🏀 Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Sweet 16 (March 28)
No. 1 Texas will look to complete the season sweep of No. 5 Kentucky and advance to the program's third Elite Eight in a row
My best Kentucky vs. Texas prediction as part of our women's March Madness predictions for Saturday's 3 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+) game at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, focuses on Texas' offensive play and how Jordan Lee and her teammates should be able to handle a very good Kentucky defense. Texas is favored by 14.5 points based on the latest women's March Madness odds.
🏀 Kentucky vs. Texas picks & odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas -14.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 131.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jordan Lee Over 13.5 points | +102 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.53u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.35 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Kentucky vs. Texas?
I'm taking Texas to win by 17. Texas was able to beat Kentucky by 11 when leading scorer Madison Booker scored just eight earlier this year, and I don't believe that Kentucky can shut down one of the nation's top scorers a second time.
Score prediction: Kentucky 77, Texas 60
💰 Kentucky vs. Texas prediction & best bet
Over 131.5 (-110)
Kentucky held Texas to just 64 points the first time these teams met, but Texas has scored at least 72 points in nine consecutive games, including four against ranked opponents. Kentucky had a perfect game plan to hold Booker to just eight points, but she's scored in double figures in 34 of her 36 games, and she's averaging 19.3 points per game.
And while Kentucky scored just 53 points in the first game, the Wildcats are averaging 75.5 points per game, scoring at least 71 points in four of five games.
🔥 Best Kentucky vs. Texas player prop bet
Jordan Lee Over 13.5 points (+102)
Lee is averaging 13.5 points per game this season, and she's scored at least 17 in each of her first two games in the NCAA Tournament. While the competition is about to ramp up against Kentucky, Lee scored at least 14 in seven of her games against ranked opponents this season.
In the first meeting between Texas and Kentucky, the Wildcats made it their mission to take Booker out of the game. Because of that, Lee still managed 13 points despite Texas scoring 21.4 points below its season average.
And while Kentucky has a great 3-point defense, holding opponents to just 28.3% from deep, Lee is shooting 35.9% from distance. She attempted eight 3-pointers against Kentucky in the first meeting, and though she only made two, Lee has tallied at least three in the other five games she's put up that many.
🚀 Kentucky vs. Texas same-game parlay
Texas still won by 11 even when Booker scored only eight points. That's why I like the Longhorns to win this game by at least 15. And if the Longhorns win by that much, it will be because the offense, particularly Lee, set the tempo for this game and help push the score over this low total.
💵 Kentucky vs. Texas SGP picks
- Texas -14.5
- Over 131.5
- Jordan Lee Over 13.5 points
Best odds: +437 via Sportsbook (0.5u -> 2.19u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-44 | +33.51 units ✅ | +31.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 26-19 | +20.90 units ✅ | +31.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ✅ | +136.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Kentucky vs. Texas: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Lee has been on fire for Texas, and if she was able to score 13 in a game against Kentucky when Texas only scored 64, then I love her Over ahead of a high-scoring affair. Therefore, I'm risking 1.5 units on her Over.
However, while I'm confident in Texas' offense, I'm only risking one unit on the Over and Texas -14.5, just in case Kentucky's defense really has figured out something against the longhorns and the first game wasn't a fluke.
📊 Live Kentucky vs. Texas odds: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
Texas was originally favored by 15.5, but the spread has dropped to 14.5 at all the best sports betting sites. While Texas has been incredible this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this number drops even lower, considering how close Kentucky played the Longhorns in the regular season.
As for the total, it opened at 131.5, and it hasn't moved. I don't expect it to either, as the public is likely split on whether the great offenses or great defenses will get the better of this matchup.
📺 How to watch Kentucky vs. Texas: Women's March Madness Sweet 16
- Date: Saturday, March 28
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Dickies Arena (Fort Worth, Texas)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN+
Related Articles
