🏀 Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction, Prop & Parlay Today: March Madness Best Bet
Otega Oweh's half-court miracle against Santa Clara was the stuff of March Madness legend - but can the emotional high of a dramatic overtime survival actually fuel No. 7 Kentucky deep into the bracket? That question takes center stage when the Wildcats face No. 2 Iowa State in today's Round 2 showdown at Enterprise Center in St. Louis (CBS, 2:45 p.m. ET).
My answer is no - and I'm backing the Cyclones to win and cover as the 4.5-point betting favorite in my Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction. Iowa State's elite defense alone should be enough to stifle a Kentucky offense heavily reliant on Oweh, whose game is built on midrange pull-ups, dribble jumpers, and transition buckets - all areas where the Cyclones rank among the nation's best at defending. The Wildcats' close call in Round 1 wasn't a coming-out moment; it was a warning sign.
Be sure to check out all of our March Madness predictions
๐ Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks & odds today
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State -4.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 2.2u -> 2u | โญโญโญโญ |
| Kentucky Under 70.5 points | -104 via FanDuel | 1.04u -> 1u | โญโญโญ |
| Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points | -110 via bet365 | 1.1u -> 1u | โญโญโญ |
Total wagered: 4.34 units | Max profit: 4.0 units
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๐ Who will win Kentucky vs. Iowa State?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Iowa State to win this one by eight points. Even with Joshua Jefferson's status looking bleak, the Cyclones should frustrate Kentucky into turnovers and scoring droughts to pull away in the second half.
Score prediction: Iowa State 77, Kentucky 69
Iowa State is Rob Paul's safest March Madness survivor pick for today.
๐บ How to watch Kentucky vs. Iowa State: March Madness Second Round
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
- Spread: Iowa State -5.5 (-118)
- Total: 145.5
๐ฐ Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction & best bet
Iowa State -4.5 (-110)
Kentucky has largely taken care of the basketball lately behind solid play from Denzel Aberdeen, but after a handsy Santa Clara team turned over the Wildcats 11 times on Friday, I have concerns in a matchup against an Iowa State team that forces 15.3 turnovers per game (fifth in the nation).
Iowa State also shoots at one of the best three-point percentages in the nation (38.9%), which it could lean on even more in the event that star forward Joshua Jefferson remains out for this game. The emergence of guards Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon as capable scoring threats should help the Cyclonesโwho have now vaulted up to 17th nationally in KenPom's offensive rating categoryโto feed the machine without Jefferson.
Kentucky vs. Iowa State tale of the tape
| Kentucky | Iowa State | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-17 ATS | 17-17 O/U | Betting records | 21-13 ATS | 15-19 O/U |
| No. 28 (+21.48 AdjEM) | KenPom ranking | No. 6 (+32.42 AdjEM) |
| Mark Pope (career record: 232-133 | MM ATS record: 2-3) | Coach | T.J. Otzelberger (career record: 221-115 | MM ATS record: 7-4) |
| Otega Oweh, G (18.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.6 APG) | Best player | Joshua Jefferson, F (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.9 APG) |
| The Wildcasts have played the No. 6-ranked schedule in strength of schedule rating (+15.92) | Key stat | The Cyclones lead the nation in kill shots per game with 1.24 (a kill shot is a double-digit scoring run) |
| Pope was the team captain of the 1996 Kentucky team that won the NCAA Tournament under Rick Pitino | Fun fact | Forward Milan Momcilovic is the most lethal 3-point shooter in the country, hitting 49.6% on 7.5 attempts per game |
๐ฅ Best Kentucky vs. Iowa State player prop bet
Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points (-110)
Otega Oweh did it all for the Wildcats against Santa Clara, but this matchup against Iowa State reminds me more of the way the Florida Gators limited him to just 10 points in the SEC Tournament in his previous game.
Florida's sixth-best defensive rating (KenPom) in the nation ranks one spot behind Iowa State's unit. Not to mention the way the Cyclones play a significantly slower pace (208th adjusted tempo vs. 26th for Florida) that could further suppress possessions and scoring.
That's particularly likely in that even though Oweh is a contributor to my turnover prognostication, against Florida, he had four giveaways. Prior to his 35 points in Friday's First Round game, Oweh had fallen short of this scoring line in three straight games.
๐ Kentucky vs. Iowa State same-game parlay
Iowa Stateโs defense should disrupt Kentucky, forcing turnovers and making life difficult for the Wildcats - setting up the Cyclones to cover the spread in what projects as a low-scoring game. In line with that outlook, Iโm also backing a player prop with Otega Oweh to come in under his elevated scoring total.
💵 Kentucky vs. Iowa State SGP picks
- Iowa State -4.5
- Kentucky Under 70.5 points
- Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points
Best odds: +240 via bet365 (0.5u -> 1.2u)
๐ต My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 9, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-35-1 | -17.22 units โ | -29.4% โ |
| Game picks | 4-7-1 | -4.7 units โ | -35.6% โ |
| Moneyline | 3-0 | +3 units โ | +75% โ |
| Over/Under | 5-8-1 | -2.83 units โ | -17% โ |
| Player props | 5-7 | -3.73 units โ | -26.3% โ |
| Parlays | 1-12 | -7.81 units โ | -82.2% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting Kentucky vs. Iowa State: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I'm playing Iowa State -4.5 at 2.0 units while backing down slightly in bet size when it comes to Kentucky's team total Under 70.5.
I like the value of that team prop from FanDuel (-104), but I don't want to negate my potential profit from the Cyclones covering the spread by misreading the game flow, given the potential for Kentucky's offense to outperform my expectations for them.
๐ Live Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds: March Madness Second Round
The line indicates that Joshua Jefferson will miss this game, and the books are giving Kentucky a ton of respect here. I anticipate this game ending with a larger margin than what the line indicates, and one of the reasons I am backing Iowa State.
๐ Kentucky vs. Iowa State betting trends
| Kentucky | Statistic | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 22-13 | Record | 28-7 |
| 18-17 | ATS record | 21-13-1 |
| 18-17 | O/U record | 16-19 |
| 28th | KenPom ranking | 6th |
| 120.8 (37th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 124.2 (17th) |
| 99.1 (27th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.5 (5th) |
๐ฎ Today's best March Madness picks
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๐ More March Madness game predictions today
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
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