🏀 Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction: Tonight's NIT Quarterfinals Picks, Parlay & Odds
The first of two NIT quarterfinal matchups tips off tonight as Dayton hosts Illinois State at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, with a 7 p.m. ET start on ESPN2. Dayton enters as a 7.5-point favorite, though a few books have pushed the line to 8.
My Illinois State vs. Dayton prediction, part of our NIT predictions, likes the home favorite to get the job done today and punch its ticket to the next round.
🏀 Illinois State vs. Dayton picks & odds: NIT quarterfinals
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton -7.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 140.5 | -110 via Caesars | 0.5u -> 0.45u | ⭐ |
| Javon Bennett Over 15.5 points | -110 at bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 3.17 units
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🏆 Who will win Illinois State vs. Dayton?
I'm taking Dayton to win by at least eight points - head coach Anthony Grant has his team motivated, and the Flyers' impressive defense and consistent 3-point shooting should overwhelm an Illinois State team that doesn't defend the perimeter very well.
Score prediction: Dayton 77, Illinois State 64
💰 Illinois State vs. Dayton prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Dayton -7.5 (-110)
It's hard to make the Big Dance from the A-10, and Dayton just missed out this year. On the season, Dayton is 35th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.3), per Bart Torvik, and is 30th since Feb. 1 (98.3).
The Flyers lead the nation in free-throw rate on the year, and, since Feb. 1, rank as a top-60 team in 3-point shooting (37.8%). Illinois State hasn't let opponents get to the stripe a lot, but the perimeter defense has struggled lately, ranking 228th (35.1%) through our sample.
Back the Flyers to cover the 7.5 for -110 (52.4% implied probability) at FanDuel.
🏀 More NIT picks
Our Mike Spector also backs the favorite with his Wichita State vs. Tulsa prediction.
🔥 Best Illinois State vs. Dayton player prop bet
Javon Bennett Over 15.5 points (-110)
Bennett, Dayton's leading scorer, is averaging 16.3 points per game - and 18.4 points per game in postseason play. That's on significant volume, both in terms of minutes (37) and field goal attempts (12.6).
While Bennett is an undersized guard at 5-foot-10, he hasn't let that hold him back this season. Illinois State's mediocre overall defense and shaky play guarding the perimeter combine to make the odds of a smash game from Bennett high enough to warrant a wager. He has gone Over 15.5 points in four of his five postseason games thus far, so lock him in to do it again for -110 (52.4%) at bet365.
🚀 Illinois State vs. Dayton same-game parlay
Let's lock this SGP in at FanDuel - we're backing Dayton to win in a rout, especially on the defensive end. Fading Illinois State by playing it to stay Under 62.5 is a good way to get exposure to Dayton's pesky defenders. Mike Spector features another parlay worth tailing in his NIT quarterfinals picks and best bets.
💵 Illinois State vs. Dayton SGP picks
- Dayton 1H -4.5
- Dayton -13.5
- Illinois State Under 62.5 points
Best odds: +418 via FanDuel (0.25u -> 1.05u)
🤑 Illinois State vs. Dayton betting splits
| Bet type | % of bets 🎟️ | % of handle 💰 |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois State ML (+275) | 51% | 46% |
| Dayton ML (-350) | 49% | 54% |
| Illinois State +7.5 | 41% | 33% |
| Dayton -7.5 | 59% | 67% |
| Over 140.5 | 73% | 92% |
| Under 140.5 | 27% | 8% |
The betting splits indicate that the sharp money is on the Over here, with 92% of the total action. That is far too much for me to be comfortable, I would take the Under as a contrarian play. -LJ Blut
💡 How I'm betting Illinois State vs. Dayton: NIT strategy
While I'm excited about the NIT tournament, Wednesday's slate is really all about ensuring an interesting semifinal. I'm limiting my action to 1.5-to-2 units on this game in hopes of what should be a far more interesting Dayton vs. Auburn matchup.
📊 Live Illinois State vs. Dayton odds: NIT quarterfinals
Dayton opened as a 5.5-point favorite for this game. Bart Torvik makes the spread Dayton -7, so I'm not surprised to see the line movement in the Flyers' favor - I don't expect more movement, however.
💵 Latest Illinois State vs. Dayton odds & betting splits
| Market | Illinois State | Dayton | Betting splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↔️ Spread | +7.5 (-110) | -7.5 (-110) | 81% Illinois State / 19% Dayton |
| 💵 Moneyline | +260 | -333 | 5% Illinois State / 95% Dayton |
Illinois State is drawing the majority of spread and moneyline action ahead of tonight's tipoff, with 81% of ATS tickets backing the Redbirds. The moneyline is quite heavily leaning the other way, with 95% of the tickets being written for Dayton.
📈 Illinois State vs. Dayton betting trends
| Illinois State | Statistic | Dayton |
|---|---|---|
| 22-12 | Record | 25-11 |
| 19-14 | ATS record | 18-18 |
| 14-19 | O/U record | 13-23 |
| 97th | KenPom ranking | 64th |
| 110.6 (147th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 112.5 (115th) |
| 130.2 (66th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 99.6 (30th) |
📺 How to watch Illinois State vs. Dayton: NIT quarterfinals
- Date: Wednesday, March 25
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
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