🏀 Iowa vs. Illinois Player Props: March Madness Elite Eight Picks & Odds (March 28)
Bennett Stirtz and No. 9 Iowa will look to avenge a regular-season loss against David Mirkovic and No. 3 Illinois to continue the Hawkeyes' improbable run to the Final Four.
My best Iowa vs. Illinois player props for Saturday's Elite Eight matchup game at Toyota Center in Houston (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/March Madness Live) focus on Stirtz struggling from the field, Mirkovic grabbing fewer rebounds than expected, and Alvaro Folgueiras continuing to shoot well from beyond the arc. Illinois is favored by 6.5, as I make my best March Madness predictions.
š Best Iowa vs. Illinois player props: March Madness Elite Eight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa | Under 19.5 points (-113 via FanDuel) | 2u ā 1.77u | āāāā |
| David Mirkovic, F, Illinois | Under 8.5 rebounds (-108 via FanDuel) | 1.5u ā 1.39u | āāāā |
| Alvaro Folgueiras, F, Iowa | Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+154 via FanDuel) | 1u ā 1.54u | āāā |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.7 units
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š° Best Iowa vs. Illinois prop bet
See all of our March Madness prop bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Bennett Stirtz Under 19.5 points (-113)
If you read my Iowa vs. Illinois prediction, then you know I expect Illinois' defense to keep Iowa's leading scorer under control. Stirtz is averaging 19.7 points per game, but he's scored 17 or fewer in four of his last five, and he only managed 12 points against Illinois earlier this season.
Stirtz shoots 47.7% from the floor, but Illinois is holding opponents to just 40.7% this season. Considering Stirtz was just 5-of-17 in his first game against Illinois, and he's shooting just 33.3% in the NCAA Tournament, his Under is my favorite prop of the game.
š„ More Iowa vs. Illinois prop picks
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
David Mirkovic Under 8.5 rebounds (-108)
Mirkovic is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game, and he has at least 10 in two of his three games this tournament. But Iowa is allowing the third-fewest rebounds per game (28.6), so I can't justify backing Mirkovic to keep up his excellent work on the boards, especially when most sportsbooks are favoring the Over and inflating its odds to -120 or higher.
I believe this total is too heavily weighing Mirkovic's 12-rebound performance against Iowa earlier this year. Including that game, Mirkovic has only grabbed more than 8.5 rebounds 12 times in 35 contests. Four of those 12 performances came against non-power conference teams, and one came against Alabama, who allows the eighth-most rebounds per game in the nation.
Alvaro Folgueiras Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+154)
Folgueiras is averaging just 1.0 made 3-pointers per game, but in the NCAA Tournament, he's 5-of-12 from deep, making two threes in each of his last two games. He's now made two 3-pointers in three of his last four games, and he's attempted at least four threes in each of those contests.
While Illinois has one of the best 3-point defenses in the country, allowing opponents to make just 30.9% of their shots from deep, the Fighting Illini allow 27.1 3-point attempts per game (338th in the nation) and 8.4 makes per game (tied for 275th nationally).
The first time these teams met, Folgueiras made two of his seven attempts from deep, and that was during a span when he didn't make a 3-pointer in four of five games. He enters this game confident, so I'm willing to take a chance on him, especially for FanDuel's price.
š Iowa vs. Illinois same-game parlay
Both of these teams shoot at a high percentage from the floor, but they also play at a very slow pace. With limited possessions, I expect this game to easily go Under while Stirtz struggles against a very good Illinois defense. While there will be plenty of missed Iowa shots in this game, Mirkovic's rebounding total is way too influenced by his recent performances, rather than what he and Iowa have done all season.
💵 Iowa vs. Illinois SGP picks
- Bennett Stirtz Under 19.5 points
- Under 138.5
- David Mirkovic Under 8.5 rebounds
Best odds: +454 via FanDuel (0.5u -> 2.27u)
šµ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-44 | +33.51 units ā | +31.5% ā |
| Game picks | 26-19 | +20.90 units ā | +31.7% ā |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ā | -37.7% ā |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ā | +136.5% ā |
š” How I'm betting Iowa vs. Illinois props: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I don't like the way Stirtz is playing right now, and considering Illinois already shut him down once this season, I'm willing to risk two units on him scoring below his season average for the fifth time in six games. While Mirkovic has been great on the glass, I'm risking 1.5 units on him to record less than 8.5 rebounds, because Iowa allows so few rebounds. And while Folgueiras isn't a great 3-point shooter, recent March Madness betting trends make me confident in risking one unit on his Over for an excellent price.
šŗ How to watch Iowa vs. Illinois: March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Saturday, March 28
- Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Toyota Center (Houston)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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