🏀 Houston vs. Arizona Prediction: Big 12 Championship Game Odds & Picks (March 14)
The Big 12 Championship Game is arguably the most marquee tilt on Saturday's college basketball slate, as it pits No. 5 Houston against No. 2 Arizona. The Wildcats seek their first-ever Big 12 Championship in this game that tips from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). Arizona is a 2.5-point betting favorite.
My Houston vs. Arizona prediction expects the Wildcats to get revenge for a 72-64 loss to the Cougars in this game last year. I also add my best team prop pick with player props not available as of this writing. It all looks to build upon yesterday's perfect 4-for-4 streak of profitable game prediction articles.
With Selection Sunday just around the corner, our college basketball conference tournament guide has you covered with all you need to know.
🏀 Houston vs. Arizona picks & odds: Big 12 Championship Game (March 14)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Arizona ML (-146 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.69u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Under 138.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1 -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐ |
| Team prop pick | Houston team total Under 68.5 (-114 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.88u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.48 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Houston vs. Arizona prediction & best bet
Arizona ML (-146)
Houston has lost two home games since the start of the 2023 season, and one was this year to Arizona. The Wildcats beat the Cougars without injured star freshman Koa Peat, and his presence in this game makes up for the hobbled Brayden Burries (he played just 19 minutes yesterday) in this rematch.
Peat is a vital weapon to get back against the Cougars defense, as he is the Wildcats’ best passer and shot creator to counter Houston’s hard hedges. But this optimism also comes from Arizona winning despite making just three 3-pointers, as it instead consistently won individual matchups.
Score prediction: Arizona 70 - Houston 66
🔥 Best Houston vs. Arizona team prop bet
Houston team total Under 68.5 (-114)
Houston is by no means an "analytical darling" in this modern age of basketball, as it averages one of the highest percentages of mid-range shots (eschewing the "rim-and-3" philosophy).
Predictably, Arizona bullied Houston in the paint in the first matchup, outscoring the Wildcats 32-to-13 at the rim. I don't see that gap narrowing in this game, with the Cougars being the second-lowest rim rate offense in the country.
Houston's offense is heavily reliant on Kingston Flemings' shot creation, and he scored 17 points on a frustrating and inefficient 6-of-17 shooting night. Arizona also committed just five turnovers in the first matchup, and similar ball security will negate the Cougars' ability to get out in transition.
🚀 Houston vs. Arizona same-game parlay
The stars aligned for the best value and prices on all three legs of this same-game parlay to be housed at the same sportsbook. FanDuel is not only the only top sports betting site offering better than a -150 moneyline on Arizona, but several other sportsbooks have Houston's team total a full point lower at 67.5.
💵 Houston vs. Arizona SGP picks
- Arizona ML
- Under 138.5
- Houston team total Under 68.5
Best odds: +504 via FanDuel (1u -> 5.04u)
💡 How I'm betting Houston vs. Arizona
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Though Arizona's point spread is minimal at -2.5, I prefer to back its moneyline odds in case this game turns into the nail-biter that last night's win over Iowa State was (in which the Wildcats won but didn't cover). I would prefer a point-spread play to anything at Arizona -155 or higher (60.78% implied odds).
I toyed with the idea of making a play on the Under just a half-unit instead of a full-unit wager, since Houston has played six conference teams twice this year, and those opponents equaled or scored more in the rematch on four of those six occasions.
Once player props become available, I will look hard at the Over on Anthony Dell'Orso's points. He scored 22 in the first matchup (mostly out of isolation), and could see an uptick in minutes if Brayden Burries is more hurt than we think.
📊 Live Houston vs. Arizona odds: Big 12 Championship Game
Despite attracting just 54% of the early point spread wagers, Arizona has ticked up from an opening number of -1.5 at most of the best sports betting sites to a unanimous 2.5-point favorite across the market.
Comparatively, the total has been the much more steady number at 137.5, with only FanDuel differing at 138.5 at the moment. The Under has cashed in all four meetings between these teams since Arizona joined the Big 12, so I'd suggest grabbing the 138.5 at FanDuel if you're an Under backer while it lasts.
📈 Houston vs. Arizona betting trends
| Houston | Statistic | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 28-5 | W-L record | 31-2 |
| 16-17 | ATS record | 19-14 |
| 13-20 | O/U record | 16-17 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
📺 How to watch Houston vs. Arizona: Big 12 Championship Game
- Date: Saturday, March 14
- Tipoff: 6 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
Related Articles
