🏀 Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction & Picks: NIT Quarterfinals (March 25)
Dayton, one of the best mid-major teams to miss the Big Dance, may just get a shot at Auburn with a win over Illinois State on Wednesday in the NIT quarterfinals. Tipoff from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Dayton is a 7.5-point betting favorite.
My Illinois State vs. Dayton prediction sides with the red-hot home favorite and its undersized leading scorer, Javon Bennett, who is looking to put an exclamation mark on an impressive senior campaign.
🏀 Illinois State vs. Dayton picks & odds: NIT quarterfinals
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton -7.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 140.5 | -110 via Caesars | 0.5u -> 0.45u | ⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.81 units
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🏆 Who will win Illinois State vs. Dayton?
I'm taking Dayton to win by at least eight points - head coach Anthony Grant has his team motivated, and the Flyers' impressive defense and consistent 3-point shooting should overwhelm an Illinois State team that doesn't defend the perimeter very well.
Score prediction: Dayton 77, Illinois State 64
💰 Illinois State vs. Dayton prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Dayton -7.5 (-110)
It's hard to make the Big Dance from the A-10, and Dayton just missed out this year. On the season, Dayton is 35th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.3), per Bart Torvik, and is 30th since Feb. 1 (98.3).
The Flyers lead the nation in free-throw rate on the year, and, since Feb. 1, rank as a top-60 team in 3-point shooting (37.8%). Illinois State hasn't let opponents get to the stripe a lot, but the perimeter defense has struggled lately, ranking 228th (35.1%) through our sample.
Back the Flyers to cover the 7.5 for -110 (52.4% implied probability) at FanDuel.
🏀 More NIT picks
Our Mike Spector also backs the favorite with his Wichita State vs. Tulsa prediction.
🚀 Illinois State vs. Dayton same-game parlay
Let's lock this SGP in at FanDuel - we're backing Dayton to win in a rout, especially on the defensive end. Fading Illinois State by playing it to stay Under 62.5 is a good way to get exposure to Dayton's pesky defenders. Mike Spector features another parlay worth tailing in his NIT quarterfinals picks and best bets.
💵 Illinois State vs. Dayton SGP picks
- Dayton 1H -4.5
- Dayton -13.5
- Illinois State Under 62.5 points
Best odds: +418 via FanDuel (0.25u -> 1.05u)
💡 How I'm betting Illinois State vs. Dayton: NIT strategy
While I'm excited about the NIT tournament, Wednesday's slate is really all about ensuring an interesting semifinal. I'm limiting my action to 1.5-to-2 units on this game in hopes of what should be a far more interesting Dayton vs. Auburn matchup.
📊 Live Illinois State vs. Dayton odds: NIT quarterfinals
Dayton opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this game. Bart Torvik makes the spread Dayton -7, so I'm not surprised to see the line movement in the Flyers' favor - I don't expect more movement, however.
📈 Illinois State vs. Dayton betting trends
| Illinois State | Statistic | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| 22-12 | Record | 25-11 |
| 19-14 | ATS record | 18-18 |
| 14-19 | O/U record | 13-23 |
| 97th | KenPom ranking | 64th |
| 110.6 (147th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 112.5 (115th) |
| 130.2 (66th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 99.6 (30th) |
📺 How to watch Illinois State vs. Dayton: NIT quarterfinals
- Date: Wednesday, March 25
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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