🏀 March Madness Favorites Parlay: Can the "Round 1 Chalk" Hold in Saturday’s Round 2?
For the first time since 1992, favorites in the NCAA Tournament went 16-0 straight up yesterday. With the chalkiness of this year's tournament, our March Madness favorites parlay is taking the moneyline favorite in all eight matchups today.
From No. 1 Michigan against No. 9 Saint Louis at 12:10 p.m. ET, to No. 4 Arkansas against No. 12 High Point at 9:45 p.m. ET, we're riding with favorites all day long as part of our March Madness bracket predictions.
💰 March Madness favorites parlay: Saturday Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
| Matchup | Favorite | ML Odds | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 1 Michigan | Michigan | -835 via BetRivers | 89.30% |
| No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 3 Michigan State | Michigan State | -190 via bet365 | 65.52% |
| No. 9 TCU vs. No. 1 Duke | Duke | -750 via bet365 | 88.24% |
| No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Houston | Houston | -500 via bet365 | 83.33% |
| No. 11 Texas vs. No. 3 Gonzaga | Gonzaga | -240 via bet365 | 70.59% |
| No. 11 VCU vs. No. 3 Illinois | Illinois | -550 via bet365 | 84.62% |
| No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 4 Nebraska | Vanderbilt | -125 via bet365 | 55.56% |
| No. 12 High Point vs. No. 4 Arkansas | Arkansas | -700 via bet365 | 87.50% |
🏀 Saturday's March Madness ML parlay: Favorites only (+608)
The spreads aren't nearly as big in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but five of the eight favorites hitting the hardwood on Saturday are double-digit favorites.
No. 1 seed Michigan is the biggest favorite (-12.5) while Vanderbilt is a near pick'em against Nebraska as just a 1.5-point betting favorite.
A winning $10 bet on these 8 favorites to win would return a profit of $60.80.
🔎 Saturday favorites: Matchup analysis & confidence rankings
1. Duke over TCU
Despite Duke struggling with Siena in the first round, the Blue Devils are still one of the three best teams in the country. Duke is top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage (56.4%) and effective field goal percentage allowed (46.2%). TCU isn't in the top 15 in either.
Our TCU vs. Duke prediction projects a 12-point win for Cameron Boozer and Co.
2. Illinois over VCU
Led by projected top 10 pick Keaton Wagler, Illinois is No. 2 in the nation in offensive efficiency (131.8) and turnover rate (13%). The Fighting Illini take on a No. 11 seed VCU team that could be gassed following a 19-point comeback and overtime win vs. North Carolina
Our VCU vs. Illinois prediction projects a 9-point win for the Fighting Illini.
3. Michigan over Saint Louis
For as fun as Saint Louis' offense is to watch with Robbie "Cream Abdul-Jabbar" Avila, the Billikens have yet to face a defense like Michigan's. The Wolverines are No. 2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (89.7) and allow the third-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country (45%).
Our Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction projects an 11-point win for Dusty May's Wolverines.
4. Arkansas over High Point
In an NCAA Tournament that lacks Cinderellas, can High Point be the outlier and push to the Sweet 16? It's doubtful with the way Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. is playing. The SEC Player of the Year has the Razorbacks sitting No. 4 in offensive efficiency (127.9) and No. 1 in turnover rate (12.3%). If the Panthers can't slow John Calipari's team down, they won't be able to keep up.
Our High Point vs. Arkansas prediction projects a 7-point win for the Razorbacks.
5. Michigan State over Louisville
Michigan State has an All-American point guard in Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the country in assist rate (52.6%), and is a dominant offensive rebounding team - No. 9 in offensive rebounding rate (38%). Louisville is still without its star, Mikel Brown Jr., and although the Cardinals beat South Florida in Round 1, Pat Kelsey is now 0-6 ATS in March Madness.
Our Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction projects a close game in what's expected to be one of the best matchups on the slate.
6. Houston over Texas A&M
Although Houston isn't as defensively dominant as it's been in years past, Kelvin Sampson's squad is still No. 4 in defensive efficiency (91.0) and top 15 in effective field goal percentage allowed (46.2%). The Cougars should turn this into a slugfest against an Aggies team that wants to play fast and press.
Our Texas A&M vs. Houston prediction projects a 5-point win for the Cougars.
7. Gonzaga over Texas
This Gonzaga team has been iffy and is without Braden Huff. Meanwhile, Texas has already won two NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Still, the Bulldogs have a defense ranked No. 10 in efficiency, and the Longhorns' inability to force turnovers on defense - No. 350 in forced turnover rate (13.2%) - could bite them against an efficient offense like Gonzaga's.
Our Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction projects a 2-point win for the Bulldogs.
8. Vanderbilt over Nebraska
While Vanderbilt is a 1.5-point favorite, this game is truly a toss-up between non-traditional basketball powers. The Commodores have the offensive explosiveness (No. 8 in efficiency) to push a top 10 Cornhuskers defense, but Nebraska will almost certainly have the majority of the crowd on its side. This is the best game on the slate.
Our Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska prediction expects a close game in what should be a pick'em.
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