Gonzaga vs. Kentucky Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Dec. 5

My Gonzaga vs. Kentucky prediction breaks down this non-conference matchup between two ranked teams as part of the Music City Madness event, which tips off from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2). 

No. 11 Gonzaga is looking to hand No. 18 Kentucky its second straight loss to a ranked team this week as a 4.5-point betting favorite. The fact that this game is being played at a neutral site with the Bulldogs coming off a long layoff has me leaning to the Under, which cashed easily in the Wildcats’ three-point home loss to North Carolina earlier this week.

✅ Gonzaga vs. Kentucky predictions

🏀 Gonzaga vs. Kentucky best bet & score prediction

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⬇️  Under 158.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gonzaga has had nine days off since its last game, a 101-61 loss to Michigan in the Players Era Festival, which was the Bulldogs’ first 40-point loss since 1990. Kentucky is a little fresher, having played on Tuesday night, losing 67-64 to North Carolina and falling to 5-3 against the Tar Heels at Rupp Arena all-time. 

While I would not put anyone off backing Gonzaga since Kentucky is 0-3 with a minus-28 point differential against ranked teams, both squads’ lack of offensive success in their previous games suggests another defensive struggle is in store.

Poor shooting against quality competition

Kentucky’s game against North Carolina featured 14 lead changes and nine ties. But even though the Wildcats' defense forced the Tar Heels to miss eight of their first 10 shots, they were still lucky the game was close at the end.

Kentucky went more than a quarter of the game (10:25) without a field goal. It was also 0-for-8 from beyond the arc in the first half, and 1-for-13 from 3-point range overall.

The Wildcats were also fortunate the game was tied at halftime, as they were out-scored 28-14 in the paint, and totaled zero fast-break points.

Getting out in transition (and similarly limiting Gonzaga in transition) will be key to Kentucky’s success, as the Bulldogs have a better half-court defense in nearly every single metric than the Tar Heels team that just held it to 64 points.

On Gonzaga’s side, it is difficult to know whether its shooting 33.3% from the field and 16.7% from 3-point range in the first half against Michigan was a product of being bothered by the Wolverines’ elite length, tired legs from playing three games in three days, or both.

Either way, the Bulldogs have some rust to kick off with this being their first game in nine days. This is a tough spot for them to get their offense going after a long layoff, especially since the Under has cashed in 58.8% of their games against ranked opponents since 2023.

The O/U is at 157.5 on the low end of the market, so I am taking advantage of the extra point of value through FanDuel’s -110 odds. That price carries a 52.38% implied probability and would net $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

Score prediction: Gonzaga 79, Kentucky 76

🆚 Gonzaga vs. Kentucky matchup to watch

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Graham Ike vs. Kentucky frontcourt

Much of Kentucky’s loss to UNC can be pinned on it being bullied down low. UNC secured a season-high 20 offensive rebounds to Kentucky’s eight. It had 12 offensive rebounds from just its starting frontcourt, and held an overall 41-30 rebounding edge. That led to a season-high 22 second-chance points for the Tar Heels.

Kentucky was also out-rebounded by 12 in its second loss to Michigan State, and Louisville totaled 40 rebounds in its first loss. 

That bodes well for a big game on the glass from Gonzaga’s Graham Ike, who has nine-plus rebounds in five games this year. He ranks in the top 75 of all D-I players in defensive rebounding rate, so any offensive boards he grabs will be an added bonus.

Best prop bet: Graham Ike Over 7.5 rebounds (-135 via bet365)

📊 Gonzaga vs. Kentucky odds

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📺 How to watch Gonzaga vs. Kentucky

• Date: Friday, Dec. 5
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN2