensive rebounding rate, and also make at least 50 3-pointers.

Dowd ranked second among Sun Belt players in Box Plus Minus (plus-3.9). He also was an “iron man” averaging 40 minutes per game (because it includes five overtime periods) in games against Quad 1 and 2 competition. 

If you’re worried about Dowd’s stats regressing now that he’s facing elite competition, don’t be. He averaged 17.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game against those Quad 1 and 2 teams, and he should be on the floor for all 40 minutes of this one as well.

Bruce Thornton Over 18.5 points (-115)

Bruce Thornton became Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer this year, and almost singlehandedly willed his team into the bracket this year.

Thornton ranks in the 98th percentile in scoring efficiency out of ball screens, and the 87th percentile off the dribble. But instead of tempering expectations for the all-time Buckeye in this matchup as he faces a hard-hedging TCU defense that traps out of ball screens in the 98th percentile, I am optimistic since Thornton has been used off the ball in the 72nd percentile this year (16th percentile rate last season).

This is only a three-star play, as first-half Unders have cashed 60.4% of the time (67-44-3) in NCAA Tournament games played at 1 p.m. ET or earlier since 2012. But I’m expecting Thornton to start strong regardless and carry the Buckeyes again.

🚀 Best March Madness parlay picks

It is not often that one can back the Over on a school's all-time leading scorer at less than his season scoring average, but that is what we have with the third leg of this parlay. Unfortunately I had to sacrifice a point's worth of value at a higher O/U to make this play at FanDuel, as bet365 and other top sports betting sites did offer the combination of Dowd's points and rebounds in one prop.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting March Madness props

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

With my five-star and two-unit play on Wes Enis, I am leaning into the up-tempo nature of both South Florida and Louisville's offenses. It helps to cash this wager to be a part of a game that has the highest O/U of any NCAA Tournament game on Thursday's slate.

My other two plays are standard one-unit wagers. I wouldn't be as keen on betting Dowd's points or rebounds as separate props, as it is difficult to handicap which category has a lower ceiling if he has a poor game by his standards.