Duke vs. Tennessee Predictions, Odds & Picks: Public Backing Blue Devils in March Madness for Good Reason

Following a strong run through the ACC Tournament, Duke dominated its opening-round game against Oral Roberts on Thursday. Are the Blue Devils positioned to thrive against the Tennessee Volunteers? Read on for our Duke vs. Tennessee prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

No. 5 Duke and No. 4 Tennessee avoided the first-round upset at the hands of double-digit seeds on Thursday, but they came about their Round of 64 triumphs in vastly different ways. Do recent trends between these two teams suggest an obvious favorite in Saturday's second-round clash?

Here is our best Duke vs. Tennessee prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Duke vs. Tennessee odds

Duke vs. Tennessee prediction

Duke -3.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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While the Blue Devils disposed convincingly of popular public darling Oral Roberts to open their NCAA Tournament run, Tennessee is somewhat fortunate to still be alive in March Madness. The Volunteers put away Louisiana by only a single possession, failing to cover the double-digit point spread.

Duke arguably faced the tougher first-round opponent, with Oral Roberts ranking dozens of spots better than Louisiana in the KenPom metrics. But for all the talk about how the Blue Devils got a bad draw, they simply maintained their remarkable level of recent play.

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Duke has won 10 straight games. It ranks No. 3 in the nation in the Bart Torvik ratings over the past two weeks. Over that same span, Tennessee slots in at 44th in T-rank as the Vols have simply not been the same team without point guard Zakai Zeigler. 

Although I’ll admit to being uncomfortable about riding with the overwhelmingly public side, the line hasn’t moved enough at this point to take us off the Blue Devils. We see it as the public sees it in this scenario, as Duke’s play on both ends of the floor has been too good to ignore. The Blue Devils can adapt their style of play to the matchup at hand and might have Final Four potential written all over them.

Duke vs. Tennessee best odds

FanDuel: Duke -3.5 (-102)

As of this writing, all of our best March Madness betting sites list Duke at -3.5. FanDuel is the lone location to offer odds better than -110. At odds near even-money (-102), the Duke spread is a great value at FanDuel.

At the listed number, I feel confident in Duke icing enough free throws to get the cover. The line would have to move to -4.5 before I start to consider bumping this down to a three-star recommendation.

Duke vs. Tennessee odds analysis

Duke opened as a 2.5-point favorite and has since moved to -3.5 across our best sportsbooks. A whopping 71% of wagers are laying the points with the Blue Devils.

The total opened at 128.5 and has remained locked in at that number across numerous sports betting sites. The Over is backed by roughly 62% of wagers as of Saturday morning.

Duke vs. Tennessee game info

• Date: Saturday, March 18, 2:40 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL

Duke-Tennessee pick made 03/17/2023 at 4:05 p.m. ET.

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