🏀 March Madness Cinderella Index 2026: Ranking the Top 10 Bracket Busters

📊 March Madness Cinderella Index: Top 10 rankings

Teams were graded on a 1-10 scale across six distinct categories, which were then weighted by their historical importance to tournament success.

👉 See which of these long shots is most popular in our expert March Madness bracket predictions.

🧪 Cinderella Index methodology

Advanced stats composite (30%)

• The methodology: Averaged each team's efficiency rankings across KenPom, EvanMiya, and Torvik to identify underseeded programs and filter out teams that have propped themselves up by playing weaker schedules in weaker conferences - this eliminated all but 14 programs from consideration immediately
• Category champs: Utah State & Santa Clara (30.0/30.0) - both programs are in the top 35 of the consensus rankings and are playing closer to No. 7 seeds than No. 9/10 seeds

Round 1 matchup compatibility (20%)

• The methodology: Round 1 matchups are almost as important as the quality of your Cinderella, so taking this into account, I averaged out the efficiency rankings across KenPom, EvanMiya, and Torvik for each program's first opponent
• Category champs: South Florida (20.0/20.0) - The Bulls are playing a Louisville team that's struggled down the stretch, losing four of its last eight games, and is without its star player, Mikel Brown Jr.

Star player power (15%)

• The methodology: Every year, we see stars take over in the NCAA Tournament, and every good Cinderella needs an engine to lean on, so going beyond just basic stats (PPG, APG, etc.), I used EvanMiya's Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) to see which team's star player is most capable of negating a talent gamp
• Category champs: Saint Louis (15.0/15.0) - Center Robbie Avila makes his March Madness debut this year, and he's more than a folk hero, ranking No. 41 in the country in BPR (the best of any non-high-major player)

Coaching Pedigree (15%)

• The methodology: College basketball has always been a coach driven sport, and having a capable bench boss is key to killing a giant, which is why this category took into account career winning percentage, March Madness ATS records and betting trends, and KenPom's four factors rating
• Category champs: Akron (15.0/15.0) - Akron's John Groce has done it before, with a 7-3 March Madness ATS record that includes leading a No. 13-seeded Ohio team to the Sweet 16

Experience & continuity (10%)

• The methodology: Having a veteran team that's played hundreds and hundreds of minutes together can only help with execution in high-leverage moments, so I used KenPom's roster experience and minute continuity rankings to calculate which teams have the most cohesion
• Category champs: Northern Iowa & Miami (OH) (10.0/10.0) - Both the Panthers and RedHawks are top 10 in the country in continuity rating and top 65 in experience rating

Seed, program & conference history (10%)

• The methodology: Certain seeds have a history of making noise in March (like the legendary 12 vs. 5), which is why I considered win/loss records by seed in the NCAA Tournament and first round ATS records by seed, on top of which conferences and programs historically produce Cinderellas
• Category champs: Utah State (10.0/10.0) - Not only are the Aggies the highest rated seed considered for the Cinderella Index (No. 9), they also hail from a historically successful conference (Mountain West)

🔍 Deep dive: The top 5 Cinderella candidates

Utah State (90.0)

• Advanced stats composite score: 30.0/30.0 (T-1st)
• Round 1 matchup compatibility: 18.0/20.0 (2nd)
• Star player power: 13.5/15.0 (T-2nd)
• Coaching pedigree: 9.0/15.0 (T-7th)
• Experience & continuity: 9.5/10.0 (3rd)
• Seed, program & conference history: 10.0/10.0 (1st)

Anyone who watched Utah State this year knows the Aggies deserved at least a top-eight seed. With Mason Falslev and MJ Collins, they have arguably the best one-two punch of any team ranked in the Cinderella Index, and they take on a Villanova team in Round 1 that's sitting behind them in net rating. Don't count Jerrod Calhoun's team out of giving Arizona a scare in Round 2, either; there's a reason the Aggies have the most Quad 1 and 2 wins among mid-major programs (13).

Saint Louis (83.0)

• Advanced stats composite score: 27.0/30.0 (T-3rd)
• Round 1 matchup compatibility: 12.0/20.0 (9th)
• Star player power: 15.0/15.0 (1st)
• Coaching pedigree: 12.0/15.0 (T-3rd)
• Experience & continuity: 7.5/10.0 (5th)
• Seed, program & conference history: 9.5/10.0 (2nd)

Despite a clunky end to the regular season and Atlantic 10 Tournament, Saint Louis looks like a threat to give Georgia fits in Round 1 and maybe even push Michigan in Round 2. Avila is the best mid-major player in the country, and Josh Schertz's fast-paced attack can create plenty of problems for opponents, especially with Cream Abdul-Jabbar spacing the floor. The Billikens are No. 2 in the nation in both effective field goal percentage (59.7%) and effective field goal percentage allowed (44.8%). 

South Florida (82.5)

• Advanced stats composite score: 27.0/30.0 (T-3rd)
• Round 1 matchup compatibility: 20.0/20.0 (1st)
• Star player power: 13.5/15.0 (T-2nd)
• Coaching pedigree: 9.0/15.0 (T-7th)
• Experience & continuity: 4.5/10.0 (13th)
• Seed, program & conference history: 8.5/10.0 (4th)

South Florida has quickly become one of the most popular teams to back for a Round 1 upset, and rightfully so. The Bulls play a Louisville, a team that has slipped to No. 31 in the power ratings over the last month and will be without Brown, a projected top-10 pick.  South Florida has a monster in Izaiyah Nelson anchoring both ends of the court, and as if the Bulls need more motivation, they'll have the crowd on their side in Buffalo, N.Y. Head coach Bryan Hodgson is from the area.

I'm I've been touting the Bulls' first-round upset all week as part of me March Madness bracket predictions.

Akron (82.0)

• Advanced stats composite score: 24.0/30.0 (T-6th)
• Round 1 matchup compatibility: 16.0/20.0 (T-4th)
• Star player power: 10.5/15.0 (T-5th)
• Coaching pedigree: 15.0/15.0 (1st)
• Experience & continuity: 9.0/10.0 (4th)
• Seed, program & conference history: 7.5/10.0 (7th)

All season, it was about Miami (OH) in the MAC, but Akron is the conference tournament champion for a reason. John Groce is one of the best mid-major coaches in the country, and this is his fourth trip to the NCAA Tournament in the last five seasons. This is his best Zips team, too, with Tavari Johnson helping Akron rank top 10 nationally in PPG (88.4), offensive rating (123.1), and effective field goal percentage (58.5%). It doesn't hurt that Texas Tech is down JT Toppin.

Santa Clara (80.5)

• Advanced stats composite score: 30.0/30.0 (T-1st)
• Round 1 matchup compatibility: 14.5/20.0 (6th)
• Star player power: 12.0/15.0 (4th)
• Coaching pedigree: 12.0/15.0 (T-3rd)
• Experience & continuity: 4.0/10.0 (14th)
• Seed, program & conference history: 8.0/10.0 (T-5th)

The West Coast Conference has a strong history of doing damage in the NCAA Tournament with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, but is it finally Santa Clara's turn? The Broncos have one of the most experienced coaches in the country in Herb Sendek, and a young, versatile roster that has taken its game to another level in the last month. Since the beginning of March, Santa Clara is No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency (136.4), which spells trouble for a sporadic Kentucky team in Round 1.

💡 Expert March Madness bracket picks & contests

Now that you know which Cinderella hopefuls to back, here are the rest of our March Madness bracket tips ahead of Thursday's deadline:

• Kalshi Billion Dollar Bracket
• Today's best March Madness bracket contests
• March Madness bracket predictions
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• Free printable March Madness bracket
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• March Madness AI bracket predictions