🏀 March Madness East Region Predictions, Picks & Bracket Preview: 2026 NCAA Tournament
If you're looking for the region of death in the March Madness bracket this year, look no further than the East Region led by No. 1 overall seed Duke and multiple other teams with the makeup to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The Blue Devils are the favorite to emerge from a loaded region with UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, and St. John's in the mix. Don't sleep on Louisville or UCLA as lower-ranked teams with legit upside in the toughest region.
Below, I'm breaking down my March Madness East Region predictions with my picks for every first-round matchup, upset rankings, and best bets to win the region.
📋 March Madness East Region bracket & first-round matchups
Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 16; all times listed in Eastern Time.
| Matchup | Spread | O/U total | Game info |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Duke vs. (16) Siena | Duke -27.5 | 136.5 | Thu @ 2:50 PM (CBS) | Greenville, SC |
| (8) Ohio State vs. (9) TCU | Ohio State -2.5 | 147.5 | Thu @ 12:15 PM (CBS) | Greenville, SC |
| (5) St. John's vs. (12) Northern Iowa | St. John's -9.5 | 130.5 | Fri @ 7:10 PM (CBS) | San Diego, CA |
| (4) Kansas vs. (13) Cal Baptist | Kansas -13.5 | 134.5 | Fri @ 9:45 PM (CBS) | San Diego, CA |
| (6) Louisville vs. (11) South Florida | Louisville -6.5 | 163.5 | Thu @ 1:30 PM (TNT) | Buffalo, NY |
| (3) Michigan State vs. (14) North Dakota State | Michigan State -16.5 | 143.5 | Thu @ 4:05 PM (TNT) | Buffalo, NY |
| (7) UCLA vs. (10) UCF | UCLA -6.5 | 154.5 | Fri @ 7:25 PM (TBS) | Philadelphia, PA |
| (2) UConn vs. (15) Furman | UConn -20.5 | 136.5 | Fri @ 10:00 PM (TBS) | Philadelphia, PA |
📊 Odds to win the East Region
Odds via DraftKings; see the latest Final Four odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | -135 |
| 2 | UConn | +600 |
| 3 | Michigan State | +700 |
| 5 | St. John's | +900 |
| 6 | Louisville | +1300 |
| 4 | Kansas | +1500 |
| 7 | UCLA | +2200 |
| 8 | Ohio State | +2500 |
| 9 | TCU | +13000 |
| 11 | South Florida | +19000 |
| 12 | Northern Iowa | +25000 |
| 10 | UCF | +45000 |
| 14 | North Dakota State | +50000 |
| 13 | Cal Baptist | +50000 |
| 15 | Furman | +80000 |
| 16 | Siena | +80000 |
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🔮 East Region predictions for every first-round matchup
Follow all of our college basketball analysis for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
🏀 Duke vs. Siena prediction
Duke (32-2) leads the nation with a 38.9-point adjusted efficiency margin, while superstar freshman Cameron Boozer is chasing the highest offensive rating in KenPom history. Even without Caleb Foster (foot) and Patrick Ngongba (foot), the Blue Devils boast a top-four offensive and defensive rating and look like the team to beat in this region. Siena (23-11) simply doesn't have the athletes to keep up in Round 1.
Pick to advance: Duke
🏀 Ohio State vs. TCU prediction
Ohio State (21-12) has the No. 17 offense in the country and wants to push the pace. TCU (22-11) has the No. 22 defense and wants to grind this into the mud. I'm siding with the defense: Jamie Dixon's tournament pedigree is strong, and TCU's ability to compress this into a low-possession rock fight should frustrate the Buckeyes' offense in a close win.
Pick to advance: TCU
🏀 St. John's vs. Northern Iowa prediction
St. John's (28-6) just demolished UConn by 20 points in the Big East final after winning the regular-season title - so why, exactly, are the Red Storm on the 5-seed line? Northern Iowa (23-12) will try to make this ugly with the slowest tempo in the tournament (62.4), and the Panthers' top-25 defense is legit. But UNI's offense ranks just 153rd nationally, and St John's defense is a borderline top-10 unit. I don't expect this to be close.
Pick to advance: St. John's
🏀 Kansas vs. Cal Baptist prediction
Kansas (23-10) enters the tournament with a top-10 defense and projected top pick in Darryn Peterson (19.9 PPG), though the Jayhawks have curiously been a better team with their future lottery pick on the sidelines. It likely won't matter against Cal Baptist (25-8), which is making its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance after a dramatic WAC title game. The Lancers are physical and defensive-minded, but the talent gap is too wide for a program experiencing this stage for the first time.
Pick to advance: Kansas
🏀 Louisville vs. South Florida prediction
This game hinges on Louisville star Mikel Brown's availability. He missed time down the stretch with a back injury, including the entire ACC Tournament, but he's expected to play in his first NCAA Tournament. If he does, Louisville (23-10) is elite on both ends and has too much firepower for South Florida (25-8). USF won the AAC Tournament for its first NCAA bid since 2012 and will push the tempo in this one, but the Cardinals' full-strength roster should handle the pace and the pressure.
Pick to advance: Louisville
🏀 Michigan State vs. North Dakota State prediction
Tom Izzo is 41-17 in first-round tournament games, and Michigan State (25-7) is elite on both ends with the No. 13 defense and No. 24 offense. North Dakota State (27-7) won the Summit League but lacks the scoring punch to challenge Michigan State's defense. The Spartans should control this wire to wire.
Pick to advance: Michigan State
🏀 UCLA vs. UCF prediction
This is probably the closest game in the region by the numbers. UCLA (23-11) boasts a top-25 offense and a coaching advantage under Mick Cronin, who has been stellar as a 7-seed or worse. UCF (21-11) has a capable offense but a leaky defense that ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency and gives up too many easy looks against good offenses. I don't expect that to hold up against the Bruins in the first round.
Pick to advance: UCLA
🏀 UConn vs. Furman prediction
Dan Hurley has already led UConn (29-5) to two national titles in the last three seasons, and this year's team spreads the ball more than either of those championship teams with a comparable defense, too. The Huskies will need to generate more offense to make a deep run, but Furman (22-12) doesn't have the scoring punch to match blows for 40 minutes.
Pick to advance: UConn
🚨 East Region upset rankings
See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
| Matchup | Upset meter | Underdog ML | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| (9) TCU vs. (8) Ohio State | 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 | +124 | 45% |
| (11) South Florida vs. (6) Louisville | 🚨🚨🚨 | +275 | 27% |
| (10) UCF vs. (7) UCLA | 🚨🚨🚨 | +225 | 31% |
| (12) Northern Iowa vs. (5) St. John's | 🚨🚨 | +330 | 23% |
| (13) Cal Baptist vs. (4) Kansas | 🚨 | +400 | 20% |
| (14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Michigan State | 🚨 | +950 | 10% |
| (15) Furman vs. (2) UConn | 🚨 | +2200 | 4% |
| (16) Siena vs. (1) Duke | 🚨 | +3500 | 3% |
💰 East Region predictions & best bets
See our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.
| Prediction | Best bet | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Best Round 1 ATS pick | Louisville -5.5 vs. South Florida (-110 via BetMGM) | If Brown plays, Louisville's full-strength profile is too much for a borderline top-50 team. |
| Best Round 1 upset pick | TCU ML vs. Ohio State (+120 via BetMGM) | TCU's top-25 defense grinds this to its tempo, and Dixon knows how to win in March. |
| Best bet to reach Sweet 16 | St. John's (+105 via FanDuel) | Underseeded at 5, St. John's has the defense to handle both Northern Iowa and Kansas. |
| Pick to win East Region | Duke (-135 via BetMGM) | Duke is the best team with the best player; it's hard to bet against that combo. |
| Best long shot to win East | St. John's (+1200 via BetMGM) | If they beat Kansas, a Sweet 16 date with a shorthanded Duke is genuinely winnable. |
📈 Live East Region odds
See the latest March Madness odds for every team's path to the Final Four.
🏀 More March Madness predictions
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