🏀 Georgia Southern vs. Troy Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 9)

The Sun Belt championship game will pit the top-seeded Troy against No. 10 Georgia Southern at 7 p.m. ET on Monday in the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Fla., on ESPN.

After winning five games in as many days to reach the Sun Belt final, the Eagles are at a significant disadvantage as I make my Georgia Southern vs. Troy prediction. I expect the Trojans to be in complete control from start to finish as a 6.5-point favorite. 

  For more on today's college basketball slate, see Rob Paul's conference tournament guide.

🏀 Georgia Southern vs. Troy picks & odds today: March 9

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.18 units

💰 Georgia Southern vs. Troy prediction & best bet

Troy to win halftime/fulltime (-120)

I like Troy's halftime/fulltime odds and first-half team total, especially since they are the same odds and are correlated.

The Trojans should have no problem setting the tone against an exhausted Eagles squad. Troy has only played one Sun Belt tournament matchup, while Georgia Southern will be playing its sixth game in as many days.

I expect Troy to race out to an early lead, scoring at ease against a Georgia Southern team that ranks 311th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 35th in tempo. Troy had a 47-38 lead at the break when they met in the regular-season meeting.

Score prediction: Troy 78, Georgia Southern 71

🔥 Best Georgia Southern vs. Troy player prop bet

Victor Valdes 15-plus points (+104)

I'm targeting Troy forward Victor Valdes to lead the way in the Sun Belt championship game. FanDuel offers a +104 price on him scoring 15-plus points in the alternate market.

Valdes is averaging 14.9 points per game this season while commanding high usage on this team. According to KenPom, Valdes leads the team in percentage of shots (26.1%) and percentage of possessions (31.4%).

In the regular-season matchup with Georgia Southern, Valdes scored a game-high 22 points on 6-of-14 shooting. I wouldn't be surprised by a similar showing on Monday.

🚀 Georgia Southern vs. Troy same-game parlay

Books won't let us parlay the double result market, so my Georgia Southern vs. Troy SGP had to get creative. I've put together a parlay of Troy moneyline and its first-half team total, while also sticking with 15-plus points for Victor Valdes. These three legs follow my projected game script for the Sun Belt final.

💡 How I'm betting Georgia Southern vs. Troy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

It should become clear that I have strong conviction in my handicap of tonight's Sun Belt title game, which is why I've allocated 2.5 units in a specific game script.

Tournament settings can create interesting betting opportunities, as teams find themselves in unique positions. In this case, Georgia Southern's incredible run has put the team in a tough spot against the league's top squad. Troy has a huge rest advantage heading into tonight's matchup.

That's why I think there is immense value in backing the Trojans, especially within the game prop market after the main markets were steamed in favor of the better team. The game props haven't adjusted enough to reflect the reality of the situation.

📊 Live Georgia Southern vs. Troy odds

Troy opened as a 4-point favorite, but the line has climbed to 6.5 as of Monday morning. The total has dropped from 151.5 to 150.

Both movements indicate that bettors agree with the idea that Georgia Southern might not have the legs for tonight's matchup.

📈 Georgia Southern vs. Troy betting trends

📺 How to watch Georgia Southern vs. Troy

• Date: Monday, March 9
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Pensacola Bay Center (Pensacola, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN2