🏀 First Round Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Predictions Today (March 19)
Sixteen games today send March Madness off and running, with the marathon of a slate beginning at 12:15 p.m. ET and playing through the latest 10:10 ET tip.
My First Round picks for Thursday add a total, full game spread, and first half spread to our extensive list of March Madness predictions. My top play gets onside one of the most talked about upset picks in a 6 vs. 11 matchup. I also make my best play in a popular 5 vs. 12 matchup, and add a wager involving Tom Izzo's Michigan State squad.
🏀 First Round picks & best bets today: March Madness (March 19)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Pick | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida vs. Louisville | South Florida +5.5 (-112 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| McNeese vs. Vanderbilt | Over 150.5 (-105 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| North Dakota State vs. Michigan State | North Dakota State +9.5 first half spread (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.85u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.69 units
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💰 Best First Round bet today
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
South Florida +5.5 (-112)
The $1,000,000 question entering this game is how is Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr.’s back doing? Louisville is just 7-5 in games without Brown, and he has missed four straight.
Even if Brown plays, this isn’t the best way to ease him back, as both teams rank in the 80th percentile in transition rate. South Florida also has lightning quick guards in Wes Enis and CJ Brown to contend with on the perimeter.
The Bulls will put relentless pressure on the Cardinals, using a Nate Oats-infused offense that ranks in the 97th percentile in rim and catch-and-shoot rates.
🔥 More First Round picks today
McNeese-Vanderbilt Over 150.5 (-105)
McNeese makes hay on defense creating turnovers and stealing the basketball at D-I’s highest rate. It amplifies those rates by utilizing a full-court press the fourth-highest percentage of the time out of all NCAA Tournament teams, and does so at a 98th percentile Press Defensive Rating. The problem is Vanderbilt is equipped to slice up the Cowboys’ pressure, as it ranks ninth in the country in points per possession in press offense.
Led by one of the best duo of guards in the country in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, Vanderbilt ranks seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It also proved that length, which McNeese has plenty of, isn’t an issue as it scored 1.42 points per possession in the SEC Tournament against a Florida team that is the 13th-tallest in the country.
North Dakota State +9.5 first half spread (-118)
Michigan State had a lot more rest than it usually gets before the NCAA Tournament after it was one and done in the Big Ten Tournament. But that also likely threw Tom Izzo’s routine for a loop, and he just happens to be facing one of the best first-half teams in the country.
The Bison covered the first half spread in 24 of their 34 games, and are 15-5 to the first half spread in non-home games.
I’m not backing North Dakota State for the full game, as this is its first game against a top-100 KenPom opponent. It also went 1-4 in five games played against teams that ranked in the top half of the country in average height, while the Spartans sit as the 22nd-tallest team. But the Bison are good enough to stay close for a half, especially since they’re not overly reliant on the 3-point shot.
🚀 Best First Round parlay picks today
South Florida is what I would consider the only "trendy" pick of this parlay, as I tried to identify two other legs that may have flown more under the radar and were not as heavily impacted by the public. There is also a great variety of plays, with no two wagers falling under the same category.
💵 Best First Round parlay today
- South Florida +5.5 (-114)
- McNeese-Vanderbilt Over 150.5 (-105)
- North Dakota State +6.5 first half spread (-118)
Best odds: +577 via FanDuel (1u -> 5.77u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.1 units ✅ | 21.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units ❌ | -57.8% ❌ |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.7 units ✅ | 79.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting the First Round today: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
South Florida is my favorite play of the day, and will also be one I will be looking into betting live. With how much both the Bulls and Louisville like to shoot 3-pointers, there are likely to be heavy swings in this contest, potentially with the underdogs drifting as high as double-digits.
I may do the same in-game betting with McNeese-Vanderbilt, especially if the game starts slow, as the first half O/U is 70.5 (way less than half the full game total of 150.5).
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